Yankees vs. Royals Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's ALDS Game 4

The New York Yankees avoided falling into a 2-1 hole in the ALDS against the Kansas City Royals thanks to the heroics of Giancarlo Stanton, who hit the game-winning home run and somehow even stole a base. Who will rise to the occasion with the series on the line when these teams square off again on Thursday?

• The first three games of this series have been decided by a combined four runs, and each team has scored 11 runs
• Stanton carried the load on Wednesday amid another anemic performance by the rest of the Yankees lineup, with "World Series MVP odds favorite" Aaron Judge once again going hitless
• With a trip to the ALCS on the line, the Yankees send 2023 AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole to the mound
• Squaring off against Cole when first pitch is thrown at 8:08 p.m. ET from Kauffman Stadium will be Michael Wacha

Our Yankees vs. Royals prediction looks at whether Cole can do enough to get a struggling New York lineup through this series, or if Kansas City can grind out a Game 4 victory.

The Cleveland Guardians are also on the brink of a trip to Cancun, so check out our Guardians vs. Tigers prediction.

Yankees vs. Royals predictions: Game 4

• Moneyline pick: Yankees to win () ⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Gerrit Cole Over 4.5 strikeouts () ⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Yankees vs. Royals?

First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET, Kauffman Stadium

Yankees to win (-150) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -150 via bet365 | Implied probability: 60%

As a Boston Red Sox fan, I feel ugly doing this. And though I still don't believe in the Yankees as true contenders - despite betting on them to win it all back in December and the fact they serve as the World Series odds favorites - I think they have the upper hand in this series now.

Of course, every win in a five-game series is big, but Wednesday's was especially significant. I said on Wednesday that with Judge and Juan Soto struggling, someone else on the Yankees would have to step up. Well, Stanton did just that in a big way. He went 3-for-5 with the aforementioned home run and steal.

That should take some of the pressure off Judge and Soto, and it could help wake their bats up.

However, I don't expect that to be the reason the Yankees win on Thursday. No, that comes down to their ace doing ace-like things.

Cole wasn't great in Game 1, allowing seven hits and three earned runs over five innings, but this is one of the better playoff performers of the last five-plus years. Cole owns a career 3.05 ERA over 109 1/3 postseason innings, pitching to a 10-6 record.

And, at the end of the day, he managed to go five innings in that first contest, a feat not many other pitchers are accomplishing right now.

I think we see a repeat of Game 1: Cole pitches well enough to provide the Yankees with a small lead and the bullpen closes the door on another tightly contested victory.

See the rest of our MLB picks.

My Yankees vs. Royals best bet

Our NEW MLB player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Gerrit Cole Over 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐

We continue to focus on Cole by attacking his strikeouts prop.

The biggest challenge with any pitching props this postseason has been that pitchers aren't really allowed to go remotely deep into games.

On Wednesday, Alex Cobb went only three innings, Ranger Suarez went 4 1/3, Jose Quintana went five, Clarke Schmidt went 4 2/3, Seth Lugo went five, and Dylan Cease lasted only 1 2/3. It's difficult to rack up five-plus strikeouts when you're generally limited to five innings of playoff baseball.

However, I think Cole gets a longer leash on Thursday. He has the track record and the Yankees need a bit of relief for their heavily used bullpen.

The projections tend to agree, too. Cole is projected for 5.31 strikeouts in Game 4. When we run that number against these -128 odds at FanDuel, we're getting 8% positive expected value.

Look for Cole to show up in what's thus far been the biggest game of his season.

Best odds: -128 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.14%

Yankees vs. Royals odds & Game 4 info

• When: Thursday, Oct. 10
• First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
• Where: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City
• How to watch: TBS
• Favorite: Yankees (-150 via bet365)

MLB betting odds pages

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)