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Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday's ALDS Game 5

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 11, 2024 12:00 PM EDT • 2 min 51 sec read.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal celebrates as we look at our best Tigers vs. Guardians prediction for ALDS Game 5.
Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal celebrates after a double play against Cleveland Guardians. Photo by: Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians battle it out on Saturday night at Progressive Field in a winner-take-all Game 5 for the right to go to the ALCS.

  • With a 5-4 win in Game 4, Cleveland snapped an 11-game postseason losing streak when facing elimination
  • David Fry had the second pinch-hit home run in Guardians postseason history in Game 4
  • Tigers starter Tarik Skubal won the AL Pitching Triple Crown (leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts)

Detroit can think of no better person to have on the mound than Skubal in this elimination game, and our Tigers vs. Guardians prediction expects Detroit to ride its ace to the ALCS.

Tigers vs. Guardians predictions: Game 5

  • Moneyline pick: Tigers () ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 earned runs (-135 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Tigers vs. Guardians?

First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET, Progressive Field

Tigers to win (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.55%

Skubal has been nails this postseason, throwing 13 scoreless innings and allowing only seven hits with a 14:1 K:BB ratio. Per , Skubal is the first pitcher in MLB history to pitch at least six shutout innings and allow fewer than six players on base in each of his first two career playoff starts.

Oddsmakers believe that Guardians southpaw Matthew Boyd will match zeros with Skubal, with the game at a low O/U of six runs. And while Boyd held Detroit scoreless for 4 ⅔ innings while generating 14 whiffs on his changeup alone, it is a tough task to ask him to compete with the likely AL Cy Young Award winner for a second consecutive start.

The Tigers are 6-2 in Skubal’s last eight starts against teams that made the playoffs this year, so their being road favorites is completely justified. Detroit is also 52-31 in its last 83 games, profiting its backers 21.65 units.

A $10 winning wager at BetMGM’s -120 odds would pay out $18.33.

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See the rest of our MLB picks.

My Tigers vs. Guardians best bet

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Prediction: Tarik Skubal Under 1.5 earned runs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Dating back to the regular season, opponents have scored two or fewer total runs in eight of Skubal’s last 11 starts. And the southpaw himself has gone under this projected total in eight of his previous 10 starts, including the playoffs, so the 57.45% implied probability for this wager seems low relative to his past success.

When Skubal wasn’t striking out Guardians hitters at a high clip (he easily surpassed his O/U of 5.5 strikeouts with eight in Game 2) in his last start, he was a ground-ball-inducing machine. The lefty ended with 10 ground balls and four fly balls, his best ground ball to fly ball ratio of the season.

All of our best sports betting apps that offer this prop are in unison with the -135 odds, and my $10 wager is backed with four stars of confidence, in the hopes of netting $7.41 in profits.

Best odds: -135 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 57.45%

Tigers vs. Guardians odds & Game 5 info

  • When: Saturday, Oct. 12
  • First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
  • Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
  • How to watch: TBS/Max
  • Favorite: Tigers (-120 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”