Presidential Election Betting Odds 2028: Vance the Early Favorite
Last Updated: December 4, 2024 4:59 PM EST • 5 min 55 sec read.
Donald Trump made history in 2024 while becoming the first candidate to win non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland in 1892.
The Republicans skyrocketed back to power, and now our best political betting sites (outside the U.S.) are already looking toward the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
Trump will be gone at that point after reaching his maximum of two terms. But to what extent will Trumpism still be alive and well? And is Trump's vice president JD Vance the clear option to carry that message forward?
Two of our political betting sites in Canada are offering the early odds for 2028, with bet365 and DraftKings posting both the outright and winning party markets.
United States presidential election 2028 odds
(Presidential election odds from our best sportsbooks in Canada. U.S. residents interested in betting on the election can visit the social sportsbook , which is available in most U.S. states)
| Candidate | Odds (bet365) | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 28.57% | $25 | |
| Gavin Newsom | +750 | 11.76% | $75 |
| Josh Shapiro | +900 | 10.0% | $90 |
| Michelle Obama | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Ron DeSantis | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Tucker Carlson | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
- Vance has steadily maintained his position up top and a sizable advantage since U.S. presidential election odds for 2028 opened at Ontario sports betting sites shortly after Election Day in 2024
- There's been some movement behind him though, most notably Ron DeSantis falling from being third on the oddsboard at +800 when the market opened to +2000 now
- Michelle Obama has tumbled back a bit too while moving from +900 to around +1200
- Moving in the opposite direction is Pete Buttigieg, the former presidential candidate who's now among the top five on the oddsboard after sitting in seventh
United States presidential election 2028 odds analysis
There's a consensus at the top between two of our Ontario sports betting sites. Vance is the clear choice to take over for the Republicans, and right behind him California governor Gavin Newsom seems to have been eyeing 2028 for quite some time on the Democratic side.
However, putting Michelle Obama anywhere near them and among the few getting +1500 odds or shorter is an odd choice, as she carries name value only.
She remains widly popular among Democrats and continually speaks on behalf of candidates, as Obama did for Harris during her campaign.
However, the former First Lady has said repeatedly that she holds no ambition toward higher office. Yet her shortest odds from DraftKings of +1200 imply a 7.69% win probability, notably higher than seasoned politicians within her party like Pete Buttigieg and Gretchen Whitmer.
Elsewhere, Josh Shapiro isn't far behind Newsom after nearly becoming Harris' running mate. Democrats could view him favorably while thinking the Pennsylvania governor can help to rebuild the Blue Wall that crumbled in 2024 and is often the key to any Democratic presidential victory.
U.S. presidential election 2028 odds favorites
JD Vance (+250)
Vance is the no-brainer favorite due to his position as second in command, which is why any Vice President would likely receive similar odds at this point.
But it runs deeper than that with Vance.
Trump has taken over the Republican party, a process that began when he descended the golden escalator in 2015, and it never really stopped even when he took political defeats. His approach is now firmly entrenched, with many moderates in the party like Mitt Romney long gone.
Therefore, heading into the 2028 campaign there will surely be a desire among many to fortify Trumpism as the leader departs politics. Vance was chosen to be Trump's running mate partly because of his ability to be that torchbearer, albeit with often a softer tone and messaging.
The other major element working in Vance's favor is his age. America is fresh off an election in which the original two candidates—Trump and Biden—were both aging greatly. Biden is the oldest-ever sitting president, and Trump is now the oldest to ever be elected.
Vance is just 40 years old, meaning he'll still be well shy of even Harris' age (60) come Election Day in 2028.
Best odds: | Implied probability: 28.57%
Terms and conditions apply.
United States presidential election 2028 candidate to watch
Pete Buttigieg (+1400)
Buttigieg already ran for the presidency ahead of the 2020 election, when he was just 38 years old and the mayor of South Bend, Ind.
A combination of his age and lack of high-level political experience meant his candidacy wasn't taken seriously at first during the Democratic primaries. But he soon did surprisingly well considering those factors, earning 26 delegates and 17% of the vote before dropping out on March 2 and endorsing Biden.
He's still young for a politician while now 42. And now Buttigieg has spent the past four years gaining significant experience working in the Biden administration as the secretary of transportation.
Perhaps even more critically as we enter a second Trump term with Democrats starting to jostle for position, Buttigieg has already been maneuvering to make himself one of the next president's leading critics. He's often appearing on Fox News to present rebuttals to Conservative talking points.
If he can keep it going, the momentum from that could serve him well when the next election cycle truly ramps up.
Best odds: | Implied probability: 6.67%
United States presidential election 2028 winning party odds
| Party | bet365 | DraftKings |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -150 | -150 |
| Democrats | +120 | +120 |
| Independent | +10000 | +10000 |
Much like the outright winner market, plenty can happen to sway the odds in the winning party market too.
The most significant such event over the next four years could be the results of the midterm elections, in which the party that holds the White House often faces at least some degree of pushback from voters.
United States presidential election previous winners
| Year (Election #) | Winner (Party) | Winner Odds | Runner-up (Party) | Runner-up Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 (60) | Donald Trump (R) | -188 | Kamala Harris (D) | +162 |
| 2020 (59) | Joe Biden (D) | -175 | Donald Trump (R) | +150 |
| 2016 (58) | Donald Trump (R) | +375 | Hillary Clinton (D) | -550 |
| 2012 (57) | Barack Obama (D) | -450 | Mitt Romney (R) | +360 |
| 2008 (56) | Barack Obama (D) | -900 | John McCain (R) | +800 |
| 2004 (55) | George W. Bush (R) | -188 | John Kerry (D) | +138 |
| 2000 (54) | George W. Bush (R) | -175 | Al Gore (D) | +125 |
| 1996 (53) | Bill Clinton (D) | -1000 | Bob Dole (R) | +600 |
| 1992 (52) ++ | Bill Clinton (D) | -800 | George H. W. Bush (R) | +500 |
| 1988 (51) | George H. W. Bush (R) | -700 | Michael Dukakis (D) | +400 |
| 1984 (50) | Ronald Reagan (R) | -700 | Walter Mondale (D) | +450 |
| 1980 (49) | Ronald Reagan (R) | -110 | Jimmy Carter (D) | -110 |
| 1976 (48) | Jimmy Carter (D) | +100 | Gerald Ford (R) | -120 |
Odds among the top candidates move frequently right up until voting day in November of an election year.
But bettors should remember that the favorite has won in 26 of the last 31 presidential elections. That includes Trump in 2024, though in 2016 he was a significant underdog to Hillary Clinton, and that night went sideways quickly for the Democrats.
Where can I bet on the U.S. presidential election?
Legal and regulated sports betting sites in the U.S. don't offer odds on the election, but our best Ontario sports betting apps do. All major Ontario sportsbooks offer this market under "politics" and/or "novelty".
Odds often surface far in advance, with only the outright winner market available at first. Later on during the election year other prop markets will emerge, such as which party will win, who will win the most electoral college votes, and who will take the popular vote.
U.S. presidential election FAQs
Who is the favorite for the 2028 U.S. election?
Vice president-elect JD Vance is the early favorite for the 2028 election while getting +250 odds. That leads to an implied win probability of 28.57%.
Does DraftKings feature election odds?
Ontario re-added election odds late during the 2024 campaign, and it's now one of just two sportsbooks in the province featuring early 2028 odds.
Who won the previous U.S. presidential election?
Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States after defeating Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Harris became his opponent after Joe Biden dropped out on June 21, 2024.
When is the 2028 U.S. presidential election?
The next day Americans will go to the polls to vote for a president is Nov. 7, 2028.
When will the candidates for the 2028 U.S. presidential election be decided?
Trump will not be permitted to run again after reaching the end of his second and final term. Both parties will hold primaries, which will begin early in 2028. How long that process will take to decide the likely nominees is difficult to project. But favorites often begin to emerge early in the spring, and especially after Super Tuesday in March.
Where will the U.S. presidential election decided?
Candidates will campaign for office in several cities and states until November 2028. Ultimately, voters decided who will be the President of the United States at polling booths across the country.
How to watch the U.S. presidential election
Every major news outlet covers the results of the 2028 United States presidential election.
Presidential election betting odds pages
Here are our best political betting sites:
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- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS
- FanDuel Promo Code
- DraftKings Promo Code
- Hard Rock Bet Promo Code
- Fanatics Sportsbook Promo Code
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
Sean Tomlinson
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