Yankees vs. Guardians Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight for ALCS Game 4

The New York Yankees lost in heartbreaking fashion in Game 3 on Thursday night, as the Cleveland Guardians hit a game-tying home run in the ninth inning and then a walk-off blast in the 10th to avoid falling into a 3-0 series deficit. Now, Cleveland will look to even the ALCS in Game 4 at Progressive Field.

Our Yankees vs. Guardians prediction believes New York will bounce back on Friday, though.

The Yankees were right on the doorstep of all but locking up a trip to the ALCS. With two outs and Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor back in the dugout, closer Luke Weaver allowed a double to Lane Thomas and then a game-tying, two-run pinch-hit blast off the bat of Jhonkensy Noel.

However, the game was at that point only because Emmanuel Clase - the most dominant closer in baseball during the regular season - had another rocky outing, as did Hunter Gaddis.

The Guardians will go with Gavin Williams on the mound when first pitch is thrown at 8:08 p.m. ET at Progressive Field on Friday, and the Yankees will respond with MLB Rookie of the Year odds favorite Luis Gil.

Will it be a repeat showing by the Yankees on Friday, or can they shut the door this time around?

Before this game gets underway, the World Series odds favorites look to punch their ticket to the Fall Classic, and we broke that game down with our Dodgers vs. Mets prediction.

Yankees vs. Guardians predictions: Game 4

• Moneyline pick: Yankees () ⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Luis Gil Over 2.5 walks () ⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Yankees vs. Guardians?

First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET, Progressive Field (Cleveland)

Yankees to win ⭐⭐⭐

I'm taking the Yankees on Friday for many of the same reasons I backed them Thursday.

Aaron Judge has found his groove, and Giancarlo Stanton continues to be a baseball-crushing machine in the postseason.

As previously mentioned, Williams will take the mound for the Guardians, and he hasn't pitched since Sept. 22. When he did pitch this year - he managed just 76 innings - he stunk. Williams owned a 4.86 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, with the latter inflated by his continued walk issues.

Speaking of problems handing out free passes, Gil will start for the Yankees. He last pitched Sept. 28, a start in which he allowed four home runs.

Basically, both these starters will be on a short leash, and with both teams going deep into their bullpens for Game 3 - the Guardians used seven relievers and the Yankees used six - I find myself going back to Game 2. In that contest, Cleveland also used seven relievers while the Yankees turned to only four.

I think the Yankees have the fresher pitching staff, and with three World Series MVP odds contenders in the lineup, they should put this game so far out of reach that not even Clay Holmes can blow it.

Best odds: -122 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.95%

See the rest of our MLB picks.

My Yankees vs. Guardians best bet

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Prediction: Luis Gil Over 2.5 walks ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +145 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 40.82%

My analysis

Now, back to Gil and his walk issues.

It's entirely possible the Yankees don't allow him to pitch long enough to walk three batters, especially since the closing MLB Rookie of the Year odds favorite in the AL hasn't appeared in a game in more than half a month. However, he could very well walk a trio of batters in two innings with the way he hands out free passes.

Gil is projected to record 2.56 walks on Friday. That's not quite the three he'd need to go Over this total, but the value comes with these long odds.

As you can see, the +145 price at BetMGM has an associated implied probability of just more than 40%. Based on Gil's projection, we're getting 15.5% positive expected value on this bet because that 2.56 number suggests he has better than a 40% chance of walking at least three batters.

Another pitching prop I really like is Gavin Williams Over 3.5 strikeouts (), but that number is shortening in a hurry while this price on Gil's walk Over should survive. If you're able to bet both, I wouldn't talk you out of it.

Yankees vs. Guardians odds

Yankees vs. Guardians live odds

Yankees vs. Guardians opening odds (via BetMGM)

• Moneyline: Yankees -125 | Guardians +105
• Run line: Yankees +1.5 +125 | Guardians +1.5 -149
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)

ALCS Game 4 game info

• When: Friday, Oct. 18
• First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
• Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
• Weather: 60 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph ENE
• How to watch: TBS
• Favorite: Yankees (-125 via BetMGM)

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