Lynx vs. Liberty Prediction: Game 5 Expert Picks & WNBA Finals Odds

For the first time since 2019, there will be a Game 5 in the WNBA Finals as the New York Liberty host the Minnesota Lynx on Sunday for a winner-take-all clash at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.

• The Liberty are favored by 5.5 points across our best sportsbooks
• Minnesota won Game 4 on Friday to force this decisive Game 5
• These teams split the first two games at Barclays Center

Here is a look at our Lynx vs. Liberty prediction, expert picks, and WNBA odds for Game 5 of the WNBA Finals:  

Lynx vs. Liberty expert picks: Game 5

WNBA picks made Saturday; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.  

• Liberty -5.5 () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Breanna Stewart Over 33.5 pts + reb + ast () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Lynx vs. Liberty prediction: Game 5

Liberty -5.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This has been a tough series to predict, as every time it looks like the Liberty will pull away, the Lynx claw their way back into the mix.

That's what we saw in both games in Minnesota, which were each decided in the final few seconds. It's also what we saw Game 1 when the Lynx rallied to force overtime and steal the series opener.

Here's what I do know: New York led both home games in this series by at least 17 points, and it probably should have closed this series on Friday if not for some questionable officiating at the end of the game.

No place like home

If the controversial end to Game 4 doesn't fire up the Liberty heading into a decisive Game 5, a return to the raucous environment at Barclays Center - where they won 16 of 20 games in the regular season - should do the trick.

New York outscored visiting teams by seven points on average in the regular season, and it beat Minnesota by 14 points in these teams' last trip to Brooklyn in Game 2.

In that game, the Liberty held the Lynx to just six 3-point shots while winning the rebounding battle by seven. That's been the recipe for success for this team all year and in this series: force the game to be played in the paint, and dominate that matchup behind two former MVP winners.

New York has won the battle on the boards in all four games, but a dramatic free-throw disparity in Game 4 - Minnesota attempted more than twice as many shots from the charity stripe - proved fatal for the Liberty in a two-point loss.

I'd be surprised if we see such a skew toward the road team on Sunday, especially after coach Sandy Brondello's comments after Friday's loss.

Bet on the better team

Look, there's no way around it: the Liberty are the better team on paper and have played like it in this series. And I'm not backing the other side in a critical Game 5.

New York has never won the WNBA Finals in five tries, including last year, and many of the team's top stars - including Jonquel Jones and Sabrina Ionescu - are still seeking the first ring of their pro careers.

Breanna Stewart has twice led her previous team to the promised land, and she's been the catalyst for the Liberty's success in this series. This feels like the quintessential spot for her to assert her place in New York lore.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

Best Lynx vs. Liberty player prop for Game 5

Our NEW player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any WNBA prop market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Breanna Stewart Over 33.5 pts + reb + ast (-118) ⭐⭐⭐

As I alluded above, this feels like a clear spot for Stewart to take over in perhaps the biggest game in franchise history.

Stewie finished with just 11 points in Game 4 - she was awarded just one free-throw attempt, her lowest in the postseason - but she still grabbed double-digit rebounds for the second straight game and added four assists for good measure.

That came after she dropped 30 points and 11 rebounds in Game 3 to will her team to victory:

Stewart is averaging 20 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists in this series, and I'd be shocked if she isn't the focal point for the Liberty in their final game of the season.

I'm compelled by Stewart's odds to lead this game in scoring (+220 via FanDuel) and in rebounds (+155), but the safer bet is for her to clear this total for the third time in four games. If she does, a $10 bet at FanDuel would return an $8.47 profit.

Best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%

Lynx vs. Liberty Game 5 odds

Lynx vs. Liberty Game 5 info

• When: Sunday, Oct. 20
• Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Barclays Center (Brooklyn, N.Y.)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Favorite: Liberty -5.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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