Dodgers vs. Mets Prediction, Picks & Odds Tonight for NLCS Game 4

Coming off yet another postseason shutout victory on Wednesday, the Los Angeles Dodgers look to be the first team to win back-to-back games in this NLCS when they take on the New York Mets in Game 4.

• Los Angeles has four shutout victories (the most of any team this postseason) in its last five playoff games as it gains ground in the World Series odds
• In LCS history when a series was tied 1-1, the team that won Game 3 won the series 68% of the time
• All three games in this series have been decided by four-plus runs with the Over going 3-0

Our Dodgers vs. Mets prediction expects the desperate home team to even the series behind a strong performance from a veteran southpaw.

Dodgers vs. Mets predictions: Game 4

• Moneyline pick: Mets () ⭐⭐⭐
• My best bet: Yoshinobu Yamamoto () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Dodgers vs. Mets?

First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET, Citi Field

Mets to win ⭐⭐⭐

The Mets are in almost the same scenario as they were in Game 2, needing a victory after a shutout defeat to avoid falling behind by two games in this series. And just like in Game 2, I expect New York to get a fantastic performance from a veteran southpaw to even the series.

Jose Quintana has not allowed an earned run in 11 innings this postseason, and the team is 6-1 in his last seven starts overall. Despite the loss yesterday, New York is still 65-41 since June 1 (best in MLB) and entered Game 3 winning 14 of its last 16 games at Citi Field while averaging 5.4 runs per game with a 2.42 starter ERA in that span.

New York could not push a run across yesterday, but the optimistic view is that it could have been a much different game if it drove in any of the six runners it stranded through the first three innings.

With a southpaw on the mound, the Mets figure to neutralize several of the Dodgers’ best hitters. 

Shohei Ohtani, the World Series MVP odds favorite, entered the series with a .867 OPS against southpaws compared to a 1.128 OPS against right-handed pitchers. Max Muncy and Gavin Lux batted .172 and .152, respectively, against lefties, while Freddie Freeman’s average against southpaws was 50 points lower than against righties.

FanDuel is the only one of our top sports betting sites offering better than +115 moneyline odds to back the Mets. With its +120 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $12 in profits.

Best odds: +120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 45.45%

See the rest of our MLB picks.

My Dodgers vs. Mets best bet

Our NEW MLB player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 1.5 earned runs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 54.55%

My analysis

If the Mets are to even this series, it will likely do most of their damage off the Dodgers relievers. Thirty-two of New York’s 45 postseason runs have come off of opponents’ bullpens. 

Yamamoto was elite from a Called Strikes plus Whiffs this season, ranking in the 94th percentile in that metric. All of the pitches in his arsenal generated at least a 31.5 CSW%.

This Under is a four-star play, as Yamamoto is not likely to be given a long leash in this outing. The O/U on his outs recorded is 13.5, with the Under carrying as high as a 57.81% implied probability based on Caesars’ -137 odds.

Dodgers vs. Mets odds

Dodgers vs. Mets live odds

Dodgers vs. Mets opening odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -135 | Mets +114
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 +130 | Mets +1.5 -155
• Over/Under: Over 7 (-120) | Under 7 (+100)

NLCS Game 4 game info

• When: Thursday, Oct. 17
• First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
• Where: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
• Weather: 54 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph N
• How to watch: FS1
• Favorite: Dodgers (-135 via BetMGM)

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