Serbia vs. Australia Prediction, Odds, Picks: Men's Olympic Basketball, Aug. 6

Serbia and Australia are still among the biggest long shots by the Olympic men's basketball odds, but one of them will punch their ticket to the semifinals at Paris 2024 when they meet Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET at AccorHotels Arena.

Serbia is favored by 6.5 points to beat Australia according to our best sports betting sites. Our Serbia vs. Australia prediction and expert picks share in that confidence for Tuesday's favorites, led by NBA MVP odds favorite Nikola Jokic.

Serbia vs. Australia predictions for Tuesday

Serbia vs. Australia odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Serbia -6.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Serbia 1Q -1.5 (-125) ⭐⭐⭐
• Bogdan Bogdanovic leading scorer (+300) ⭐⭐

Prediction: Serbia -6.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Most of our best sportsbooks have Serbia favored by 7.5 points, so this is a relative bargain on a team that has proven its mettle in this tournament.

Sure, the Serbs lost by 26 points to Team USA, but they matched the Americans point-for-point when Jokic was on the floor. Then they walloped Puerto Rico and South Sudan by a combined 52 points in a tune-up for the quarterfinal. 

Meanwhile, Australia couldn't hold on against Canada or Greece to close the group stage, and I don't see the Boomers having the requisite size inside - Jock Landale isn't doing it for me - to hold serve with Jokic and Co. for 40 minutes.

Odds: -110 | Implied probability: 52.38%

Prediction: Serbia 1Q -1.5 ⭐⭐⭐

The one area where Australia has a clear advantage is its bench unit, as it boasts a much deeper rotation than a Serbian squad led by Jokic, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and a cast of characters only the most dedicated basketball fans would recognize.

That's why I'm particularly intrigued by this first-quarter bet on the Serbs, who should get off to a hot start before ceding some minutes to the second unit. These -125 odds are a bit short for my liking but would still return an $8 profit on a $10 wager.

Odds: -125 | Implied probability: 55.56%

Prediction: Bogdan Bogdanovic leading scorer ⭐⭐

This is a volatile market where unit size should be diminished, hence the two-star endorsement. But I'm still surprised to see Bogdanovic dealing at these odds to lead all scorers on Tuesday.

For all of Jokic's brilliance, his lesser-celebrated teammate has led Serbia in scoring (19 PPG) in this tournament. It's notable that in the only truly competitive game that this team has played, Bogdanovic led the way with 30 points on 14 attempts, including a blistering 6-for-9 from deep.

I don't expect that sort of output against Australia, but he's a solid bet to pace his team (and the entire field) at these +300 odds, which would turn a $10 bet into a $30 profit.

Odds: +300 | Implied probability: 25%

Serbia vs. Australia odds & game info

• When: Tuesday, Aug. 6
• Tip-off: 8:30 a.m. ET
• Where: AccorHotels Arena (Paris)
• How to watch: Peacock (streaming)
• Favorite: Serbia -6.5 (-110)

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