Nuggets vs. Suns NBA Player Prop Picks & Odds for Tonight's Christmas Day Clash
Last Updated: December 25, 2024 4:51 PM EST • 3 min 54 sec read.
The 16-11 Denver Nuggets face the 14-14 Phoenix Suns at Footprint Center in Phoenix (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), and the NBA Christmas Day odds have the home team as the 2.5-point underdogs.
The Nuggets have the sixth-shortest NBA championship odds entering the festive clash, and we expect Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. to hit the Over on their point totals for the visitors in our Nuggets vs. Suns NBA player prop picks.
We also expect Kevin Durant to enjoy a bounce-back outing after his disappointing showing on Monday against these same Nuggets. Durant has been markedly more productive at home, and we think that trend will continue.
Nuggets vs. Suns updated betting info
The Nuggets are one of the most bet teams to win on Christmas Day at BetMGM, and so are the Golden State Warriors. However, we went against the grain, backing Los Angeles in our Lakers vs. Warriors prediction.
The Nuggets opened as 1.5-point underdogs but have moved to 2.5-point favorites in the lead-up to tonight's contest, with 81% of the bets on Denver to cover on the road.
The Over/Under opened at 232.5, where it has remained, and 52% of the bets are on the Over. Denver's moneyline odds have shortened from -105 to -145, while Phoenix saw its odds go from -115 to +120.
Nuggets vs. Suns player prop picks today
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best NBA betting sites and subject to change.
- Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 points () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Kevin Durant Over 29.5 points () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Michael Porter Jr. Over 15.5 points () ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
See our NBA player prop odds tool for the latest odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.
Best Nuggets vs. Suns prop predictions
Nikola Jokic prop pick: Over 29.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Jokic finished with a triple-double on Sunday, but he produced a season-low nine rebounds + assists during Monday’s massive win over the Suns.
His rebounds and assists have been inconsistent lately, but his scoring has been steady, so that’s where we’ll turn our attention.
The big man is averaging a career-best 30.9 points per game this season, and he's needed to shoulder a heavy load offensively due to a thin Nuggets depth chart. Jokic has scored 30-plus points in half of his 24 games this season.
Home-road splits are important here, as Jokic is averaging 33.3 points on the road compared to just 28.6 at home.
He’s tallied at least 30 points in six of 12 away from Ball Arena, and the NBA MVP odds favorite will look to build on the 32-point effort Jokic delivered Monday against the Suns.
Kevin Durant prop pick: Over 29.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -122 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.95%
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Durant registered only 23 points during Monday’s loss to Denver, but the Nuggets ran the Suns out of the gym in a 117-90 win at Ball Arena. The rematch on Wednesday shifts to Footprint Center, where the contest should be a bit closer.
Durant has been scoring more at home (28) than on the road (25.3) this season, so we’ll bet on him getting back on track in Phoenix. He’s scored 30-plus points in nine games this season, including seven of 12 at home.
The Nuggets have allowed the eighth-most points per game (116.3), and Durant scored 30-plus points in all three games against Denver last season. We’re expecting him to put together a strong performance again tonight.
Michael Porter Jr. prop pick: Over 15.5 Points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -109 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.15%
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The Suns are a top-five team in 3-point percentage allowed, and opposing sharpshooters have been enjoying themselves. MPJ is one such long-range specialist in line for a big game against the Suns on Christmas.
MPJ finished with 24 points during Monday’s victory over Phoenix, keeping his hot streak against the team going. Porter averaged 19.4 points in five matchups with the Suns last season, scoring 18-plus points each time out.
Porter is averaging a career-high 18.3 points per game this season, and his scoring prop is set incredibly low. He’s registered at least 16 points in 20 of 27 games, making this an excellent value play and our favorite prop for the game.
Nuggets vs. Suns live odds & info
- When: Wednesday, Dec. 25
- Tipoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Footprint Center (Phoenix)
- How to watch: ABC/ESPN/ESPN+
- Favorite: Nuggets -2.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
Nuggets vs. Suns injuries
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Zachary Hanshew
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