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Tulane vs. Florida Prediction & Picks: Gasparilla Bowl Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 20, 2024 11:50 AM EST • 4 min 30 sec read.

Florida Gators wide receiver Aidan Mizell, Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway, and Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh celebrate at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium as we look at our Tulane vs. Florida prediction.
Florida Gators wide receiver Aidan Mizell, Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway, and Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh celebrate at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun via Imagn Images.

The Florida Gators won't need to travel far for this Gasparilla Bowl matchup against a new-look Tulane Green Wave offense.

  • Former Tulane starting quarterback Darian Mensah has already committed to Duke after being one of the most coveted players in the transfer portal
  • The Green Wave lost consecutive games to end the regular season, including a 35-14 defeat to Army in the AAC Championship
  • Florida is on a three-game winning streak, with two of those wins coming against AP top 25 teams 

Our Tulane vs. Florida prediction for the Gasparilla Bowl expects the Gators to cover a significant spread against the portal-ravaged Green Wave.

Kickoff from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on Friday afternoon, airing on ESPN2.

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds.

Tulane vs. Florida prediction & best pick: Gasparilla Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Florida -13.5 () vs. Tulane ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: DJ Lagway Over 1.5 passing touchdowns () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tulane vs. Florida ATS prediction

Florida to cover the spread: -13.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -105 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.22%

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Tulane was raided by the portal

Mensah entering the portal and committing to Duke leaves the Green Wave without much of their offensive identity, and they must scramble to bring backup Ty Thompson up to speed for this game.

Mensah threw for over 2,700 yards with a 23:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season. He ranked fourth among Group of Five starting quarterbacks in QBR (76.5), which was also good enough for a top-20 ranking nationally. 

The signal-caller ranked first in the conference in yards per attempt (9.5) and completion percentage (66%). 

Now Thompson will lead the team's offense, and he's attempted just 11 passes this year. However, he did score six rushing touchdowns while often used in heavy goal-line packages.

Florida took off under Lagway

Gators head coach Billy Napier entered the season with one of the hottest seats among Power 5 head coaches. And his outlook seemed even more bleak after he lost starting quarterback Graham Mertz for the year due to a torn ACL.

But freshman DJ Lagway significantly helped to turn around Florida’s season, going 5-1 in his six starts. And he likely saved his head coach’s job in the process.

The Gators are outscoring opponents 32.5-17.5 on average during Lagway's starts. They've also scored on 91% of their red-zone trips compared to 64% of their red-zone scoring average allowed defensively.

Lagway was the first quarterback to lead Florida to consecutive wins over ranked opponents as an unranked team since 2003. He was a huge reason why Florida was one of six teams with multiple upset wins over top-25 squads.

The line movement from -11.5 to -13.5 for this spread is completely justified given the different directions these programs are heading in now. Florida finished the regular season with a three-game winning streak for the first time since 2019, and it should roll in this bowl game.

FanDuel is one of our few best sportsbooks where you can back the Gators at less than the standard -110 juice. That's where I'm heading to make my $10 wager and hoping for a payout of $19.52.

Our Rob Paul is also backing Florida in his college football picks against the spread.

Tulane vs. Florida best pick

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

DJ Lagway Over 1.5 passing touchdowns ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Florida is getting a projected team total of 31.5 points, which means Lagway comes in with a great chance to throw multiple touchdown passes for the third straight game.

Lagway is Florida’s fourth true freshman quarterback to start a bowl game, and the others went 2-1. He leads all FBS passers (minimum 100 attempts) with a 97.3 passing grade on deep throws (20-plus air yards).  

The passer also holds the school freshman record for passing yards in a game (456), and his 159.6 passer rating is ninth-best in a season during school history. Lagway has finished with a quarterback rating above 135.0 in five straight games, and he's gone over 150.0 six times.

The 19-year-old has posted five 40-plus-yard completions in his first two starts and 12 overall this season. 

He's also logged 14 big-time throws to just one turnover-worthy play on deep balls. Lagway comes with just as likely of a chance to throw a touchdown on a deep pass as he does in the red zone.

The Over on 1.5 touchdown passes is juiced as high as -120 through BetMGM (carrying a 54.55% implied probability). Over backers are getting the best value for this wager there while making one of their college bowl game predictions.

Tulane vs. Florida odds movement

The spread has continued to shift significantly in favor of Tulane, with Florida moving from a favorite of as much as 14 points to now down to 9.5 in some spots as of Friday around noon ET.

Similarly, the Gators have moved from a -449 favorite on the moneyline to now sit at -365.

Tulane vs. Florida odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Tulane vs. Florida live odds

Tulane vs. Florida opening odds:

  • Tulane: +11.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Florida: -11.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Tulane vs. Florida injuries

Gasparilla Bowl game info

  • When: Friday, Dec. 20
  • Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET 
  • Where: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
  • How to watch: ESPN2
  • Weather: 72 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph NW
  • Favorite: Florida -13.5 ()

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”