Yankees vs. Guardians Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight for ALCS Game 5

The New York Yankees are right on the doorstep of the Fall Classic, and they appropriately serve as the World Series odds favorites with a 3-1 stranglehold on the ALCS against the Cleveland Guardians.

Our Yankees vs. Guardians prediction expects this series to end Saturday night in Cleveland, as New York has thoroughly outplayed its opponent through the first four contests.

With only one more game at Progressive Field, the Guardians will need to win on the road if they hope to advance to the World Series, but they have to get through this game first. They'll send Tanner Bibee to the mound with their season on the line when first pitch is thrown at 8:08 p.m. ET.

Squaring off against Bibee will be Carlos Rodon, who pitched brilliantly in Game 1 at Yankee Stadium. Rodon managed to go six innings in that one, allowing only one run on three hits and striking out nine.

Could we be in for a repeat performance on Saturday, or will the Guardians force a Game 6 in the Big Apple?

Yankees vs. Guardians predictions: Game 5

• Moneyline pick: Yankees () ⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Tanner Bibee Over 3.5 strikeouts () ⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Yankees vs. Guardians?

First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET, Progressive Field (Cleveland)

Yankees to win ⭐⭐⭐

The Yankees will want to put a lid on this series without having to head back home. They've been the much better team throughout, faltering only in the late innings of Game 3 (and nearly Game 4, too).

Giancarlo Stanton is a man on a mission. He has just three hits in the series, but all three have been massive, game-changing home runs.

Additionally, after being put on fraud watch in the ALDS against the Kansas City Royals, Aaron Judge has bounced back with two long balls of his own against the Guardians. And Juan Soto continues to add to his already legendary postseason resume, as he owns a .868 OPS over 37 playoff games.

The Yankees will send Rodon to the hill on Saturday, and you never really know what you're going to get from him.

As previously mentioned, Rodon was spectacular against the Guardians in Game 1, but he stunk up Yankee Stadium in the ALDS. Which version of the southpaw will show up on Saturday?

In the end, I'm not sure it'll matter. Starting pitchers have been yanked from games quickly all postseason if they're struggling, and the key to any Yankees has been their explosive offense.

I wrote this on Friday, and I very nearly ate my words.

I'm just going to say it again and hope we have the same good fortune: "With three World Series MVP odds contenders in the lineup, the Yankees should put this game so far out of reach that not even Clay Holmes can blow it."  

Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%

See the rest of our MLB picks.

My Yankees vs. Guardians best bet

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Prediction: Tanner Bibee Over 3.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -144 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 59.02%

I think the Yankees will get to Bibee in this one, but this is an extremely low total, and one we took the Over on Friday with Gavin Williams. I'm going back to the well for Game 5.

Bibee is projected for 5.87 strikeouts on Saturday, and after managing to not escape the second inning and throwing only 39 pitches in Game 2, I think Guardians manager Stephen Vogt will try to get more out of his right-hander with his bullpen heavily used this series. 

Additionally, we saw Williams eclipse this number over just 2 1/3 frames on Friday night, as the Yankees feature plenty of swing and miss in their lineup; they struck out 14 times in Game 4.

If you want to stretch this even further for plus-money odds - as a winning $10 wager on this -144 price results in just $6.94 in profit - then FanDuel is also offering Bibee to go Over 4.5 strikeouts at +132.

Two of our other best sports betting sites offer the Over 3.5 at similar -145 odds, so you could place this at either DraftKings or bet365, too. Based on Bibee's projection, this bet is showing better than 40% positive expected value.

Meanwhile, Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - is trading this Over at -177 after opening at -140.

Yankees vs. Guardians odds

Yankees vs. Guardians live odds

Yankees vs. Guardians opening odds (via BetMGM)

• Moneyline: Yankees -115 | Guardians -105
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 +150 | Guardians +1.5 -182
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)

ALCS Game 5 game info

• When: Saturday, Oct. 19
• First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
• Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
• Weather: 62 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph E
• How to watch: TBS
• Favorite: Yankees (-120 via BetMGM)

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