Las Vegas Grand Prix Picks & Predictions 2024: Leclerc to Win in Sin City
Last Updated: November 23, 2024 5:47 PM EST • 3 min 58 sec read.
Max Verstappen can become the fifth driver to win four consecutive F1 championships when he steps onto the Las Vegas Strip Circuit Sunday morning for the third-last race of the season.
And wouldn't it be fitting for the Dutch legend to accomplish the venerable feat under Sin City's bright lights?
After arguably the best performance of his career in Sao Paulo, where he won despite starting 17th on the grid, I wouldn't be surprised to see him win in Las Vegas for the second straight year, slapping an exclamation mark on his fourth straight F1 championship.
However, our Las Vegas Grand Prix picks and predictions don't buy into that fairytale script, which was reinforced after Saturday morning's qualifying, in which Verstappen finished in fifth place.
George Russell won qualifying and will start in pole position, while our pick to win, Charles Leclerc, finished fourth, two spots behind Ferrari teammate Carlos Sainz Jr.
Sainz and Russell are Las Vegas Grand Prix odds co-favorites at FanDuel entering Sunday's race (1 a.m. ET, ESPN).
Las Vegas Grand Prix updated betting info
As is the case with most races, qualifying had a significant impact on the Las Vegas Grand Prix odds. Here are some of the key takeaways:
- Russell became the first non-Ferrari/McLaren driver to win qualifying in 10 races. His odds shortened from +900 to +240
- Ferrari drivers Sainz and Leclerc finished second and fourth in qualifying. Sainz's odds moved from +650 to +220
- Verstappen's fifth-place qualifying finish saw his odds lengthen from +420 to +600
- Lando Norris' odds lengthen from +270 to +950 after finishing sixth in qualifying
- Lewis Hamilton's odds lengthened from +750 to +2700 after finishing 10th in qualifying. Hours before the race, they improved to +1700 at FanDuel. DraftKings offer the best price at +3000
- Pierre Gasly's odds shortened from +42000 to +9500 after finishing third in qualifying
Las Vegas Grand Prix picks
F1 picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best F1 betting sites.
- Favorite: Charles Leclerc () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Long shot: Lewis Hamilton () ⭐⭐
- Prop: Charles Leclerc fastest lap (+370 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Las Vegas Grand Prix odds 2024
Odds via FanDuel as of Saturday at 6 p.m. ET and subject to change.
| Driver | Odds (FanDuel) | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +220 | 31.25% | $22 |
| George Russell | +240 | 29.41% | $24 |
| Charles Leclerc | +260 | 27.78% | $26 |
| Max Verstappen | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Lando Norris | +950 | 9.52% | $95 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1700 | 5.56% | $170 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Pierre Gasly | +9500 | 1.04% | $950 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +20000 | 0.50% | $2,000 |
| Sergio Perez | +32000 | 0.31% | $3,200 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +42000 | 0.24% | $4,200 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Guanyu Zhou | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Liam Lawson | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Alex Albon | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
Las Vegas Grand Prix predictions
Favorite: Charles Leclerc ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The good news is that Leclerc's odds didn't move at FanDuel after his fourth-place finish in qualifying. He's still well-positioned for the race.
Leclerc finished on the podium in six of the last eight races, winning in Italy and Austin, Texas. Only two races removed from winning the United States Grand Prix, Leclerc is well-positioned to win his fourth race of the season.
He finished fourth in the first practice session and fifth in the follow-up session.
While he didn't win either practice session, Leclerc finished second at last year's Las Vegas Grand Prix. And Ferrari, at least on paper, suits the long straights and abundance of traction zones on the pass-heavy Las Vegas circuit.
A winning $10 bet would profit $26.
Best odds: +260 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 27.78%
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Long shot: Lewis Hamilton ⭐⭐
With Verstappen winning in Brazil, my last long-shot pick paid off. Let's hope Lewis Hamilton makes it two in a row.
I've reduced Hamilton winning from a three-star play to two stars after he finished 10th in qualifying. His odds moved from +750 to +2700 at FanDuel, while DraftKings is offering a +3000 outlier price. Just hours before the race, his odds shortened from +2700 to +1700 at FanDuel, thanks to heaps of public backing.
Hamilton swept the practice session with successive victories. And while it's best not to read too much into practice session results, Hamilton looked confident and smooth in the preamble. Hamilton has struggled recently and hasn't had a podium finish in seven races. Before his current slide, he had three straight podium finishes.
Las Vegas also feels like the perfect place for the seven-time championship winner to break out of his current slump and return to that elite form. A winning $10 bet will profit $300.
Best odds: +3000 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 3.23%
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Prop: Charles Leclerc fastest lap ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Leclerc had the third-fastest lap in Las Vegas last year, and he has won the fastest lap three times already this season, the last of which coming at the Mexico Grand Prix on Oct. 27.
I feel the course suits Ferrari, and Leclerc has the confidence and skill set to execute. After qualifying, Leclerc's fastest-lap odds lengthened from +370 to +420, providing even more value.
A winning $10 bet will profit $42.
Best odds: +420 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 19.61%
Past Las Vegas Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull Racing-Honda RBPT |
Las Vegas Grand Prix info
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 24, 2024
- Time: 1 a.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas Strip Circuit (Las Vegas)
- How to watch: ESPN
- Defending winner: Max Verstappen
- Favorite: Charles Leclerc (+250 via FanDuel)
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Gary Pearson
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