2024 Men's Olympic Basketball Odds & Favorites: USA Favorite with Serbia Up Next in Semifinals

With just four teams left, the Olympic men's basketball tournament odds from our best sports betting sites expect yet another gold for Team USA.

The Americans are just two wins away from winning their fifth straight gold medal thanks in part to boasting its best roster since the "Dream Team" won gold in 1992. Dealing at -700 via our best sportsbooks to add to their record-setting 16 gold medals in the Olympic men's basketball tournament, the Americans play Serbia in the semifinals.

After Team Canada - viewed as the biggest challenger to the USA - was upset by France in the quarterfinals, Germany is now expected to be the biggest competition for LeBron James and Co.

While we expected a path to the title for the USA in our men's Olympic basketball predictions, don't sleep on a deep international field that includes MVP winner Nikola Jokic (Serbia) and rising star Victor Wembanyama (France), and other NBA talent.

For more on the women's side, be sure to check out our 2024 women's Olympic basketball odds and favorites.  

2024 Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament odds, betting lines

(Odds from our best sports betting apps as of Aug. 7; all times displayed in Eastern Time)

Thursday, Aug. 8

Germany vs. France (11:30 AM)

• Point spread: Germany -5 (-110), France +5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Germany -185, France +154
• Total: Over 157 (-112), Under 157 (-108)

Serbia vs. USA (3 PM)

• Point spread: USA -16.5 (-108), Serbia +16.5 (-112)
• Moneyline: USA -1450, Serbia +850
• Total: Over 187 (-110), Under 187 (-110)

Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament odds 2024

(Men's Olympic basketball odds as of Aug. 7)

2024 Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament favorites

USA (-700)

Team USA already had an embarrassment of riches entering this tournament - so much so that Jayson Tatum didn't even play in his team's 110-84 opening win over Serbia.

Then coach Steve Kerr switched up the rotation ahead of Wednesday's 103-86 win over South Sudan, inserting Tatum and Anthony Davis into the starting five. It seemingly doesn't matter which of the 12 stars on this roster play what minutes - they're virtually impossible to stop.

That dominance continued in the closing game of Group C action with USA beating Puerto Rico by 21 after a sluggish start. The win was led by Anthony Edwards with 26 points off the bench, and five others finished with double-digit points.

In its quarterfinals matchup against Brazil, victory was never in doubt for Team USA as it cruised to a 122-87 win behind a nine-assist performance from James. He along with Devin Booker (18 points) and Anthony Edwards (17 points) made it look easy.

The Americans have claimed gold in seven of the last eight Olympic Games dating back to 1992 - the first time NBA players were eligible to compete. The "Dream Team" won handily that year and sparked a three-decade run that will be tough to stop this summer.

At this point the bigger question should be which member of Team USA will win MVP when this roster inevitably wins gold. Speaking of MVP, they'll have to beat Serbia and Jokic first to advance to the gold medal game.

Odds: -700 | Implied probability: 87.50%

Germany (+800)

Germany opened as a relative long shot to win this tournament, but it's shot up the oddsboard after sweeping Group B.

The Germans, led by Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder, blew out Japan by 20 points before notching a 13-point win over Brazil. It's big test came against France on Friday when the Germans managed a 14-point win.

That performance really let the rest of the world know that this team's for real and has a good chance to leave Paris with a medal. Leading the way in the 85-71 win were Wagner and Schroder, who combined for 52 points.

Those two continued to carry the load in Germany's 76-63 quarterfinals win over Greece. Wagner put up 18 while Schroder finished with 13 points and eight assists.

The German's look ready to bring home a medal for the first time ever. But will they be able to beat France to guarantee a medal?

The French were impressive against Canada and Wembanyama is a problem, but Wagner and Schroder have been among the 10 best players in Paris. And they already beat France by 14 in group play.

Odds: +800 | Implied probability: 11.11%

Serbia (+2000)

Look, I get that losing by 26 points in the opener isn't exactly going to inspire bettors about Serbia. But I was at least intrigued by how they played with Jokic on the court.

In those minutes, the Serbians matched the Americans blow for blow, playing to an 81-81 draw in his 31 minutes. In his nine minutes on the bench, though, Jokic's side was outscored 29-3 in a defining stretch for Team USA in what was ultimately a blowout margin.

Obviously, that's not ideal for Serbia's bench, but I also think that's an issue for every team in this tournament against USA. Jokic and Co. still feel like a relative value at this price compared to the rest of the field.

Since the loss, Serbia has blown out Puerto Rico, 107-66, and beat South Sudan by 11 to punch their ticket to the quarterfinals. Jokic is averaging 19.2 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 7.2 assists per game, was the difference against an Australia team that overachieved in the quarterfinals.

The Aussies sent the game to OT, but Jokic was unstoppable and finished with 21 points, 14 rebounds, eight assists, and four steals in the 95-90 OT win.

Now Jokic will have to try and get revenge against Team USA in the semifinals. It seems like an impossible task given the Americans depth, and Serbia's lack thereof.

Best odds: +2000 | Implied probability: 4.76%

My Olympics men's basketball team to watch

France (+2200)

After wins over Brazil and Japan, France saw its odds shrink to +1800, but an 11-point loss to Germany to close out Group B play had lengthened its odds by more than double.

However, even with that loss to the Germans, a team that has Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama is always tough to score against, especially with the benefit of international rules. Wemby's offense was on full display against Brazil and Japan and might be the key to unlocking France's upside.

This group has bested Team USA before in international play and proved to be too difficult Canada to stop in the quarterfinals. The "home-court advantage" as the Olympic hosts definitely helped, but nobody expected France to embarrass Canada the way they did. 

The French were up double-digit points almost immediately and never let the lead fall to less than five the rest of the way. While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander got his, France shutdown pretty much every other player.

It was clear the presents of Wemby opened things up for the players around him. Evan Fournier, Isaia Cordinier, and Guerschon Yabusele combined to go 9-for-15 from behind the arc in the win.

They'll need to keep it up to knock off Germany in the semifinals, and they'll need Gobert to have far more of an impact than he did against Canada - he's apparently dealing with a finger injury.

Odds: +2200 | Implied probability: 4.35%

2024 Team USA basketball roster

The Team USA roster is absolutely stacked. NBA Finals MVP Jaylen Brown is the most notable omission.

Team USA scoring leader odds

(Team USA scoring leader odds as of Aug. 7)

Kevin Durant was dealing around +800 before his Olympic debut, but he became the favorite after a spectacular showing through the first two games. Then in USA's final Group C game against Puerto Rico, he had just 11 points.

That helped LeBron James close the gap with the pair as co-favorites heading into the quarterfinals game against Brazil. However, everything changed in that win with James putting up just 12 and Duran 11.

That opened the door for Edwards to become the favorite with his 17-point performance on 60% shooting from the floor. He's the teams leading scorer heading into the semifinals - putting up 16.7 PPG to Durant's 14.7 and James' 13.7.

Booker is the only other player even sniffing them after he was Team USA's leading scorer against Brazil (18 points). He's now averaging 12.2 PPG.

Men's Olympic basketball MVP odds

(Tournament MVP odds as of Aug. 7)

James was the favorite entering this tournament, and he held onto the top spot after his first four Olympic contests since 2012. He's also the male flag bearer for the U.S., and he looks like a rejuvenated version of the perennial All-NBA and MVP contender that we've come to expect over the years.

Still, Durant has a slim shot if he has another performance like he did in the opening game, same goes for Edwards. If you like Germany's chances to win it all, it's hard not to be compelled by those odds on Wagner. The German star is averaging 20.7 PPG.

Men's Olympic basketball schedule

• July 27 - Aug. 3: Group stage
• Aug. 6: Quarterfinals
• Aug. 8: Semifinals
• Aug. 10: Bronze and gold medal games

Men's Olympic basketball odds over time

Aug. 7: The Americans continue to see their odds shorten as Olympic men's basketball tournament favorites after three blowout wins in the group stage. Germany is right behind them as the only other team with shorter than 20/1 odds.

France, on the other hand, has seen its odds jump all over the place after going from +1800 to +4000 back down to +2200.

Past Olympic basketball results, medal history

Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament FAQs

Who is the Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament favorite?

Team USA (-700) is the overwhelming betting favorite to win the Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament in Paris, France. Those odds represent an implied win probability of 87.50% that the Americans will take home their fifth straight gold medal.

Who won the men's Olympic basketball gold medal last time?

Team USA won the gold medal in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, marking their fourth straight gold medal and seventh in the last eight Olympic Games. The Americans have won a record 16 gold medals across 20 men's basketball tournaments.

When will the Men's Olympic Basketball Tournament be decided?

The 2024 Paris Olympics began on Friday, July 26 and will last through Sunday, Aug. 11. The men's basketball tournament will begin on Saturday, July 27, with the gold medal game set for Saturday, Aug. 10.

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