Free Breeders' Cup Picks & Predictions 2023: Favorite, Long Shot & Fade for Big 3 Races at Santa Anita Park

With the 11th running of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Santa Anita Park underway, bettors will have 14 races worth $31 million on which to wager, and our free Breeders' Cup picks and predictions are here to help as we break down the odds from our best horse racing betting sites.

To grasp the two-day wagering extravaganza that is the Breeders' Cup World Championships, envision it as 14 All-Star races, each varying in length, gender, and surface. Every race, ranging from the five-furlong Sprint to the 1 1/4-mile flagship Classic, showcases some of the world's finest horses. It's a unique opportunity, unlike any other, with an abundance of wagering possibilities across high-quality races.

The event unfolds over two days, hosted at Santa Anita Park just outside Los Angeles for the 11th time overall and the sixth time since 2012. The action kicked off with five Friday afternoon races, all featuring 2-year-olds. A highlight among them is the 1 1/16-mile Juvenile, offering a glimpse of potential Kentucky Derby prospects for 2024.

Saturday brings nine races, with the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic taking the spotlight. This race challenges the best 3-year-olds and elite older horses over a demanding 1 1/4-mile distance. Winning the Classic bestows immortality and a likely Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year. The last three Classic winners, Flightline (2022), Knicks Go (2021), and Authentic (2020), all earned the prestigious title of Horse of the Year.

Here are our top free Breeders' Cup picks and predictions for 2023 at Santa Anita Park (odds via our best sports betting apps).

Breeders' Cup Classic odds 2023

Breeders Cup odds via as of Nov. 2 at 8:12 a.m. ET.

Breeders' Cup Classic picks and predictions

Breeders' Cup fade: White Abarrio, Post 3 ()

Simply put, if White Abarrio duplicates his stellar outing in the Grade 1 Whitney at Saratoga when he dismantled his competitors by 6 1/4 lengths in what is one of the top races for older horses in the country, it’s game over.

But he won’t. 

The co-second choice with Japanese contender Ushba Tesoro, White Abarrio owns the top Beyer Speed Figure in the field, the 110 he put up in the Whitney. He is 2-for-4 this year and will inevitably take more money based on the recency bias of that Whitney score.

But White Abarrio hasn’t gone 10 furlongs since the 2022 Kentucky Derby, where he endured a terrible trip and finished a woeful 16th. His training at Santa Anita, where he’s never run, hasn’t been stellar. And while White Abarrio seems to have thrived since moving to Rick Dutrow’s barn, we’re not convinced that he has enough in the tank for 1 1/4 miles running against this field.

Breeders' Cup long shot: Zandon, Post 2 ()

We don’t expect Zandon to win this race. Not when he has a chronic case of seconditis. He’s 1-for-his-last-9, with that “1” being the Grade 2 Woodward at Aqueduct a month ago.

His three races before that? All runner-up finishes, including a second to White Abarrio in the Whitney. And the son of Upstart is used to finishing second. He’s done it six times in 13 races—all in graded stakes events. He’s missed the board exactly once: in last December’s Grade 1 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct, where he finished fourth.

So again, we’re not expecting the consistently frustrating Zandon to somehow win his fourth race in what will be his 14th start. But we are expecting his gritty, always-in-the-mix, late running style to find a piece of this board at a good price.

Our Breeders' Classic favorite: Ushba Tesoro, Post 8 ()

This is a dangerous bandwagon to jump on. While Japanese horses stood out at the last California Breeders’ Cup—two years ago at Del Mar—none have prevailed in the event’s flagship race. And every year at every marquee race of note, a Japanese horse seems to be one of the trendy picks that backs up the bandwagon for everyone to climb aboard—only to get rudely tossed when prevailing pre-race wisdom doesn’t jibe with conventional post-race wisdom and results. 

Until a Japanese horse does prevail in a marquee race. This is what Ushba Tesoro did at last March’s $12 million Dubai World Cup. The 6-year-old Japanese invader comes into Santa Anita riding a 7-for-his-last-8 winning streak that includes five wins in Japan and that $7.2 million score in Dubai.

Ushba Tesoro has raced only three times in 2023 and only once since his Dubai World Cup score. He’s never raced in the US and never gone 1 1/4 miles. With favorite Arabian Knight, the underrated Saudi Crown, and fellow Japanese invader Derma Sotogake all wanting and needing the lead, Ushba Tesoro can pick up the pieces if he can stay close enough without getting sucked into a speed duel. And pick up Japan’s biggest victory in history.

Breeders' Cup Distaff pick

Our Breeders' Cup Distaff favorite: Clairiere, Post 9 ()

Rarely does it get this easy. And here’s why. This is what you’re likely going to see in the $2 million Distaff. The gate will open and Idiomatic, Adare Manor, Randomized, and Search Results will sprint out and seek the lead—which they all like to do, and need to do. Adare Manor brings in a five-race winning streak that includes a Grade 1 at Del Mar and three Grade 2s at Santa Anita. 

But this race doesn’t set up well for Adare Manor’s front-running style. You know who it does set up well for? The best horse in the field: Clairiere. While the aforementioned quartet—and anyone else who wants to front-run with them—will fry each other to a speedy crisp, Clariere and jockey Joel Rosario will sit back, wait for the speed duel to bring the field back to them, and then pounce.

This is Clairiere’s third Distaff and her clutch closing style brought her a third by a head last year and a fourth by 3/4 of a length in 2021. There are other closers in the field: Kentucky Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous and Wet Paint, and Idiomatic (8-for-11, including two recent Grade 1 wins) belong on your tickets somewhere, especially if the pace meltdown doesn’t happen for some reason. But getting the best horse with the best pace scenario at a price? 

Shut up and take our money.

Breeders' Cup Turf pick

Our Breeders' Cup Turf favorite: Auguste Rodin, Post 5 ()

How inhospitable is this race to American runners? European horses have won seven of the last eight editions and 19 of the last 24 in what is considered the No. 2 Breeders’ Cup race behind the Classic. How deep is this race? The best American runner in the 13-horse field: Up to the Mark, comes in with three consecutive Grade 1 scores and five victories in his last six starts—and is fourth on the toteboard at 5-1. That’s largely a byproduct of the deep European contingent and his lack of experience going 12 furlongs. 

Once again, home-track advantage is an oxymoron when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Especially when Europe once again sends an armada of decorated and experienced runners well-acquainted with covering 1 1/2 miles on grass without blinking. That armada starts with favorite Mostahdaf (5-2), who rides in off two Group 1 victories, including a wire-to-wire score in the Juddmonte International. 

Outside of the lack of value, you can’t go wrong with him. But we like another European standout—Auguste Rodin (3-1)—who should chisel out a little more value to go with his three Group 1 wins. Augusta Rodin has the benefit of ace jockey Ryan Moore aboard and Europe’s best trainer: Aidan O’Brien, pulling the strings. Those wins include two of the UK’s most iconic races: the Epsom Derby and the Irish Derby.

Should either one of those two contenders not show up, there’s French horse Onesto and upset-minded Japanese entry Shahryar, he of the $8 million in globetrotting earnings.

Breeders' Cup info

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 4 at 1:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, CA
• How to watch: 1:30 p.m. ET on USA Network and Peacock | NBC and Peacock coverage begins at 3:30 p.m. ET and runs until 7 p.m. ET. In addition, FanDuel TV will televise eight of Saturday’s nine races
• Purse: $31 million

What to know for betting the Breeders' Cup

Santa Anita Park is one of the most notorious speed-favoring tracks in the country. Deep, deep closers are at a deep, deep disadvantage because of the track’s speed bias. This explains why Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert’s charges are always contenders; the trainer is known for conditioning horses with front-end, tactical speed in mind.

It also explains why Baffert’s Arabian Knight, the 3-1 morning-line favorite in the Classic, will likely take plenty of money and leave the gate at odds lower than his morning line number. Baffert’s horses always take waves of odds-deflating cash, especially at his home track.

When handicapping races at Santa Anita, don’t necessarily discount closers, especially at a Breeders’ Cup featuring a lot of potential incendiary pace meltdowns and especially in the turf events. But seek out lone or dual front-end speed whenever possible.

This year’s Classic field doesn’t have a lot of the blistering speed we’ve seen in past editions. White Abarrio’s 110 Beyer Speed Figure is the fastest career mark in the field—and if he duplicated it and won, it would tie Raven’s Pass in 2008 for the slowest winning Beyer of the 10 previous Classics run at Santa Anita.

The average winning Beyer in the 10 Classics run at Santa Anita is 114.6. Only two winning Beyers this century were lower than 110: Drosselmeyer’s 104 in 2011 and Accelerate’s 105 five years ago.

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Breeders' Cup betting strategies

When handicapping the Classic, look past the average win payout of $23.50, which—according to the Breeders’ Cup—is the third-highest among the 14 races. It’s a false flag, courtesy of the greatest upset in Breeders' Cup history—Arcangues’ 1993 victory at Santa Anita that paid an eye-watering $269.20 for a $2 wager. 

Favorites have won only three times in the last 10 years: Flightline last year, Accelerate in 2018 and American Pharaoh in 2015. They’ve prevailed six times in the last 20 Classics—around the 35-40% you expect for favorites to prevail. But burps-in-the-universe like Arcangues aside, the Classic isn’t a race kind to long shots or dreamers.

Over the last 10 years, the average winning payout for a $2 bet was $8. Break this down further and the average Classic win payout over the last 20 years is $12.60 (5.30-1). Between 2003 and 2022, the winner paid $12.40 or less. Every one of the last 10 winners went off at 6.10-1 odds or worse. Nine of the last 10 winners were one of the top three betting choices.

All that said, if you’re going to hit a bomb, Santa Anita is the place to hit one. Only two of the 10 previous Classic winners crossed the wire at odds shorter than 4-1. Four of the eight winners on dirt (twice the Classic was held on an all-weather synthetic track at Santa Anita) paid $20.80 or more. The last time a mild long shot turned the trick there was Fort Larned, who paid $9.40 in 2012. The only favorite to win the Classic at Santa Anita was the iconic Zenyatta, who prevailed on the all-weather track in 2009.

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