UConn vs. North Carolina Prediction & Picks: Fenway Bowl Odds

UConn and North Carolina kick off the first of eight bowl matchups on Saturday when they meet at the Fenway Bowl from Fenway Park in Boston at 11 a.m. ET (ESPN).

• UConn enters this game at 8-4, its best record since 2010
• North Carolina’s 6-6 season led to head coach Mack Brown’s firing, and the hiring of legendary coach Bill Belichick
• The Huskies have not won a postseason game since 2009

As part of our college bowl game predictions this week, our UConn vs. North Carolina prediction believes the Huskies have an excellent shot at an outright upset, and we'll take the underdog with the points as a security blanket.

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds. 

UConn vs. North Carolina prediction & best pick: Fenway Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: UConn +2.5 () vs. North Carolina ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• My best pick: Jacolby Criswell Under 1.5 passing TDs () ⭐⭐⭐

UConn vs. North Carolina ATS prediction

UConn to cover the spread: +2.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +100 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50%

A team’s mindset and motivation level heading into bowl season is sometimes the best way to handicap a bowl game, and all of that points straight toward the Huskies.

Not only does UConn have a distinct geographic advantage with this game being played a short drive away in Boston, but it's motivated to end a 16-year postseason drought.

Head coach Jim Mora has the Huskies program on the rise, improving the team from three wins last year to eight this year, their most since 2010.

Meanwhile, the Tar Heels already have one eye to next season when Belichick will take over. UNC stumbled down the stretch with losses to Boston College and NC State in its final two games, despite being favored in both.

Don’t buy into UNC’s strength of schedule

Regardless of how both teams ended the year, most casual bettors will back UNC, citing that it played a much more difficult schedule out of the ACC than UConn did as an independent.

While it is true that the Tar Heels faced seven teams that made bowl games this year, North Carolina lost each of its last six such games, with its only win being a two-point victory in its season opener at Minnesota.

UNC’s big portal loss

Not all losses to the transfer portal or opt-outs are created equal, and perhaps no team suffered a bigger loss in this matchup than North Carolina, as leading rusher Omarion Hampton has declared for the NFL draft.

Hampton ran for a career-high 1,660 yards this season and tied a career-high with 15 rushing touchdowns. He was a big reason the Tar Heels ranked 13th in EPA per rush.

UConn vs. North Carolina best pick

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Jacolby Criswell Under 1.5 passing TDs ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -128 via Caesars | Implied probability: 56.14%

North Carolina lost starting left tackle Harold Sampson to the transfer portal (Texas Tech). Backup tackle Jakiah Leftwich also transferred, hurting its offensive line depth.

Meanwhile, UNC offensive coordinator Chip Lindsay took the same job at Michigan, and a new play-caller should impact the Tar Heels’ rhythm in this game.

Even if Durrell Robinson doesn’t play for UConn, it still has two running backs with 100-plus carries this season. The Huskies averaged more than 400 yards of total offense per game, and close to 200 rushing yards per game, so it should control time of possession.

Jacolby Criswell threw for one or fewer touchdowns in three of four games to end the regular season, making the 56.14% implied probability for this wager a steal. The Under is juiced to -130 at bet365, so we are taking advantage of the best price at Caesars.

UConn vs. North Carolina odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

UConn vs. North Carolina live odds

UConn vs. North Carolina opening odds:

• UConn: +4.5 (-110)
• North Carolina: -4.5 (-110)

UConn vs. North Carolina injuries

Fenway Bowl game info

• When: Saturday, Dec. 28
• Kickoff: 11 a.m. ET (12 p.m. = noon)
• Where: Fenway Park (Boston)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: 39 degrees, 55% chance of precipitation, wind 6 mph SW
• Favorite: North Carolina -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

College football betting odds pages

Here are our best college football betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)