Yankees vs. Guardians Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight for ALCS Game 3
Last Updated: October 17, 2024 10:44 AM EDT • 3 min 41 sec read.
One thing the Cleveland Guardians absolutely did not want to happen during this series was for Aaron Judge to get hot. Well, mission failed. Now Judge and the New York Yankees head to Progressive Field with a 2-0 lead in the ALCS.
It appears the Guardians poked the bear when they intentionally walked Juan Soto to face Judge with the bases loaded in Game 2 of the ALCS.
The likely AL MVP managed only a sacrifice fly in that plate appearance, but he eventually earned his revenge with a massive home run in the seventh inning.
Cleveland's problem was that Soto was already sizzling and crushing its pitchers. The Guardians' problem now is that Judge may have joined in on the fun.
Game 3 gets underway from Progressive Field today, with first pitch expected at 5:08 p.m. ET when Matt Boyd toes the rubber for the home underdogs.
Opposing the southpaw will be Clarke Schmidt, who enjoyed a very strong regular season before pitching well in his lone appearance against the Kansas City Royals.
The night rolls on after this contest with Game 4 of the NLCS, so be sure to check out our Dodgers vs. Mets prediction.
Yankees vs. Guardians predictions: Game 3
- Moneyline pick: Yankees () ⭐⭐⭐
- My best bet: Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases () ⭐⭐⭐
MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
Who will win Yankees vs. Guardians?
First pitch: 5:08 p.m. ET, Progressive Field (Cleveland)
Yankees to win ⭐⭐⭐
Maybe the Guardians will win Game 3 and make me look silly, but I think this series ended the moment Judge crushed that homer.
New York features a lineup that relies so heavily on its two stars, and now both have found their groove at the plate.
Boyd will start for the Guardians, but he may serve as more of a glorified opener. The left-hander went just two innings in his last appearance - Game 5 against the Detroit Tigers - and this contest comes with similar ramifications if Cleveland loses.
Meanwhile, Schmidt hasn't pitched deep in any game since returning from the injured list, and he threw only 71 pitches in his outing against the Royals. The bullpens could be heavily involved in this one.
Though previously it seemed that would give the Guardians a clear advantage, Cleveland's bullpen has been struggling.
Additionally, Tanner Bibee managed to go only 1 1/3 innings in Game 2, forcing the Guardians to use seven relievers. In comparison, Gerrit Cole at least went 4 1/3, allowing the Yankees to burn only four bullpen arms.
New York features a fresher pitching staff and the more dangerous lineup. That's a recipe for success, and the reason the Yankees are the World Series odds favorites.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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My Yankees vs. Guardians best bet
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Prediction: Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +145 via bet365 | Implied probability: 40.82%
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My analysis
The issue for the Guardians is that Soto was already torturing them, and now they can't pitch around him if Judge keeps hitting. And going right at Soto certainly won't end well.
Soto has logged just one batted ball this series at less than a 100-mph exit velocity.
It's important to remember he went 9-for-27 hitting with three home runs during the 2019 World Series as a 20-year-old with the Washington Nationals. He's been here before, and the moment absolutely doesn't shake him.
We're getting great value on this Over based on Soto's projections for Thursday. Based on that data, this bet is showing better than 30% positive expected value.
The rest of our best sports betting sites are hovering around +130 to back this same Over, so that makes this price even better.
It also might be time to start considering a bet on Soto's World Series MVP odds.
Yankees vs. Guardians odds
Yankees vs. Guardians live odds
Yankees vs. Guardians opening odds (via BetMGM)
- Moneyline: Yankees -125 | Guardians +105
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 +145 | Guardians +1.5 -175
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)
ALCS Game 3 game info
- When: Thursday, Oct. 17
- First pitch: 5:08 p.m. ET
- Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
- Weather: 58 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph WNW
- How to watch: TBS
- Favorite: Yankees (-115 via BetMGM)
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Andrew Brennan
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