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Dodgers vs. Marlins Prediction & Odds Today: Ohtani on Doorstep of 50 Steals

Andrew Brennan

Last Updated: September 19, 2024 10:30 AM EDT • 2 min 54 sec read.

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani reacts on the field before the game against the Miami Marlins.
Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani reacts on the field before the game against the Miami Marlins. Photo by Sam Navarro via Imagn Images.

Shohei Ohtani is on the doorstep of 50 steals, and his Los Angeles Dodgers conclude their series in Miami against the lowly Marlins. The NL MVP odds favorite already has a home run and stolen base across the first two games.

  • Ohtani stole base No. 49 on Wednesday after hitting his 48th home run on Tuesday
  • Marlins send right-hander Edward Cabrera and his 1.42 home runs per nine innings to the mound
  • Can the superstar DH go deep or steal a base in the series finale on Thursday, and is there any value on either prop at this point?
  • Dodgers are massive -200 favorites
  • First pitch: 4:40 p.m. ET from loanDepot park in Miami

Dodgers vs. Marlins predictions

  • Dodgers moneyline ()
  • Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run ()

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Dodgers vs. Marlins?

First pitch: 4:40 p.m. ET, loanDepot park (Miami)

Dodgers to win (-200) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 66.67%

This one is a bit of a no-brainer.

Sure, the Dodgers lost on Tuesday, but they still managed to score nine runs in the defeat. They nearly repeated that effort on Wednesday in the 8-4 win.

Now, Los Angeles sends its No. 1 pitcher to the mound in Jack Flaherty. The right-hander hasn't been quite as good with the Dodgers as he was with the Detroit Tigers prior to the trade deadline, but he's still provided the rotation with quality pitching.

Opposing him will be Cabrera, who owns a 4.55 ERA across 89 innings this year and has dealt with the aforementioned home run issues.

The biggest reason we're riding with the Dodgers on Thursday, though, is simply because they need this win. Los Angeles is still only 3.5 games up on the San Diego Padres in the NL West, so every win matters during this final week and half.

The World Series odds favorites have a 67% implied probability of winning on Thursday, based on this price. Though I don't love betting into -200 odds, they're the best across any of our best sports betting sites, so we're getting value still.

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Shohei Ohtani prop bet

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Prediction: Ohtani to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐

Ohtani stole his 49th base of the season on Wednesday after hitting his 48th home run on Tuesday, so is it just that simple that he'll flip-flip once again?

OK, maybe it's a bit deeper than that. In fact, the numbers very much support this bet.

Based on Ohtani's projection of 0.37 home runs on Thursday, we're getting better than 30% positive expected value through these +320 odds. This represents one of the best prices across any of our best sports betting apps.

I'm not seeing a ton of value on Ohtani to steal a base in this series finale, which is trading at a far shorter +135. That has an implied probability of 42.55%, which feels a bit bold based on Ohtani's projections.

Therefore, I think the megastar has a better chance of making it 49/49 on Thursday rather than reaching the 50 mark on either side (though he could hit two homers, which is trading at +1600 via Betway 👀).

Best odds:  | Implied probability: 23.81%

Dodgers vs. Marlins odds & game info

  • When: Thursday, Sept. 19
  • First pitch: 4:40 p.m. ET
  • Where: loanDepot park, Miami
  • How to watch: Spectrum SportsNet LA, Bally Sports Florida
  • Favorite: Dodgers ()

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.