2025 Shriners Children’s 500 Predictions at Phoenix: Best NASCAR Prop Bets, Expert Picks to Win & Odds Today

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Phoenix Raceway this weekend as we examine the best 2025 Shriners Children's 500 odds and predictions for Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1).

We missed out on our outright bet on Chris Buescher last week at COTA, but we avoided the overpriced favorites and cashed Buescher's top-10 odds at +130 (or +250 if you waited until after qualifying). This week, we love the value on a former four-time winner at Phoenix as we offer our expert picks for the first short-track race of the season.

📊 2025 Shriners Children’s 500 odds & NASCAR favorites at Phoenix

Here are the latest Shriners Children’s 500 odds and favorites at FanDuel as of Sunday morning.

🥇 Shriners Children’s 500 betting favorites 🥇

• Ryan Blaney, +700 ($10 to win $70)
• Kyle Larson, +700 ($10 to win $70)
• Joey Logano, +750 ($10 to win $75)
• Christopher Bell, +750 ($10 to win $75)
• Kyle Busch, +850 ($10 to win $85)
• Tyler Reddick, +850 ($10 to win $85)
• William Byron, +850 ($10 to win $85)
• Chase Elliott, +1300 ($10 to win $130)
• Denny Hamlin, +1700 ($10 to win $170)
• Chase Briscoe, +2100 ($10 to win $210)

Claim our BetMGM bonus code, SBRBONUS, to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets by placing a wager of any amount on the Shriners Children’s 500 or any other market!

🏁 Shriners Children’s 500 predictions, NASCAR expert picks & best bets at Phoenix

We’re in the desert for the next two weeks in the NASCAR Cup Series. First up is the Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix, which brings with it the same two-tire “Prime” and “Option” set-up that we saw at North Wilkesboro and the second Richmond race last year.

Bettors should note that flat short tracks also bring the wet-weather tire into play, but I wouldn’t expect that to be a factor on Sunday since we’re in the desert (and because the forecast says so).

When we come to a flat short track, it’s impossible not to talk about Team Penske, which has won the last three championships because of its dominance at Phoenix in the fall. As a result, I predict Joey Logano will win the Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway.

🏆 Pick to win Shriners Children’s 500: Joey Logano (+1200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Any good should hinge upon value. That usually means the exclusion of guys whom the books are charging 10% or more for on the outright market, which means no Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, or William Byron.

All of those drivers are talented - and both Bell and Blaney have won at tracks like this one recently - but Logano should be in that tier, too. Yet his odds vary from +900 (10%) to +1200 (7.7%) depending on where you look. Locking him in before qualifying at the lower end of that range is a prudent choice.

Logano has won twice here since 2022, and before both wins, he scored a front-row starting position in qualifying. Although no active driver comes close to Kevin Harvick’s record nine wins here, Logano’s four - three of which came after the 2018 reconfiguration - are tied with Jimmie Johnson for the next most at this track.

Add in the fact that Logano won in the option tire’s debut at North Wilkesboro and nearly won in its points-paying debut at Richmond (thanks, Austin Dillon), and these +1200 odds via FanDuel are too good to pass up with a winning $10 bet returning $120 in profit.

💎 Best value bet to win Shriners Children’s 500: Josh Berry (+3500 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Team Penske just knows how to get it done in the desert. The Captain’s philosophy of prioritizing the tracks that matter most - which, with the current Cup Series championship race hosted at Phoenix, are flat short ovals - means his cars are often a safe bet to win. Last year, Penske finished 1-2 at Phoenix in the fall (Logano and Blaney) and won at Martinsville (Blaney), Iowa (Blaney), and Gateway (Cindric) in the regular season.

Although Berry’s No. 21 Ford is owned and operated by Wood Brothers Racing, it’s essentially a fourth Penske car. Harrison Burton’s underperformance obfuscated this reality for three seasons, but Berry reminded us by leading the second-most laps at Atlanta. Penske struggled as a whole at COTA, but Berry finished right behind Logano and Cindric.

Berry's strong equipment and experience as a short-track racer make him a great value bet this weekend. He was never great on flat short tracks at JRM in the Xfinity Series, but their program on such tracks lagged far behind JGR, and he did manage to win at Martinsville in 2021.

Look for him to be near the front on Sunday’s race, even with BetMGM offering $350 in profit for a $10 bet on Berry to win the race.

🎯 Best long shot to win Shriners Children’s 500: Austin Cindric (+6500 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Another driver in the Penske stable, Cindric jumps out as a great long shot for this weekend’s action. Sure, the driver of the No. 2 Ford has never been as good as his teammates here - his best finish at Phoenix is P11 three years ago - but he put enough together to win at Gateway last year with a P4 at Martinsville, too.

Although Cindric’s lack of success relative to his teammates may have some doubting his talent, let’s not forget that he won at Phoenix twice in the Xfinity Series. In fact, through seven Xfinity Series starts here with Penske, Cindric never finished worse than eighth while posting an average finish of 3.9. He also posted the best driver rating in his last three starts in the series at this track.

The current Cup car doesn’t suit Cindric’s talents quite as well as the Xfinity car did, but there are signs that he is figuring it out on this style of track. The raw speed that Team Penske brings to these venues every year makes getting one of its drivers at +6500 - a mere 1.5% implied probability - an absolute steal.

Let’s be thankful that the books have seemingly forgotten all about Cindric's win at Gateway. If he does it again on Sunday, a $10 bet would return a $650 profit.

💰 Best Shriners Children’s 500 prop bets & NASCAR picks at Phoenix

You can accuse me of Penske and Ford bias all you want - we’re locking in another wager for a driver in this stable as our top NASCAR Cup Series prop of the week for Phoenix because the value is just too good.

🔥 Best prop bet for Shriners Children’s 500: Austin Cindric top-10 finish (+270 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I’m not quite as confident in Cindric’s ability to score a top-10 finish this weekend as I was in Buescher’s ability to do so last week. Fortunately for us, neither are our best sportsbooks, as Cindric is dealing as high as +270 for that result - which is still much better than the +150 odds via BetMGM for the same outcome.

I’ve already run through Cindric’s Xfinity Series resume and recent Cup Series production at flat short tracks. He posted two top-fives in nine starts at these venues last year, so the 22.2% hit rate is slightly worse than the implied odds (27%) at FanDuel. However, this marked a meaningful year-over-year improvement, as Cindric had one such top-10 result the year before and none before that.

If Cindric can keep improving at that rate, he should score between three and four top-10s at these tracks this season. That may be a big if, but we know the equipment is there, and he showed enough talent in Xfinity to warrant some faith. Let’s not forget that Cindric is still only 26 with 115 Cup Series starts under his belt. If he is going to take the next step, it will likely come in the next two seasons - and potentially the next few races.

🚀 Best long-shot prop bet for Shriners Children’s 500: Cole Custer top-10 finish (+600 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Custer will drive the Andy’s Frozen Custard No. 41 Ford this weekend (the jokes just write themselves, don’t they?), and while the books are mostly writing him off, I can’t. Although Stewart-Haas Racing - now Haas Factory Team - hasn’t been very good lately, the team has shown life on flat short tracks.

Last spring, Chase Briscoe piloted the No. 14 Ford to a top-10 result here for SHR. Briscoe also finished second at New Hampshire and checked into the top 10 at Martinsville. Ryan Preece and Berry added on another three such results, including a P3 at New Hampshire for Berry. The hit rate wasn’t massive for a four-car team, but it was a bright spot.

Custer, like Cindric, ran very well here in the Xfinity Series, notching a win and eight top-10 results in 10 starts. He also scored a P9 in his Cup Series debut here in 2020. With the team now concentrating all of its resources into one car, Custer has a better shot of finishing in the first 10 cars than his 14.3% implied probability suggests.

🤖 NASCAR Shriners Children’s 500 AI picks & predictions at Phoenix

We asked the most advanced model of ChatGPT for its Shriners Children's 500 AI predictions - including its pick to win, best prop bet, favorite long shot, and projection for all 37 drivers.

🖥️ ChatGPT's pick to win the Shriners Children’s 500

Here's a sneak peek at why the AI model is predicting William Byron will win the Shriners Children's 500:

"Byron has been in great form recently, winning races in previous seasons and showing solid performance on shorter, flat tracks like Phoenix."

For more analysis, check out our full NASCAR Shriners Children's 500 AI predictions, which include the AI model's best bets and projected finishing order for Sunday's race.

📈 Shriners Children’s 500 NASCAR trends & Phoenix Raceway history

Here are a few Shriners Children’s 500 trends to consider before betting on Sunday's NASCAR race at Phoenix Raceway.

🏎️ Start up front, stay up front. Since the debut of the Next Gen car in 2022, all but one winner started inside the top 10, and four of those drivers started in the first three rows. The only driver to win from outside the top 10, Christopher Bell, did so from 13th.

🏎️ This isn’t a great race for first-timers. Since the track’s reconfiguration in 2018, only one driver has picked up his first Cup Series win here: Chase Briscoe in 2022. Briscoe also benefited from that event being the first on a flat short track in the NextGen car.

🏎️ Don’t get your hopes up for overtime. Only two races since the track’s 2018 reconfiguration have featured an overtime finish. The rest all ran the scheduled distance - 312 laps, or 500 kilometers. If your driver isn’t running well late, they probably won’t get bailed out by a yellow flag.

💡 How to bet on NASCAR at Phoenix: Tips & betting strategy for Sunday

With this being the first non-superspeedway oval race of the year - as well as the first race on a flat short track - it’s worth running through some strategy tips:

• The books love to overcharge for top-tier drivers. They’ll win sometimes, but guys with odds in the +450 (18.2%) to +550 (15.4%) range like Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney just don’t have that much value. It’s a 37-car field this weekend - the raw odds of any driver finish in first in such a field are only 2.7%.
• You probably won’t see a long-shot winner. Races on non-superspeedway ovals are generally won by drivers in top-tier equipment since there are fewer equalizers like road course experience or capped top speeds. Feel free to bet on a few value guys, but make sure they’re driving cars that are capable of winning.
• Get some action down before qualifying. The drivers who wind up on the first few rows will generally see their odds shorten sharply, which means your window of opportunity to buy a guy (or gal!) at a great price can shut before Sunday even rolls around.

🏆 Past Shriners Children's 500 winners at Phoenix Raceway

Here is a look at the last 10 Shriners Children's 500 winners entering Sunday's race at Phoenix Raceway.

📺 How to watch the 2025 Shriners Children’s 500: NASCAR at Phoenix

📅 Race date: Sunday, March 9, 2025
🕒 Start time: 3:30 p.m. ET
📍 Track: Phoenix Raceway (Phoenix)
📺 TV: FS1 | Streaming: FOX Sports App

❓ Shriners Children’s 500 FAQs

Who is favored to win the 2025 NASCAR race at Phoenix?

Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson are co-favorites to win this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Phoenix. Their odds of +700 represent an implied probability of 12.50%.

What are the odds for the Shriners Children’s 500?

Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson are co-favorites (+700), but they're followed closely by Joey Logano and Christopher Bell (+750) at FanDuel. Behind them are Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick and William Byron (+850).

What time is the 2025 Shriners Children’s 500?

The 2025 Shriners Children’s 500 starts at 3:30 p.m. ET (FS1) on Sunday from Phoenix Raceway.

How to watch the 2025 NASCAR race at Phoenix?

You can watch the Shriners Children’s 500 on FS1 or stream it via the FOX Sports App.

Who won the Shriners Children’s 500 last year?

Christopher Bell won the 2024 Shriners Children’s 500 in the company’s first year sponsoring the NASCAR Cup Series race at Phoenix.

🏁 Best NASCAR betting sites for Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway

Looking to bet on the Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway? Here are our top-rated NASCAR best sports betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos ahead of Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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