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Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction, Picks & Odds for ALCS Game 1

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 14, 2024 9:47 AM EDT • 3 min 2 sec read.

New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto celebrates a win as we look at our Guardians vs. Yankees ALCS Game 1 prediction.
New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto celebrates a win over the Kansas City Royals. Photo by: Jay Biggerstaff/Imagn Images.

The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees meet in the first game of the ALCS at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx on Monday night.

  • The Yankees went 4-2 in six head-to-head meetings with the Guardians this year
  • This is the fourth Guardians-Yankees postseason meeting since 2017, with New York winning each of the previous three
  • New York is a -190 moneyline favorite to win the series at DraftKings

Our Guardians vs. Yankees prediction expects Cleveland to take advantage of New York’s starting pitcher who has not inspired much confidence of late, en route to a road upset.

Guardians vs. Yankees predictions: Game 1

  • Moneyline pick: Guardians () ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Juan Soto Under 0.5 strikeouts () ⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Guardians vs. Yankees?

First pitch: 7:38 p.m. ET, Yankee Stadium

Guardians to win (+140) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +140 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 41.67%

New York should not have as high as 62.41% implied odds in this game, especially since it has lost each of Carlos Rodon’s last two starts, and five of his last nine.

It is a small sample size because Cleveland only had 144 plate appearances against southpaws in September, but it posted a collective 153 wRC+, 9.7% walk rate, and 21.5% strikeout rate in that split. And the Guardians beat the best left-handed starting pitcher in the sport in Game 5 of the ALDS, tagging Tarik Skubal for five runs after he entered the start with 24 consecutive scoreless innings.

Both bullpens were fantastic in the ALDS, but I give the nod to Cleveland’s pen in this series. Guardians relievers combined for a 3.16 ERA in the Division Series but four of those nine runs came against Emmanuel Clase, who should positively regress to the 0.61 ERA he pitched to in the regular season.

Cleveland won 64% of its games (16-9) after a day off this season, and with Aaron Judge coming off an ALDS in which he batted .154 and slugged .231, New York’s lineup is much less intimidating.

DraftKings is one of our best sports betting apps, offering better than +136 odds to back road underdogs, so I am placing my $10 wager there in the hopes of netting $14 in profits.

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My Guardians vs. Yankees best bet

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Prediction: Juan Soto Under 0.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐

Soto is 7-for-11 with two home runs and a 1.939 OPS against Guardians righty Alex Cobb. However, I am not looking much into Soto’s total bases or RBI props based on these numbers, as he will likely just get one at-bat against the righty. 

Four of Soto’s 10 outs in the ALDS came via strikeout, and he struck out in three of the four games against Kansas City. 

However, while his strikeout rate was slightly higher at home (62 strikeouts in 288 home at-bats versus 57 strikeouts in 288 at-bats on the road), him to go without a strikeout is still worth a flier at +155 odds, especially since he struck out just five times in 23 at-bats against the Guardians this season.

Best odds: +155 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 39.22%

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Guardians vs. Yankees odds & Game 1 info

  • When: Monday, Oct. 14
  • First pitch: 7:38 p.m. ET
  • Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, N.Y.
  • How to watch: TBS/truTV/Max
  • Favorite: Yankees (-160 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”