Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's NLDS Game 5

The rubber match has come for the NLDS between two NL West rivals as the underdog San Diego Padres visit the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday.

• The Dodgers, who boast two players in the top six of the World Series MVP odds, are coming off an 8-0 win in Game 4 - the largest shutout victory in franchise postseason history
• San Diego missed the postseason last year, but it knocked out L.A. in the NLDS when they last met in 2022
• The Dodgers have best World Series odds of any NL team — and second best overall, trailing only the New York Yankees

Our Padres vs. Dodgers prediction for today's NLDS Game 5 recognizes the starting pitching edge that San Diego has as it looks to punch its ticket to the NLCS to battle the New York Mets.

Padres vs. Dodgers predictions: Game 5

• Moneyline pick: Padres () ⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Mookie Betts Over 0.5 RBIs () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Padres vs. Dodgers?

First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET, Dodger Stadium

Padres to win (+120) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 45.45%

The last time these two teams met at Dodger Stadium it was a hostile environment with tempers flaring between players and fans acting unruly in the stands. But on the field, the Padres tied the postseason record with six home runs and Yu Darvish cruised through seven strong innings.

I'm not about to underestimate San Diego’s chances of winning this series despite entering this game on a 15-inning scoreless streak. After all, Los Angeles has still lost eight of its last 10 playoff games, while Darvish hasn't lost a road postseason start since joining the Padres.

San Diego is 3-1 in Darvish’s four road postseason starts, while the righty has recorded 18-plus outs in three of the four while pitching to a 2.52 ERA and 19:7 K:BB ratio. He's held current Dodgers to a combined .192/.269/.322 slash line in 239 at-bats, with 35.8% of the outs coming via strikeout.

This is a three-star play, as I expect Los Angeles to counter with Jack Flaherty, who didn't come into the Game 2 start with much momentum. Flaherty finished September with a .271 xBA, a .431 xSLG, and a 10.8% walk rate during the month over five starts.

Most of our best sports betting sites are aligned while posting +120 odds for San Diego (Caesars is the only one slightly lower at +118). So I'm heading to BetMGM, where my $10 wager would net $12 in profit if it cashes.

See the rest of our MLB picks.

My Padres vs. Dodgers best bet

Our NEW MLB player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Mookie Betts Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mookie Betts went 0-for-4 in Game 2 before entering Game 3 mired in an 0-for-22 playoff slump.

However, he was hitting the ball well still and nearly homered in Game 2. And Betts has caught fire over the last two games with four hits in nine at-bats, including two home runs and just one strikeout. He's posted an eye-popping 1.056 OPS in this series despite early struggles.

While I expect Darvish to pitch well, this is a hedge of sorts on the Padres moneyline wager, as the righty has allowed a HR/9 rate of 1.2 or worse in three of the last four seasons.

Additionally, Darvish’s fly ball rate is up considerably to 28.5% from 21.5% last year (the second-lowest of his career). And with Betts hitting behind Shohei Ohtani, there will likely be plenty of RBI opportunities in most of his at-bats.

A $10 winning wager at DraftKings’ +150 odds would return a payout of $25.

Best odds: +150 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 40.00%

Padres vs. Dodgers odds & Game 5 info

• When: Friday, Oct. 11
• First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET 
• Where: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, Calif.)
• How to watch: FOX
• Favorite: Dodgers (-140 via BetMGM)

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