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Phillies vs. Mets Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's NLDS Game 3

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 8, 2024 11:55 AM EDT • 3 min 17 sec read.

Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos hits a walk-off single as we look at Phillies vs. Mets NLDS Game 3 prediction
Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos hits a walk-off single to score in the ninth inning against the New York Mets. Photo by: Bill Streicher/Imagn Images.

After the Philadelphia Phillies tied the Division Series at a game apiece with an instant classic in Game 2 on Sunday, they head to Queens as short road favorites for Game 3 with the New York Mets.

  • This is the first time New York is hosting a playoff game this season
  • Nick Castellanos delivered the fifth walk-off hit in Phillies postseason history in Game 2
  • The Mets and Phillies split eight regular season meetings at Citi Field this year

Our Phillies vs. Mets prediction is looking to build off the momentum of going 3-1 through Games 1 and 2, including a 2-0 record cashing on +135 odds with Bryce Harper’s Over 0.5 RBIs prop with our Game 2 prediction.

Phillies vs. Mets predictions: Game 3

  • Moneyline pick: Phillies () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Nick Castellanos player prop bet: Over 0.5 RBIs () ⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Phillies vs. Mets?

First pitch: 5:08 p.m. ET, Citi Field

Phillies to win (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%

It took five consecutive road playoff games, but the Mets finally get to host a postseason game this year, and one can expect a raucous crowd from Citi Field. However, if any team can handle a hostile road atmosphere, it is the battle-tested Phillies. Philadelphia has reached the NLCS or better in consecutive years.

Phillies righty Aaron Nola is 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA in his last four postseason starts. He is 6-6 with a 3.28 ERA in 14 career starts at Citi Field but has a solid 1.035 WHIP, and his 10.8 K/9 rate is his highest at any visiting ballpark (min. three starts).

This is only a three-star play, as the Mets nearly completed their 45th comeback win of the season and fourth of the postseason in Game 2 (their 44 comeback wins are tied for the most in the majors). However, Philadelphia showed magic of its own, winning its first postseason game in 22 tries when entering the sixth inning trailing by three-plus runs. 

This is the Mets’ first home game in two weeks after playing in four different cities, and I expect that schedule and that travel to start catching up with them in this pivotal game. 

All of our other best sports betting apps have the Phillies as -115 moneyline favorites, so I am taking advantage of the best odds at FanDuel, where a winning $10 wager would pay out $19.09.

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See the rest of our MLB picks.

My Phillies vs. Mets best bet

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Prediction: Nick Castellanos Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐

The Phillies are in their better-hitting split when facing southpaw Sean Manaea, ranking 13th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching and fifth against lefties.

Each of the top three batters in the Phillies lineup (Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper) batted .300 or better against left-handed pitchers this year. Those table-setters should provide Castellanos with plenty of RBI opportunities, and his 34 RBIs against southpaws this season were the second-most on the team.

This is a three-star play, as Castellanos has performed very well against Manaea in his career, going 6-for-16 with three home runs. His implied probability of driving in a run is as high as 36.76% based on Caesars’ +172 odds, so the best value is at BetMGM, where a $10 winning wager would net $18 in profits.

Best odds: +180 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 35.71%

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Phillies vs. Mets odds & Game 3 info

[Odds widget from editors]

  • When: Tuesday, Oct. 8
  • First pitch: 5:08 p.m. ET
  • Where: Citi Field, Queens, N.Y.
  • How to watch: FS1
  • Favorite: Phillies (-115 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”