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Tigers vs. Astros Prediction & MLB Playoff Odds Today: Wild Card Series Game 1

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 30, 2024 2:31 PM EDT • 2 min 50 sec read.

Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal throws a pitch against Tampa Bay Rays as we offer our Tigers vs. Astros Game 1 prediction.
Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal throws a pitch against Tampa Bay Rays. Photo by Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Detroit Tigers overcame long preseason odds to clinch a playoff spot, and they look to start strong in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series against the Houston Astros.

  • Detroit has been one of the best teams in baseball for the last couple of months
  • One of the Astros’ best sluggers is dealing with an injury
  • Houston is looking to get back to the ALCS or beyond for the eighth consecutive year

Our Tigers vs. Astros prediction makes the case for the Tigers, the road underdogs at our best MLB betting sites and comparative World Series odds long shots, to steal Game 1 behind the likely AL Cy Young Award winner.

Tigers vs. Astros predictions: Game 1

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Tigers vs. Astros?

First pitch: 2:30 p.m. ET, Minute Maid Park

Tigers to win (+120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 45.45%

As surprising as it is that Detroit made the postseason, it should not be this big of an underdog with Tarik Skubal on the mound.

Skubal became the third Tigers pitcher to win the AL Pitching Triple Crown, finishing with a league-best 18 wins, 228 strikeouts, and a 2.39 ERA. Detroit is 7-2 in Skubal’s last nine starts with a +29 run differential in that span and is 4-2 in his previous six starts against teams in this year’s playoff field.

Houston’s lineup is potentially facing a massive void with Yordan Alvarez missing the final week of the regular season with a knee sprain.

Considering Alvarez is slashing .362/.411/.617 against southpaws this season, his absence would make the Astros lineup much less intimidating.

This is a matchup of the two best teams in the AL since Aug. 10, but Detroit has MLB’s best record in that span (its 31-13 record was 4.5 games better than Houston’s), and the Tigers were nine games over .500 (21-12) against left-handed starting pitchers this season.

bet365 offers a price as low as +115 to back the underdogs, so I am taking advantage of the extra value at BetMGM, where a winning $10 wager would bet $12 in profits.

See the rest of our MLB picks.

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Prediction: Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 hits allowed  ⭐⭐⭐

Skubal has a 2.90 ERA and 0.953 WHIP when pitching on six-plus days of rest, compared to a 2.89 ERA and 1.016 WHIP on regular rest.

The lefty has allowed four or fewer hits in seven of his previous nine starts, and while his two strikeouts in a road June start against Houston is concerning, that is mitigated by his career-best 34% hard-hit rate allowed, and the best BABIP (.273) since his rookie year.

Caesars is the only one of our top sports betting sites offering a price better than +110 to back the Under. I am placing my $10 wager there, hoping for a $21.20 payout.

Best odds: +112 via Caesars | Implied probability: 47.17%

Tigers vs. Astros odds & game info

  • When: Tuesday, Oct. 1
  • First pitch: 2:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Minute Maid Park (Houston)
  • How to watch: ABC
  • Favorite: Astros (-135 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”