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Phillies vs. Mets Prediction, Picks & Odds Today for NLDS Game 4

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 9, 2024 9:14 AM EDT • 3 min 21 sec read.

New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor reacts at second base as we look at our Phillies vs. Mets prediction for NLDS Game 4
New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor reacts at second base. Photo Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images.

The New York Mets look to be the first to punch their ticket to the NLCS as they host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of the NLDS tonight.

  • With a 7-2 win in Game 3, the Mets improved to 5-4 at home against the Phillies this year
  • New York has never lost a Division Series in its postseason history
  • Philadelphia needs a win to keep alive hopes of advancing to a third consecutive NLCS

Our Phillies vs. Mets prediction expects the home underdogs to close out this series and continue their surprising postseason run and boost their World Series odds.

We had a profitable 1-1 day with our Phillies vs. Mets Game 3 prediction, as Nick Castellanos cashed our wager at +180 odds to drive in a run.

Phillies vs. Mets predictions: Game 4

  • Moneyline pick: Mets () ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 runs () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Phillies vs. Mets?

First pitch: 5:08 p.m. ET, Citi Field

Mets to win (+100) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50%

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The Phillies missed a chance to take a 2-1 lead in this series as they had the hitting split advantage in Game 3, with better splits against southpaws than the Mets had against right-handed pitching.

Now, New York faces a left-hander in Ranger Suarez, who has not pitched in 11 days. The Phillies finished the regular season 0-3 in his last three starts, with one of those coming against the Mets.

New York ranked fourth in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers after the trade deadline. The Mets made Suarez labor through 91 pitchers over five innings in a 6-3 win in his second-to-last start of the regular season, and eventually pushed two runs across in his five innings.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia struggled against lefty Sean Manaea yesterday despite Manaea entering with an 0-3 record and a 10.66 ERA in his postseason career. Now they get another southpaw in Jose Quintana. Quintana led the Mets to five wins in his last six starts and blanked the Phillies on three hits in seven scoreless innings in a win on Sept. 13. ;

Quintana mixed his pitches well in his lone postseason start this year, a 4-2 win over the Milwaukee Brewers, when he threw four pitches at least 20% of the time. His sinker and curveball induced a 32% and 37% CSW%, respectively. He was also effective in keeping the ball down, with an 11:5 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio.

New York is 13-2 in its last 15 home games, so getting it at even-money odds is a great value. With FanDuel’s +100 odds, Mets backers would double their money on a winning wager.

See the rest of our MLB picks.

My Phillies vs. Mets best bet

Our NEW MLB player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Francisco Lindor Over 0.5 runs (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Francisco Lindor continues to set the table at the top of the Mets' lineup. He has scored five runs through six postseason games and has at least one run scored in four of the six.

Lindor has a .313/.389/.563 slash line in 16 career at-bats against Suarez, with two of the five hits going for extra bases.

With New York averaging 5.7 runs per game over the last seven games that Lindor has played in, this is a four-star play because of the confidence I have in the Mets sluggers hitting behind him to drive him in. 

Phillies vs. Mets odds & Game 4 info

  • When: Wednesday, Oct. 9
  • First pitch: 5:08 p.m. ET 
  • Where: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
  • How to watch: FS1
  • Favorite: Phillies (-115 via BetMGM)

Wednesday's MLB playoff picks

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”