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Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction & Odds Today

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: September 12, 2024 1:08 PM EDT • 2 min 44 sec read.

Boston Red Sox left fielder Tyler O'Neill hits a three-run home run to win the game against the Baltimore Orioles.
Boston Red Sox left fielder Tyler O'Neill hits a three-run home run to win the game against the Baltimore Orioles. Photo by David Butler II via Imagn Images.

The Boston Red Sox visit the World Series odds-favorite New York Yankees on Thursday, with both teams fresh off extra-innings walk-off wins. Will we see more fireworks when they collide?

Boston walked off another AL East rival on Wednesday, as Tyler O'Neill blasted a three-run homer in the 10th inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park.

Meanwhile, the Yankees provided some drama of their own, as Jazz Chisholm hit a walk-off single in the 11th to take down the Kansas City Royals.

Both teams carry plenty of momentum heading into this affair at Yankee Stadium, with the first pitch expected for 7:15 p.m. ET.

Will Nestor Cortes and the Yankees silence Boston's bats? Or will the Red Sox continue their march up the AL wild-card standings?

Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions

  • Yankees moneyline ()
  • Nestor Cortes Under 5.5 strikeouts ()

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Red Sox vs. Yankees?

First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET, Yankee Stadium

Yankees to win (-170) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 62.96%

Simply put, the Yankees are the team to beat in the American League.

They roster the AL MVP odds runaway favorite (Aaron Judge) and the third-best player in the majors by fWAR (Juan Soto). The club also now features the MLB Rookie of the Year odds front-runner (Austin Wells).

Meanwhile, the Red Sox have come back down to earth during the second half of the season following a hot start. The bullpen has collapsed, and the once-elite rotation now ranks 10th in fWAR.

Additionally, though Boston owns the 10th-best team wRC+ in baseball, it's only 15th against left-handers. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, the Yankees are sending southpaw Cortes to the hill.

Red Sox everyday starters Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, and Ceddane Rafaela are all below-average hitters against left-handers. Designated-hitter Masataka Yoshida and right-fielder Wilyer Abreu will likely hit the bench in favor of righties, taking two valuable bats out of the lineup.

Look for the Yankees to assert their dominance on Thursday night.

See the rest of our MLB picks.

Red Sox vs. Yankees player prop

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Prediction: Nestor Cortes Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐

Cortes returns to the rotation following his first relief appearance in three years. That wasn't due to poor performance (he owns a solid 3.97 ERA for the season), but the hurler isn't racking up strikeouts in any meaningful way.

The left-hander has failed to go Over this number in four straight appearances, and he's struck out only 41 batters across his last 10 outings (52 1/3 innings).

Cortes is projected on Thursday to record only 4.99 punchouts. Based on that projection, we're getting nearly 20% positive expected value through these -110 odds.

My only concern with this prop is that the Red Sox do own the worst strikeout percentage in baseball against left-handers at 28.2%, which is why I'm making this just a three-star pick rather than four stars despite the low projection.

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Red Sox vs. Yankees odds & game info

  • When: Thursday, Sept. 12
  • First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
  • Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, N.Y.
  • How to watch: NESN, YES Network
  • Favorite: Yankees ()

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.