Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk Prediction: Expert Picks & Odds for Saturday’s Heavyweight Rematch

A mere seven months after their first dance, Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury are running it back.

The pair of heavyweight pugilists will square off in an immediate rematch on Saturday in the same venue that hosted their May clash: Kingdom Arena in Riyadh. Usyk, the reigning heavyweight champion, is the favorite by the Usyk vs. Fury odds.

Usyk rallied late to claim their riveting 12-round bout by split decision and become boxing’s undisputed heavyweight king, but the IBF strap won’t be on the line this time around. Usyk vacated it not long after handing Fury his first pro loss.

Usyk, 37, returns to Riyadh with a perfect 22-0 record and 14 career stoppages, while Fury boasts a slate of 34-1-1, with two dozen wins coming inside the distance.

Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk prediction & best pick

(Odds via our best boxing betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

• Fight prediction: Tyson Fury to win () ⭐⭐⭐
• My best pick: Tyson Fury to win in rounds 7-12 () ⭐⭐⭐

Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk fight analysis

Prediction: Tyson Fury to win

Prior to Fury’s first date with Usyk, I banked on him exploiting his edge in measurables and sheer bulk to outmuscle Usyk against the ropes, make the fight ugly, and keep the judges out of it. While Fury made the fatal mistake of boxing with an Olympic gold medalist, I’m hoping he’ll right that wrong and fight Usyk the way he should have.

In his trilogy with Deontay Wilder, Fury learned from the mistakes he made the first time around and spent the next two matchups leaning on Wilder, bullying, and clobbering him in close to win their second and third bouts by stoppage. With advantages of several dozen pounds, six inches in height, and seven in reach, Fury would be a fool to let his physical edge go to waste in his second shot at Usyk.

Granted, cutting the cage and trapping a technician of Usyk’s caliber against the ropes is no easy ask, but Fury’s treated smaller, quicker fighters to a similar fate before, and until he fights a man his size, my bet will reside with “The Gypsy King.”

Given the pair’s combined resume and their razor-close May clash, the lines on Saturday’s rematch are understandably close, with Usyk heading to Riyadh a slight favorite across our best boxing betting sites. While DraftKings and bet365 each offer decent value on a Fury upset at +120 and +110, respectively, FanDuel leads the way on this week’s action at +126 on a straight-up win for the challenger.

Best odds: +126 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 44.2%

Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk best pick

Prediction: Tyson Fury to win in rounds 7-12

While Fury earns his wins before the final bell more often than not, he isn’t the swiftest of starters, having finished Steve Cunningham, Deontay Wilder (twice), Derek Chisora (twice), and Christian Hammer past the halfway mark over the past decade. Tasked with a methodical, cerebral foe in Usyk, Fury will likely earn the W in the later rounds yet again.

Usyk tends to spend the first few frames making his reads while working behind the jab, and that should remain the case come fight night, with Fury showing him ample respect.

Once Usyk opens up with his combinations in the middle rounds, Fury should switch gears and make the action ugly as only he can. Should he manage to back Usyk to the ropes, Fury will give him a lesson in dirty boxing and reclaim heavyweight gold in brutal fashion.

Luckily, the lines on a late Fury win boast plenty of value, with bet365 offering +550 odds for a profit of $55 on a winning $10 bet.

Best odds: +550 via bet365 | Implied probability: 15.4%

Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk odds

Odds via FanDuel

While Usyk had his hand raised at Fury’s expense back in May, our best sports betting sites have shown the latter plenty of respect ahead of the rematch, with Usyk sitting as only a slight favorite.

The action on a straight-up Fury victory is still worth your attention, but if you prefer a prop bet on “The Gypsy King,” you’ll find compelling value on the method of victory lines. Fury has finished 24 of his 34 career conquests, and those banking on a 25th stoppage will find a KO/TKO at a solid +310 at FanDuel.

If you believe the pair will need the full 12 rounds as they did in May, a decision win for Fury offers an even greater payout at +370.

Oleksandr Usyk vs. Tyson Fury tale of the tape

Oleksandr Usyk vs. Tyson Fury fight info

• Weight class: Heavyweight
• When: Saturday, Dec. 21 (walkouts approx. 6 pm ET)
• Where: Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
• How to watch: DAZN, PPV
• Favorite: Oleksandr Usyk (-139 via bet365)

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• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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