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Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Prediction & Odds Today: AL East Basement-Dwellers Do Battle

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: September 23, 2024 1:53 PM EDT • 2 min 48 sec read.

Boston Red Sox pitcher Tanner Houck in the second inning against the Detroit Tigers.
Boston Red Sox pitcher Tanner Houck in the second inning against the Detroit Tigers. Photo by Rick Osentoski via Imagn Images.

Expectations were sky-high for one of these teams when the season got underway, while the other appeared to be a World Series odds dark horse around the trade deadline. Now they're the two worst teams in the AL East. Woof.

Our Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction features two teams just trying to cross the finish line of this never-ending MLB season.

They'll send two talented righties to the hill when first pitch is thrown at 7:07 p.m. ET from Rogers Centre, and we're targeting one of them with our player prop bet on Monday.

Can Boston finish the season with a .500 record, or will the Blue Jays play spoilers and drag the Red Sox down into the gutter with them?

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays predictions

  • Red Sox moneyline ()
  • Tanner Houck Over 4.5 strikeouts ()

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Red Sox vs. Blue Jays?

First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET, Rogers Centre

Red Sox to win (+110) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 47.62%

As a Red Sox fan, I always expected to be here: fighting to finish the season with a .500 record, likely falling short.

But Blue Jays fans, how did we get here? From nearly landing MLB MVP odds mega favorite Shohei Ohtani to still remaining among the World Series contenders before the campaign began to ... this. 

Attendance at the Rogers Centre is down roughly 4,000 fans per game this season compared to last, and it'd be a surprise to see even 30,000 fans pack the dome on Monday night.

That should provide Tanner Houck and the Red Sox with at least a slightly more favorable situation, which they'll need after playing two games on Sunday.

However, Boston won both of those contests against the Minnesota Twins, and I think that'll work in its favor on Monday.

The best thing a bad team can have is a sense of rhythm, and after striking out a shocking 20 times on Friday night, those two victories on Sunday did a lot to help the Red Sox somewhat right the ship.

I think Boston will carry that momentum into Monday, and these +110 odds provide us with great value.

It's not a huge edge, but the implied probability for a Red Sox win should be closer to 50% (+100).

See the rest of our MLB picks.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prop bet

Our NEW MLB player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Tanner Houck Over 4.5 strikeouts (+130)⭐⭐⭐

Houck was once among the contenders by the MLB Cy Young odds for much of the early portion of the season, but he's had a brutal second half.

The right-hander managed a 2.54 ERA and 8.62 strikeouts per nine innings across 117 first-half innings. Those numbers have cratered to a 4.61 ERA and 6.67 K/9 across 56 2/3 second-half innings. That's a microcosm of Boston's season as a whole.

However, Houck has a good chance to finish the campaign strong on Monday.

He's projected to record 4.82 strikeouts against the Blue Jays. Though that's not quite close enough to the five he needs to clear this total as you'd hope, the +130 odds we're getting provide great value.

In fact, this bet shows nearly 20% positive expected value based on that projection and this price. These are also the best odds across any of our best sports betting sites.

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 43.48%

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds & game info

  • When: Monday, Sept. 23
  • First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
  • Where: Rogers Centre, Toronto
  • How to watch: NESN, Sportsnet
  • Favorite: Blue Jays ()

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.