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Guardians vs. Tigers Prediction, Picks & Odds Today for ALDS Game 4

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 10, 2024 8:56 AM EDT • 3 min 3 sec read.

Cleveland Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee throws in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers as we look at our Guardians vs. Tigers prediction for Game 4.
Cleveland Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee throws in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers. Photo Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images.

The Cleveland Guardians are on the brink of elimination as they find themselves in a 2-1 hole when facing the Detroit Tigers in Game 4 of the Division Series. The Tigers have soared up the World Series odds with the ALCS in reach.

  • This is Detroit’s second home playoff game since 2014
  • After Game 3 finished 3-0, the Under is 21-3-4 in Cleveland’s games since the start of September
  • Cleveland has not won a World Series in 76 years

Our Guardians vs. Tigers prediction expects Cleveland to break out of its offensive slump enough to send this series back to Progressive Field for a decisive fifth game on Saturday.

Guardians vs. Tigers predictions: Game 4

  • Moneyline pick: Guardians () ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Tanner Bibee Over 5.5 strikeouts (+136 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Guardians vs. Tigers?

First pitch: 6:08 p.m. ET, Comerica Park

Guardians to win (-112) ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -112 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.83%

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The Guardians remain small road favorites in Game 4 despite not scoring in 20 consecutive innings. That is the longest scoreless streak in franchise postseason history.

Cleveland opened this series with a five-run outburst in the first inning of Game 1, and has totaled just two runs on 12 hits in the 26 innings since. The Guardians went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position on Wednesday.

The encouraging sign is that they out-hit Detroit yesterday despite using a pitcher (Alex Cobb) making his fourth start of the season. They also used six relievers.   

According to MLB's Sarah Langs, history is not on Cleveland’s side. In a best-of-five series tied 1-1 entering this postseason, the Game 3 winner has won the series 73% of the time. And in this current 2-2-1 format, home teams up 2-1 have won 81% of the series, with 18 of the 25 series ending in Game 4.

However, the Guardians have their best pitcher going in Tanner Bibee. Not only has the team won his last three starts, but they are 4-1 in his five starts against the Tigers this season.

Cleveland’s implied win probability is as high as 54.55% based on DraftKings’ -120 odds, so I am making my $10 wager at FanDuel, where a winning bet would return a payout of $18.93.

See the rest of our MLB picks.

My Guardians vs. Tigers best bet

Our NEW MLB player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Tanner Bibee Over 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +136 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 42.37%

Tanner Bibee went over this projected total with six strikeouts in just 4 2/3 innings in Game 1, but we are getting plus-money odds to back the Over again, as he has recorded six-plus strikeouts in just two of his five starts against Detroit this season.

I am making the Over a three-star play, as the Game 1 start was the first time Bibee faced Detroit since July, and the Tigers had the third-worst strikeout rate (26%) in the regular season's final month.

Detroit entered this series with 11 players with a strikeout rate of 24% or worse, and Zach McKinstry was the only hitter on the postseason roster that struck out better than 22% of the time.

If Cleveland wins there is an off-day tomorrow, but I expect Bibee will get a longer leash than the 76 pitches he threw in Game 1 given that the Guardians used six relievers in Game 3.

A winning $10 wager at FanDuel’s +136 odds would net $13.60 in profits.

Guardians vs. Tigers odds & Game 4 info

  • When: Thursday, Oct. 10
  • First pitch: 6:08 p.m. ET 
  • Where: Comerica Park (Detroit)
  • How to watch: TBS//Max
  • Favorite: Guardians (-112 via FanDuel)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”