Aaron Judge Home Run Odds & Picks: World Series Game 1

Aaron Judge isn't exactly a prolific hitter in the postseason, but I'm betting on him to change the narrative in his first World Series appearance when his New York Yankees take on the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Judge's Yankees will play the first two games of the Fall Classic at Dodger Stadium, with Game 1 getting underway at 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX) on Friday.

Jack Flaherty gets the "honor" of throwing the first World Series pitch to Judge, and he might not get the ball back. Judge owns the shortest odds to hit a home run on Friday alongside Shohei Ohtani across our best MLB betting sites, and there's a chance those prices aren't short enough.

As I discussed in my Yankees vs. Dodgers prediction for Game 1, I've changed my mind about Judge after declaring him a playoff fraud during the ALCS.

Will we be rewarded for our confidence? Or will Judge play second fiddle to his superstar teammate like SBR's Sean Tomlinson predicted in our World Series staff picks?

For everything you need to know about the exciting series, team, and player prop markets, be sure to check out our World Series odds and betting lines ahead of Game 1.

Aaron Judge home run odds: Game 1

MLB odds as of Friday and subject to change. Track the MLB scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.

Our NEW MLB player prop odds tool can help you find the best home run odds across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Best Aaron Judge home run pick: Game 1

Aaron Judge to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +210 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 32.26%

Judge's Yankees serve as the underdogs in this showdown by the World Series odds. But as our World Series expert picks showed, many of baseball's top analysts are backing New York. However, Mike Spector took the opposite side in his World Series predictions.

I'm right there with those who believe the Yankees will win, and Judge will play a massive role in the victory.

The World Series MVP odds contender should greatly benefit from the change of scenery after playing five of his last nine games at either Kauffman Stadium (22nd-most home run friendly ballpark to right-handed hitters) and Progressive Field (17th).

Meanwhile, Dodger Stadium - the site of Games 1 and 2 (as well as Games 6 and 7 if necessary) - was the fourth-most home run friendly ballpark to righties this season.

Judge is also perhaps the greatest beneficiary of the Yankees' improved offensive play lately. There was a time when his home run prop was trading at minus money, and with only Juan Soto an even remotely capable hitter, teams pitched around Judge.

Now Gleyber Torres is providing a spark from the leadoff spot, Giancarlo Stanton is hitting nukes for fun, and Anthony Rizzo and Anthony Volpe are getting on base at an absurd clip. That should force the Dodgers' pitching staff to throw strikes to Judge.

A winning $10 wager would result in $21 in profit. You could make this a half-unit bet and still walk away up one full unit if Judge hits a home run. 

World Series Game 1 game info

• When: Friday, Oct. 25
• First pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET
• Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
• Weather: 66 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 5-mph SW
• How to watch: FOX
• Favorite: Dodgers (-125 via BetMGM)

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