Yankees vs. Dodgers Prediction, Prop Bets & Odds: Who Will Win World Series Game 1 Tonight?

We're just over an hour away from Game 1 of one of the most star-studded matchups in World Series history.

As we broke down in our recap of the latest World Series odds and betting lines, the Los Angeles Dodgers are favorites to beat the New York Yankees in Game 1 and to win the Fall Classic according to our best MLB betting sites.

With Game 1 set for tonight at 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX) from Dodger Stadium, there's still time to check out our Yankees vs. Dodgers predictions to see what Mike Spector expects from this series.

If that's not enough for you to digest before Gerrit Cole and Jack Flaherty square off on the mound, be sure to read our World Series expert picks for a look at what baseball analysts across the industry believe will happen.

Every game is set to be broadcast on FOX. So get your popcorn, double-check the World Series MVP odds of your favorite player, and get ready for the show.

Yankees vs. Dodgers predictions: Game 1

• Moneyline pick: Yankees () ⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Jack Flaherty Under 4.5 strikeouts () ⭐⭐⭐
• Aaron Judge prop bet: To hit a home run () ⭐⭐
• Shohei Ohtani prop bet: To steal a base () ⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Yankees vs. Dodgers?

First pitch: Dodger Stadium, 8:08 p.m. ET

Yankees to win ⭐⭐⭐

If you checked out our World Series staff picks, you'd see two out of the three of us believe the Yankees will win Game 1.

In that, I explained that I think the Yankees take Game 1 while riding another solid performance from Cole.

The right-hander did enough to help the Yankees win Game 2 against the Cleveland Guardians, allowing only two runs despite giving up six hits and four walks. I think he'll keep the Yankees in this game in a similar fashion.

Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty never really looked like the dominant pitcher he was with the Detroit Tigers once joining the Dodgers via trade, and he's been especially shaky in the postseason.

The veteran pitched very well in one game against the New York Mets in the NLCS, but he was annihilated in the other. And he wasn't very sharp in the Dodgers' Game 2 NLDS loss to the San Diego Padres, allowing four earned runs over 5 1/3 innings.

Additionally, Cole has logged the World Series experience, pitching in two such contests as a member of the Houston Astros. He's been here before, and the moment shouldn't shake him.

Finally, I've mentioned a few times in our World Series content that the Yankees were MLB's best road team this year. I think they'll use that advantage and others en route to a Game 1 victory.

Best odds: +108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 48.08%

See the rest of our MLB picks.

My Yankees vs. Dodgers best bet

Our NEW MLB player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Jack Flaherty Under 4.5 strikeouts⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 45.45%

My analysis

Flaherty simply wasn't the same pitcher after joining the Dodgers. Whether that was due to the added pressure of playing for the World Series odds favorites or regression after a blazing-hot start to the campaign (perhaps a bit of both), he's experienced a decline in multiple statistical categories.

Perhaps no area took a larger hit than his strikeout numbers.

Flaherty managed 11.22 strikeouts per nine across 106 2/3 innings with the Tigers. After that trade, he struck out only 9.92 per nine in 55 1/3 regular-season innings with the Dodgers.

Now the right-hander has racked up only eight punchouts across 15 1/3 postseason frames. That's just 4.70 per nine innings.

Therefore, it's no surprise that his projection for tonight's affair is relatively low at 4.07.

That's slightly above the four he needs to stay at or Under for this bet to win, but we're also getting great plus-money odds on the Under.

When we run his projection against these odds, we're getting roughly 9% positive expected value on this bet, and a winning $10 wager would result in $12 in profit.

Aaron Judge prop bet

Prediction: To hit a home run ⭐⭐

Best odds: +220 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 31.25%

My analysis

I'm all-in on Aaron Judge in the World Series after putting him on fraud watch throughout the postseason.

I really like that the Yankees' lineup is finally clicking around him, which should force the Dodgers to throw more pitches in the zone against Judge.

Additionally, as I discussed in our staff picks, Judge gets a huge boost from the setting of this World Series.

We all know how great Yankee Stadium is for hitters. But did you know that Dodger Stadium was the fourth-most home run friendly ballpark to right-handed batters this year?

I remember a time when Judge's home run prop was trading at obscene prices, and sometimes getting as short as minus money. These are pretty tasty odds for the best home run hitter in baseball to drill one during Game 1.

Shohei Ohtani prop bet

Prediction: To steal a base ⭐⭐

Best odds: +195 via bet365 | Implied probability: 33.90%

My analysis

If we're taking Judge to hit a home run, then surely we need to back Shohei Ohtani to steal a base.

Yankees rookie catcher Austin Wells certainly provided the team with a significant boost behind the plate after Jose Trevino allowed every player and their grandmother to steal second on him.

However, Wells still isn't exactly elite. He allowed 64 steals and threw out 22 baserunners this year.

Meanwhile, Ohtani racked up 59 stolen bases this season on an absurd 63 attempts. In fact, Ohtani went from July 22 to Game 1 on Oct. 13 against the New York Mets without being caught stealing.

The only thing really holding Ohtani back from stealing a base in Game 1 is that he's been truly abysmal with the bases empty throughout the postseason, basically hitting only when runners are in scoring position.

He's less likely to attempt a steal in the middle of a potential rally, so we'll likely need him to get on base by himself for this one to hit.

Yankees vs. Dodgers odds

Yankees vs. Dodgers live odds: Game 1

Game 1 opening odds

Odds via BetMGM

• Moneyline: Yankees +110 | Dodgers -130
• Run line: Yankees +1.5 -200 | Dodgers -1.5 +165
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Latest World Series odds

• Favorite: Dodgers -125 via BetMGM
• Underdog: Yankees +105 via BetMGM

World Series Game 1 game info

• When: Friday, Oct. 25
• First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
• Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
• Weather: 66 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph SW
• How to watch: FOX
• Favorite: Dodgers (-125 via BetMGM)

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