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Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction & MLB Playoff Odds Tonight: NLDS Game 1

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 5, 2024 5:31 PM EDT • 2 min 26 sec read.

San Diego Padres outfielder Jurickson Profar singles against the Atlanta Braves. We're backing Profar in our Padres vs. Dodgers prediction.
San Diego Padres outfielder Jurickson Profar singles against the Atlanta Braves. Photo by Denis Poroy via Imagn Images.

It's an NL West showdown on Saturday night from Dodger Stadium with the San Diego Padres taking on the Los Angeles Dodgers.

  • This is the third time in five seasons that these teams have met in the playoffs
  • San Diego went 43-20 after the All-Star break, the best record in baseball
  • Los Angeles is one of two teams with shorter than +400 World Series odds

The Dodgers have the shortest odds of any team on Saturday, and our Padres vs. Dodgers prediction finds value with the underdogs in Game 1.

Padres vs. Dodgers moneyline movement

The Dodgers opened as a -150 moneyline favorite. The line has since come down to -135 ahead of first pitch.

The Dodgers have 51% of the money on them, with 49% on the Padres. The Over has 57% of the money, with the total sitting at 7.5.

Padres vs. Dodgers predictions: Game 1

  • Moneyline pick: Padres () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Jurickson Profar player prop bet: Over 0.5 RBIs (+200 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Padres vs. Dodgers?

First pitch: 8:38 p.m. ET, Dodger Stadium

Padres to win (+120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 45.45%

San Diego’s .683 winning percentage was the best of all MLB teams after the All-Star Break. The Padres came a long way from being 37-40 in mid-June when they were fourth place in the NL West and 10 games behind the Dodgers.

San Diego’s 8-5 head-to-head record against Los Angeles was its best against any NL West opponent this year, and its 50 regular-season wins against teams over .500 were just one fewer than L.A.’s 51.

San Diego split its two games with Los Angeles in Dylan Cease’s starts against the NL West rival this year, but i outscored the Dodgers by six runs in those games. Cease was at his best down the stretch, throwing 14 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings prior to his last start, finishing September with a 2.97 ERA in five starts.

DraftKings has the shortest odds (+114) for San Diego to win outright, so I am taking advantage of the best payout at BetMGM, where a $10 winning wager would net $12 in profit.

See the rest of our MLB picks.

MLB player prop bets

Our NEW MLB player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Jurickson Profar Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐

Jurickson Profar is more deserving of a 33% implied probability to drive in a run in this game, considering he has batted .364 with a 1.455 OPS in 11 career at-bats against Jack Flaherty.

All of Profar’s four hits against the righty have gone for extra bases (including two home runs), and there should be plenty of traffic on the basepaths for Profar considering Flaherty has allowed a .277/.394/.500 slash line in 65 combined at-bats to current Padres hitters.

DraftKings has slightly lower +195 odds for Profar to break a seven-game RBI drought, so the best return for Profar backers is at BetMGM.

A $10 winning wager would return double that in profit ($20).

Best odds: +200 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 33.33%

Padres vs. Dodgers odds & game info

  • When: Saturday, Oct. 5
  • First pitch: 8:38 p.m. ET
  • Where: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, Calif.)
  • How to watch: FS1
  • Favorite: Dodgers (-140 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”