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France vs. Germany Prediction, Odds, Picks: Men's Olympic Basketball Semifinal, Aug. 8

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: August 7, 2024 4:11 PM EDT • 2 min 15 sec read.

Germany forward Moritz Wagner (13) shoots against France power forward Victor Wembanyama (32) as we offer our best France vs. Germany prediction and expert picks for Thursday's Olympic men's basketball semifinal in the Paris 2024 Olympics.
Germany forward Moritz Wagner shoots against France power forward Victor Wembanyama. Photo by John David Mercer / USA TODAY Sports via Imagn.

After Germany beat France by 14 points to win Group B of the Olympic men's basketball tournament, those two meet again Thursday at 11:30 a.m. ET at AccorHotels Arena in Paris as we offer our France vs. Germany prediction and expert picks.

Germany is favored between 4.5 and 5.5 points across our best sports betting sites to beat France and advance to the gold medal game, though both teams are still a massive long shot to outlast Team USA by the men's Olympic basketball odds.

Don't miss my USA vs. Serbia prediction for the other semifinal.

France vs. Germany predictions for Thursday

France vs. Germany odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

  • Germany -4.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Germany Over 81.5 points (-104) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Victor Wembanyama Under 17.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Prediction: Germany -4.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I had my doubts about Germany coming into this tournament, but it's won every game by 13-plus points behind the stellar offensive play of Franz Wagner (20.8 PPG), and Dennis Schroder (18 PPG, 8.8 APG).

It's been a much rockier run for the French, who have been challenged by top teams and long shots alike. They're also still figuring out the right lineup combinations, with defensive stud Rudy Gobert and shooting guard Evan Fournier hitting the bench in a hard-fought win over Canada.

Less Gobert might mean more versatility and adaptability for France in this rematch, but I still don't see a compelling reason not to back the Germans at this number, which is an outlier among the lines offered across our best sportsbooks.

Odds: -110 | Implied probability: 52.38%

Prediction: Germany Over 81.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

France came into this tournament boasting what should have been the tournament's best defense with Gobert and Victor Wembanyama roaming the paint. Instead, the French have allowed 78.5 PPG and likely won't rely much on Gobert on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Germany is averaging 86 points in this tournament and scored 85 in the first matchup with France. If Gobert's role is reduced, that could help the French defend the perimeter but should mean a more free-flowing game, too, which would help the Germans clear this total for the fourth time in five contests.

Odds: -104 | Implied probability: 50.98%

Prediction: Victor Wembanyama Under 17.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Wembanyama is one of the fastest risers in the NBA MVP odds, and he's shown flashes of brilliance in this tournament. But he's been far from perfect in his home country.

The French phenom is averaging just 14.5 points in this tournament, and he's coming off his worst showing of the Olympics against Canada, when he scored seven points on 20% shooting. He also fell below this total in the first game against Germany, when he scored 14 points while shooting 5-for-11 from the floor.

This is a massive number for him to clear in the semifinal. While he has the talent to do so, I'd rather fade the wunderkind at these -115 odds, which would profit $8.70 on a $10 bet if he falls short of this mark for a third straight game.

Odds: -115 | Implied probability: 53.49%

France vs. Germany odds & game info

FranceGermany
Moneyline+165-200
Spread+4.5 (-110)-4.5 (-110)
Over/UnderOver 156.5 (-110)Under 156.5 (-110)
  • When: Thursday, Aug. 8
  • Tip-off: 11:30 a.m. ET
  • Where: AccorHotels Arena (Paris)
  • How to watch: NBC, Peacock (streaming)
  • Favorite: Germany -4.5 (-110)

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is a publishing editor and lead writer for Sportsbook Review. An award-winning writer, reporter, and editor with a decade of sports media experience, "C-Jax" has worked with ESPN, Forbes, theScore, and various daily newspapers before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's a proud graduate of the University of North Carolina, where he served as a beat writer for the Tar Heels' championship run through the NCAA men's basketball tournament in 2017. Jackson has spent the last five years covering sports betting as a predictive analyst, features writer, and industry reporter. Since joining the team in 2023, he's played a key role in Sportsbook Review's coverage of the Super Bowl, March Madness, and NBA playoffs while serving as the lead writer for the growing WNBA and NASCAR betting scenes. Though he's cashed some big bets over the years -- including Lamar Jackson to win MVP (twice) -- he's still haunted by enough second-place bet slips to wallpaper his home office. While Jackson is a committed "process over results" bettor with a keen eye for advanced stats and subtle bias in futures markets, he also embraces sports betting as a vehicle for entertainment and personal investment. He's written about everything from hot dogs to groundhogs and still hasn't forgiven his "inside source" for a sabotaged bet on the Gatorade color in Super Bowl LV.