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Mets vs. Phillies Prediction & MLB Playoff Odds Today: Division Series Game 2

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 6, 2024 8:58 AM EDT • 3 min 15 sec read.

Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper celebrates with teammates after scoring against the Miami Marlins as we look at our Mets vs. Phillies prediction.
Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper celebrates with teammates after scoring against the Miami Marlins. Photo by Sam Navarro/Imagn Images.

The Philadelphia Phillies look to even the Division Series with the New York Mets when they host their division rivals in Game 2 on Sunday afternoon. Both teams remain mid-tier contenders in the World Series odds, as does Phillies slugger Bryce Harper in the World Series MVP odds.

  • The Mets are the third team to win back-to-back playoff games after trailing in the eighth inning or later
  • New York and Philadelphia have now split their 14 head-to-head meetings this year
  • The Phillies have never won a playoff series after losing Game 1

Our Mets vs. Phillies prediction expects the favorites to take Game 2 after getting to New York’s starting pitcher early.

Mets vs. Phillies predictions: Game 2

  • Moneyline pick: Phillies () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Bryce Harper player prop bet: Harper Over 0.5 RBIs () ⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Mets vs. Phillies?

First pitch: 4:08 p.m. ET, Citizens Bank Park

Phillies to win (-154) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -154 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 60.63%

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The Mets have to love the spot they're in now, as the club will head to Citi Field for Game 3 with no worse than a split of the first two games.

New York will trot out Luis Severino to start Game 2, and the righty has been tabbed to pitch two of the team’s most important games lately (the first contest of their last regular-season series against the Atlanta Braves, and Game 1 of the Wild Card series against the Milwaukee Brewers). However, Severino has been lit up for eight runs in 10 combined innings across those two starts, bringing his overall postseason record to 2-4 with a troubling 5.07 ERA in 12 appearances (11 starts).

The Mets are just 5-7 in Severino’s last 12 starts, and the Phillies scored six runs apiece in the two games Severino started against them within the last three weeks.

I also expect Cristopher Sanchez to lead Philadelphia to a win in this pressure spot, especially since the Phillies are 6-0 the last six times he's toed the rubber, with two wins over the Mets by a combined 12-3 in that span.

All of the best sports betting sites are aligned with either -154 or -155 moneyline odds to back the favorites. So I'm heading to FanDuel to bet on Philadelphia, where a winning $10 wager would pay out $16.49. 

See the rest of our MLB picks.

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Prediction: Bryce Harper Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐

Severino has allowed three-plus runs in four consecutive starts, and that had me scouring Philadelphia's batter player prop odds.

Harper is 2-for-5 hitting with two home runs against Severino. And while I would not put anyone off backing his +320 odds to hit a home run at either or , the +135 odds for him to drive in a run are a great value. He slashed .315/.394/.543 in September with 13 extra-base hits and 11 RBIs.

This is a three-star play, as Severino has issued multiple walks in 11 of his previous 16 starts, so there should be plenty of traffic on the basepaths for Harper’s at-bats.

Harper is also due for positive regression from an RBI standpoint, as he's driven in a run during just one of the last nine games despite ranking in the 88th percentile in hard-hit rate and xSLG.

Best odds: +135 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 42.55%

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Mets vs. Phillies odds & game info

  • When: Sunday, Oct. 6
  • First pitch: 4:08 p.m. ET 
  • Where: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pa.)
  • How to watch: FS1
  • Favorite: Phillies (-155 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”