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Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction & Odds Today: Can Ohtani Chase Down Judge for Home Run Crown?

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: September 25, 2024 1:59 PM EDT • 3 min 39 sec read.

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani celebrates on a game-tying solo home run during the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies.
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani celebrates on a game-tying solo home run during the ninth inning against the Colorado Rockies. Photo by Kiyoshi Mio via Imagn Images.

Following an incredible triple play to end Tuesday night's game, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be looking for revenge against the San Diego Padres, and Shohei Ohtani should play his usual massive role in the outcome of this NL West showdown.

Our Padres vs. Dodger prediction looks at two of the top teams by the World Series odds. And of course, the game features the runaway NL MVP favorite.

Ohtani blew past the unfathomable 50/50 milestone and is now chasing a different type of statistical dominance. He sits just three home runs back of fellow MLB MVP odds favorite Aaron Judge in the home run race (53 to 56) and will try to close the gap on Wednesday.

When first pitch is thrown at 10:10 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium, Jack Flaherty will take the mound for the home team. Opposing him will be Padres right-hander Dylan Cease, setting up a potential pitcher's duel after a relatively low-scoring affair on Tuesday.

Will Ohtani make his presence felt? Or can San Diego's pitching staff silence his bat?

Padres vs. Dodgers predictions

  • Dodgers moneyline ()
  • Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run ()

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Padres vs. Dodgers

First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET, Dodger Stadium

Dodgers to win (-135) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 57.45%

It appeared Tuesday night's game was set to feature some fireworks, as the Dodgers strung together three straight singles in the bottom of the ninth to pull within two runs.

No. 9 hitter Miguel Rojas came up to the dish with two men on and no out, setting the stage for the lineup to turn over and Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman to get their say in the result.

Unfortunately for L.A., the unthinkable happened. Rojas grounded into a game-ending triple play, leaving the top of the order to watch on in disbelief.

With the win, the Padres moved within two games of the Dodgers in the NL West, and the home team knows how important Wednesday's game is to extend its division lead. 

Flaherty gets the nod for the Dodgers. He hasn't been quite as good for his new team as the hurler was with the Detroit Tigers before the trade deadline. But his 3.40 ERA provides Los Angeles with plenty of optimism that the veteran can be a key starter during the postseason. It might still be the regular season, but this will certainly feel like a playoff affair.

Meanwhile, Cease is facing the Dodgers for the second time this campaign after lasting only 5 2/3 innings due to three walks in that lone outing. The free passes suggest Cease was nibbling a bit against this lineup, and who wouldn't?

If the right-hander throws too many strikes though, his night could be even shorter this time around, especially now that Betts isn't on the injured list like he was in that previous game.

I like Flaherty and the Dodgers to bounce back from Tuesday's heartbreaking defeat, and these -135 odds represent the best price among our best sports betting sites.

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Shohei Ohtani prop bet

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Prediction: Ohtani to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐

Judge and Ohtani look as though they'll battle to the very end in the home run race.

The Yankees slugger hit his 56th long ball on Tuesday night, and I expect Ohtani to respond against the Padres.

I bet on Ohtani to lead the league in home runs at +470 last week. Unfortunately, Judge has begun mashing again after an extended cold spell. Fortunately, this is Ohtani we're talking about.

The Dodgers megastar recorded the hardest-hit ball on Tuesday at 110 mph. Who knows what would have happened if he had received one last chance in the ninth. We saw him pull off a similar heroic feat just a few days earlier.

At this point, I'm not sure any odds will come with an implied probability that properly illustrates how dangerous Ohtani has been over the last month. His 12 home runs across the last 30 days lead the majors.

With Ohtani at 53 home runs and 55 steals, it's essentially impossible (or so we think) that he becomes the first player ever to achieve 60/60. But he can continue to add to both totals with five days remaining in the campaign.

I'm betting he'll add to at least one on Wednesday.

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 28.57%

Padres vs. Dodgers odds & game info

  • When: Wednesday, Sept. 25
  • First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
  • Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
  • How to watch: Spectrum SportsNet LA
  • Favorite: Dodgers ()

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.