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Mets vs. Brewers Prediction & MLB Playoff Odds Today: Wild Card Series Game 1

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: October 1, 2024 10:52 AM EDT • 3 min 14 sec read.

Milwaukee Brewers right fielder Jackson Chourio reacts after hitting a double against the New York Mets.
Milwaukee Brewers right fielder Jackson Chourio reacts after hitting a double against the New York Mets. Photo by Benny Sieu via Imagn Images.

The MLB postseason is here, and following two exciting games in the American League, the first NL Wild Card Series gets underway when the New York Mets visit the Milwaukee Brewers. It's fair to wonder if the road team will have anything left in the tank following an emotional playoff-clinching performance on Monday.

Our Mets vs. Brewers prediction features one of a few true surprises in the 2024 MLB postseason picture. Along with the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals in the AL - who we featured in our Tigers vs. Astros prediction and Royals vs. Orioles prediction - Milwaukee was very much not expected to still be playing in October before the season began.

The Brewers were projected to finish fourth in the NL Central - barely ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates - by the projected win totals at our best sports betting sites. Now, they're set to host Game 1 at American Family Field, with first pitch expected for 5:32 p.m. ET.

Facing the Brewers is a Mets squad that squeaked into the postseason thanks to a victory in the first contest of their doubleheader with the Atlanta Braves on Monday.

Can the Brewers take advantage of a potentially tired Mets team and continue this surprising run, or will New York ride its wave of momentum into the playoffs?

Mets vs. Brewers predictions: Game 1

  • Brewers moneyline ()
  • Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 total bases (+137 via Betway)

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Mets vs. Brewers?

First pitch: 5:32 p.m. ET, American Family Field

Brewers to win (-140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -140 via Betway | Implied probability: 58.33%

The narrative surrounding this game will surely center around how unfair it is that the Mets just played on Monday while the Brewers did on Sunday. And sure, that might play a role in the result of Game 1. However, the reason I'm picking the Brewers is simply because they're better.

Milwaukee ranked fifth in the majors by batter fWAR thanks to a blend of quality contact hitting (.248 average was eighth-best), speed (217 stolen bases were second-most), and elite defense (11.5 defensive rating was sixth-best). 

Additionally, the Brewers' pitching staff had the fifth-best ERA in the majors, and they feature one of the best 7-8-9 bullpen trios in baseball, with Jared Koenig (2.47 ERA) and Trevor Megill (2.72 ERA) setting up one of the game's truly elite closers, Devin Williams (1.25 ERA).

The Mets are certainly no pushovers, but they're not being priced as though they are.

New York's +120 moneyline odds are the shortest among any of the underdogs on Tuesday at Betway. Accordingly, the Brewers own the longest moneyline odds of the favorites despite finishing with the third-best run differential in all of baseball this season. Let's take advantage of this pricing.

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Prediction: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 total bases ⭐⭐⭐

He may not be crowned the NL Rookie of the Year, but Jackson Chourio had an incredible season.

Chourio accrued 3.9 fWAR in a 20/20 campaign, having a second half to remember with a .310/.363/.552 slash line. We're looking for Chourio to continue his hot hitting in Game 1 of this Wild Card Series.

Taking the mound for the Mets is Luis Severino, who was in the bottom half of the league in batting average against, and neither his 1.14 home runs per nine innings nor his 12.3% HR/FB were especially impressive. He also doesn't strike out a ton of hitters, at just 7.96 per nine.

Also working in Chourio's favor is that he hits toward the top of Milwaukee's lineup (either leadoff or in the two-spot) and doesn't take a ton of walks, providing him with plenty of opportunities to rack up hits and go Over 1.5 total bases.

Best odds: +137 via Betway | Implied probability: 42.19%

Mets vs. Brewers odds & game info

  • When: Tuesday, Oct. 1
  • First pitch: 5:32 p.m. ET
  • Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Favorite: Brewers (-140 via Betway)

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.