Skip to main content

Heat vs. Warriors Picks, Predictions: 2 Underwhelming Teams Look to Find Footing

James Tillman III

Last Updated: October 27, 2022 7:00 AM EDT • 2 min 25 sec read.

One of our marquee games for the NBA’s Thursday-night slate features the Miami Heat taking on the Golden State Warriors. Let’s dive right into the matchup with our Heat-Warriors picks.

Despite playing their first four games of the season at home, the Heat have gotten off to a slow start. They managed just one win in those four contests, with a minus-22 point differential.

However, Miami kicked off its three-game west coast trip with a much-needed 119-98 victory against the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday night. Bam Adebayo led the way, scoring 18 points to go along with eight rebounds and three assists.

Though Miami’s record is not anything to get excited about, the defending champions are also off to a somewhat slow start. In their most recent contest against the Phoenix Suns, the Warriors were within striking distance, as they trailed by just six points at the break.  However, the Suns outscored the Warriors by 13 in the third quarter and cruised to a 134-105 victory.

This will be the last home game for the Dubs until Nov. 7. Both of the Warriors’ victories have come at home, and they are hoping that trend will continue on Thursday.

Here are my NBA picks and predictions for Thursday's game between the Heat and Warriors (odds via, BetMGM, PointsBet, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Heat vs. Warriors Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, Oct. 27, 10 p.m. ET
TV: NBA TV
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Heat vs. Warriors Odds

Heat vs. Warriors Odds Analysis

The Warriors opened as consensus 7-point favorites. That line ranges from 6.5 to 7.5 depending on the sportsbook.

The Over/Under for this contest opened at 223.5. That total has moved up to 227.5, with the over attracting 91% of the cash and 75% of the tickets.  

Heat vs. Warriors Picks

  • Spread: Heat +7.5 (-107 via PointsBet)
  • Over/Under: 227.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Prop bet: Stephen Curry Over 25.5 points (-125 via DraftKings)

Heat vs. Warriors ATS Pick

Heat +7.5 (-107) ★★★

The Heat have a 4-1-1 mark against the spread in their last six Thursday games. Miami has posted an 8-2 record ATS in its last 10 road outings against teams with a winning percentage of 60 or better. Golden State is .500 to start the season.

Conversely, the Warriors are 19-40 ATS in their last 59 games.

Given those trends and the fact that Miami is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams, it is a safe bet to take Miami and the points on Thursday night.

Heat vs. Warriors O/U Pick

Over 226.5 (-110) ★★★

Although these teams are combining to average less than the projected Over/Under for this contest (223.7 points per game), there are a few reasons to go with the Over in this matchup.

The Over record for the Heat in their last 38 road games is 27-11 against teams with a winning home record. Additionally, the Over hit on 16 of Miami’s 23 road games when they played against teams with a .600 mark or better on their home floor.

Additionally, the Warriors have an Over record of 6-2 in their last eight home games. Golden State hit on the Over 11 times in their last 17 games against teams that are below .500.

It is also worth noting that the Over has hit in all four meetings between these two teams during the last two seasons.

Heat vs. Warriors Prop Pick

Curry Over 25.5 points (-120) ★★★

In 19 games against the Miami Heat, Stephen Curry has averaged 24.8 points per contest. However, that number is dragged down by his lone game against Miami last season (Jan. 3, 2022), when Curry finished with nine points on 3-for-10 shooting from the floor, including a 1-for-10 effort from 3-point range.

This season, the four-time champion has scored more than 30 points in three of the first four games. Curry is averaging 30.3 points per contest.

Curry shouldn’t have any trouble reaching the 25-point threshold against a Miami squad still trying to find its footing.

Where to Bet on Heat-Warriors Picks

Heat-Warriors picks made 10/27/2022 at 9:25 a.m. ET.

Written By:
James Tillman III
James is an accounting professional by day and a freelance writer at night. James has been publishing sports content for over 13 years for various outlets. The list includes FanSided, Latest Basketball News, Odds USA, Last Word on Sports, and Onlinebetting.com (OBCOM). James always researches team/player trends to ensure he’s offering his betting audience the best advice possible. Simply put, he takes his writing very seriously. He is an NBA handicapper who keeps a watchful eye on most of the sports leagues, his preferences, when it comes to betting content, pertain to the NBA and the NFL. Alongside his work for OnlineBetting.com, James has also published sports betting content with other betting sites such as ODDS USA and Eat Watch Bet. Although betting on sports is never an exact science, James always does his best to keep it simple when it comes to offering predictions on games, which in turn, inspires confidence for novice bettors.