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2024 PGA Championship Props Picks & Odds: Scheffler the Favorite at Valhalla

Matt MacKay

Last Updated: May 15, 2024 5:07 PM EDT • 4 min 62 sec read.

With the 2024 PGA Tour season's second major set to tee off on Thursday, we're offering our PGA Championship props picks. Expectedly, Scottie Scheffler is the outright betting favorite based on the odds from our best golf betting sites.

Rory McIlroy's recent triumphs at the Zurich Classic and Wells Fargo Championship have ignited excitement ahead of the PGA Championship. His stellar performance positions him as a leading contender for the upcoming tournament at Valhalla Golf Club.

Scottie Scheffler returns to the spotlight after a hiatus following the birth of his son. Although he missed the opportunity to compete in the previous major at Valhalla in 2014, where McIlroy secured victory, Scheffler is determined to leave his mark this year.

Meanwhile, defending champion Brooks Koepka, who clinched his third PGA Championship title at Oak Hill CC in 2023, exudes confidence. Despite finishing T-15 at Valhalla in 2014, Koepka remains a formidable presence at the venue. With current odds placing him at +1400, just behind Scheffler and McIlroy, Koepka is undoubtedly a player to watch closely.

Here are our PGA Championship props picks for Valhalla Golf Club based on the odds from our best sports betting sites (confidence rating based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

PGA Championship props

  • Rory McIlroy to finish top 10 () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Scottie Scheffler to finish top 5 () ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Stephan Jaeger to finish top 40 () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Rory McIlroy to finish top 10 ⭐⭐⭐

McIlroy returns to the site of his last major win in 2014. He’s undoubtedly riding the biggest wave of momentum he’s experienced in the last year, following a win with teammate Shane Lowry at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, while rallying over the weekend to wind up beating Xander Schauffele by five strokes at 17-under-par for his fourth win at Quail Hollow Club.

Valhalla suits McIlroy’s elite off-the-tee prowess, so he should wind up in the top ten on the leaderboard by Sunday night. 

This is only a three-star play because Scottie Scheffler, the World No.1, is back in action this week. Plus, before this past two-week stretch of success, McIlroy only had one top-ten finish, logging a third-place finish at Valero. He wound up T-22 at The Masters, which was the first major of the 2024 PGA Tour season. However, his confidence must be high returning to the site of his second PGA Championship win and coming off of back-to-back wins. This is a solid value to acquire for betting on Northern Ireland’s star golfer to record a top-ten finish.

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Scottie Scheffler to finish top 5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

There isn’t a lot of persuasion necessary to jump on Scheffler’s top-five finishing position odds this week. Scheffler took a couple of weeks off to be present for the birth of his first child, but now, he’s ready to compete at Valhalla.

Scheffler began playing in PGA Tour events in 2014, however, he didn’t play enough to qualify at Valhalla. Thus, this is the first time he’ll be teeing off at this Jack Nicklaus-designed course. Scheffler has fared well on virtually every track this season, including others constructed by Nicklaus.

Ranked first in strokes gained off-the-tee and strokes gained approach, Scheffler is also fifth in SG: around-the-green. Only his putter stands in the way at 97th in SG: putting, but we’ve seen him quickly improve with the flat stick, winning four of his past five events outright.

Scheffler is +105 to record a top-five finish at Valhalla. He was the runner-up behind Brooks Koepka at Oak Hills Country Club in the 2023 PGA Championship. The Texas native also logged a T-4 finish at TPC Harding Park during the 2020 PGA Championship.

Still not convinced? In 2024, Scheffler has recorded a top-five finish in seven of 10 events played. This includes five consecutive top-five finishes, amounting to four outright wins, including at the first major of the year.

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Stephan Jaeger to finish top 40 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Our final prop play targets German golfer Stephan Jaeger to finish top 40 this week. Jaeger is the only golfer who has managed to beat Scheffler in the last five events played, benefiting from a five-foot birdie miss that would’ve forced a playoff at the Houston Open.

Jaeger’s first PGA Championship appearance came in 2023 at Oak Hills CC. He recorded a T-50 finish, imploding during the final round with a 76. It should be a bit different at a slightly friendlier course like Valhalla.

Ranked 17th strokes gained off-the-tee and 14th strokes gained around the green, Jaeger can hover in the top 40 despite needing to improve his irons and putter. In the last five events played, the German won his first PGA Tour event, missed the cut at The Masters, then wound up T-18, T-20, and T-21. This final three-event stretch includes two Signature Events, although he missed the cut at the season's first major. 

Based on his strengths off-the-tee and around the greens, this seems a manageable feat, so let’s stake a one-unit wager on this top-40 finishing position prop.

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PGA Championship betting pages

How to bet on golf

Betting on golf involves understanding the various types of bets available and how to assess player performance. First, familiarize yourself with the different types of bets commonly offered in golf, including outright winner bets, each-way bets (which cover both a win and a top finish), head-to-head matchups between two players, and proposition bets on specific events within a tournament, such as hole-in-one occurrences or individual player performances on certain holes.

Once you've identified the types of bets you're interested in, research the players, course conditions, recent form, and other relevant factors that could influence outcomes. Pay attention to factors like player statistics, recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form that may affect a player's performance.

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Written By:
Matt MacKay
Matt MacKay has handicapped golf, the NFL, NCAAF, and NHL since joining the sports betting industry as a writer in 2020. He’s worked for several prominent sites, recently expanding his coverage to include sports betting news and the regulatory industry. Bringing a background in communications and writing, earning a Masters Degree in Organizational Communication from Ohio University, Matt has co-hosted a fantasy football and sports betting podcast, while continuously refining his handicapping methods. This includes identifying recent trends, head-to-head statistics, and comparing individual and team strengths and weaknesses to accurately predict the outcome in certain betting markets before a game or event. He’s a daily bettor and tends to wager on FanDuel, with DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet as preferred sports betting app alternatives. An avid researcher, writer, editor, and podcaster, Matt is eager to dig into matchups to offer readers and subscribers value on his picks. He’s a big proponent of building bankroll by avoiding poor betting habits and tendencies, like chasing losses, placing too many wagers, and managing bankroll. His worst beats to date both came on two separate NFL parlays, losing due to Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown dropping passes. NRFIs have quickly become one of Matt’s favorite betting markets, recently diving into MLB game props.