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Royals vs. Yankees Prediction & MLB Playoff Odds Today: ALDS Game 1

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 5, 2024 3:50 PM EDT • 3 min 30 sec read.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays as we look at our Royals vs. Yankees prediction.
New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole pitches against the Toronto Blue Jays. Photo by Brad Penner/Imagn Images

The Kansas City Royals clash with the New York Yankees for the first time during the postseason since 1980. The Royals are fresh off toppling the Baltimore Orioles, and now Kansas City is seeking another stunning upset of an AL East opponent.

The Royals come in as a long shot in the World Series odds, and they'll be facing a team with two of the top three players in the World Series MVP odds.

  • Kansas City’s 106 losses last year are the most from a team that then made the playoffs the following campaign
  • The Yankees are getting the shortest odds to win the AL pennant

New York comes in as a massive favorite in this ALDS based on our MLB odds. But we've dug up better value in our Royals vs. Yankees prediction ahead of Game 1.

Royals vs. Yankees predictions: Game 1

  • Run-line pick: Royals +1.5 () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Gerrit Cole player prop bet: Under 2.5 earned runs allowed () ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Royals vs. Yankees?

First pitch: 6:38 p.m. ET, Yankee Stadium

Royals +1.5 (-126) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: | Implied probability: 55.75%

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The Royals just held a Baltimore Orioles offense that finished the regular season fourth in runs to a mere one run over 18 innings. They'll look to do the same against a Yankees lineup that scored an AL-best 815 runs, but one that was more effective on the road this season.

New York was six games better on the road (50-31) than at home this season (44-37). The key to beating the Yankees is to limit the damage that the top of the order can do, and veteran Michael Wacha is capable of executing.

Gleyber Torres and Aaron Judge, who sits second in the World Series MVP odds, are a combined 1-for-34 in their careers against Wacha, with the latter striking out 11 times across 18 at-bats.

The only player in the Yankees' lineup who has done real damage against Wacha is Anthony Rizzo (.393 batting average, three home runs). But he's fighting through the pain of two fractured fingers suffered during the last weekend of the season.

New York won an MLB-best 55 games against teams over .500. But Wacha gave up a career-best 32.6% hard-hit rate, and his OPS allowed the last two seasons were each his best since 2019. I expect him to keep Kansas City in the game.

The Yankees have covered the run line in just 42.3% of their games as a home favorite this year, while the Royals boast a 34-20 run-line record (63%) as road underdogs. Thus, New York’s -205 moneyline odds at DraftKings aren't justifiable, and we're getting great value with -126 odds to back Kansas City at +1.5 runs.

See the rest of our MLB picks.

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Prediction: Gerrit Cole Under 2.5 earned runs ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

All of our best sports betting sites are in unison with these -175 odds for Gerrit Cole to allow two or fewer earned runs. And while that may seem like a steep price to pay, this wager comes with five stars, as Cole has allowed one or fewer earned runs in seven of his previous nine starts.

Cole has given up a slash line of .236/.259/.347 against current Royals hitters. And he's been neutralizing Kansas City’s two most significant threats. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are a combined 3-for-22 against him with one home run.

Cole is in fine form after throwing just 95 innings this year. He should be locked and loaded to begin this postseason strong, just as he's been while posting a 6-0 record and 1.71 ERA in seven career ALDS starts.

Best odds: | Implied probability: 63.64%

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Royals vs. Yankees odds & game info

  • When: Saturday, Oct. 5
  • First pitch: 6:38 p.m. ET 
  • Where: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
  • How to watch: TBS/Max
  • Favorite: Yankees ()

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”