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Texas vs. Texas A&M Prediction & Picks: College Football Week 14

Matt MacKay

Last Updated: November 30, 2024 8:29 AM EST • 4 min 3 sec read.

Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed hands the ball off to running back Amari Daniels as we make our best Texas vs. Texas A&M prediction for the Lone Star Showdown.
Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed hands the ball off to running back Amari Daniels during warmups before the Aggies' game against Auburn. Photo by Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

The Lone Star Showdown has even higher stakes when the No. 3 Texas Longhorns take on the No. 20 Texas A&M Aggies in a huge SEC primetime game on Saturday night.

There are major implications for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff odds for the winner of this game. As part of our Week 14 college football predictions, I've outlined some of my favorite plays in our Texas vs. Texas A&M prediction. 

The Longhorns’ potent passing attack is led by QB Quinn Ewers, who has recorded multiple 300-yard passing games in 2024.

Texas rosters a top-three scoring defense and will look to punch their ticket into the College Football Playoff with a win in a hostile environment against the Aggies.

Find a spot on the couch for the opening kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET from Kyle Field in College Station, Texas, airing on ABC/ESPN+.

Our Phil Wood dove further into this matchup with his Texas vs. Texas A&M player prop bet odds and touchdown picks.

Texas vs. Texas A&M prediction & best bet

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Texas A&M +5.5 () vs. Texas ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Gunnar Helm Over 40.5 receiving yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texas vs. Texas A&M ATS prediction: Week 14

Texas A&M to cover the spread: +5.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%

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The Kyle Field advantage

Texas A&M gets home-field advantage in this game at Kyle Field, where the raucous fans will be ready to cheer on their Aggies in a must-win game. The Aggies have played well at home, although they did lose by 10 points to No. 5 Notre Dame to open up their schedule in Week 1. 

Texas A&M has beaten Missouri 41-10 and LSU 38-23 in its other two big SEC home games, so expect a similar energy and confidence following the Aggies’ 4OT loss on the road to Auburn in Week 13.

The Longhorns have played three road games and have looked shaky during the last two against Vanderbilt and Arkansas, so don’t discount the edge Texas A&M holds in this rivalry game at Kyle Field. 

The Aggies are getting +5.5 against the spread. Backing a home dog is always fun, especially when the stakes are elevated for a berth in the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Reed’s Improvement

Texas A&M’s quarterback, Marcel Reed, has quickly ascended when called upon as the Aggies’ QB1.

He’s filled in during injury and is back under center, recording a 62.9 percent completion rate in three starts since returning to lead the Aggies over LSU with three rushing touchdowns in late October. 

Since earlier in the season, Reed has improved quite a bit, and he has a dual-threat mobility that allows him to extend plays from the pocket. Running back Amari Daniels is a nice complimentary weapon in the backfield alongside Reed, so Reed earns 10-20 carries per game.

Texas is the third-ranked scoring defense, allowing only one opponent to finish with over 3.7 YPC (their 49-17 blowout win over Florida). The Longhorns’ run defense will meet its match against this explosive Aggies rushing attack, but Reed’s passing ability has improved, keeping Texas A&M within striking distance in the Lone Star Showdown. 

Reed has thrown for at least 200 yards in three straight games and has five passing touchdowns and 10 total touchdowns in 3.5 starts following his return against LSU a month ago. Texas A&M is good enough on both sides of the line of scrimmage to cover +5.5 at home with so much still at stake.

Texas vs. Texas A&M best bet

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Gunnar Helm Over 40.5 Receiving Yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

Quinn Ewers’ favorite target in the Longhorns offense has been tight end Gunnar Helm. Helm leads the Longhorns with 42 receptions and 544 receiving yards in 2024. 

We’ve seen Helm record over 40.5 receiving yards in five of his past six games. He’s caught at least three balls in seven straight games and recorded 41 or more receiving yards nine times this season. With a College Football Playoff seed on the line, Ewers will frequently target his reliable tight end throughout Saturday’s game. 

We’ve seen the Longhorns’ passing attack get into sync quickly in numerous outings this season.

Helm draws a favorable matchup, facing an Aggies pass defense that has allowed 240 or more passing yards in seven games, including big games against Michigan, Oklahoma, and Georgia. 

We’re benefitting from Helm being on the field in recent low-scoring, less high-stakes games against Florida, Arkansas, and Kentucky. He’ll smash the over on his total receiving yards prop on Saturday night, so let’s stake a unit on Helm to go over 40.5 against the Aggies.

Texas vs. Texas A&M odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Texas vs. Texas A&M Live odds:

Texas vs. Texas A&M opening odds:

  • Texas -5.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Texas +5.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Texas vs. Texas A&M game info

  • When: Saturday, Nov. 30
  • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Kyle Field (College Station, Texas)
  • How to watch: ABC/ESPN+
  • Weather: 54 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 3 mph SE
  • Favorite: Texas -5 (-112 via DraftKings)

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Written By:
Matt MacKay
Matt MacKay has handicapped golf, the NFL, NCAAF, and NHL since joining the sports betting industry as a writer in 2020. He’s worked for several prominent sites, recently expanding his coverage to include sports betting news and the regulatory industry. Bringing a background in communications and writing, earning a Masters Degree in Organizational Communication from Ohio University, Matt has co-hosted a fantasy football and sports betting podcast, while continuously refining his handicapping methods. This includes identifying recent trends, head-to-head statistics, and comparing individual and team strengths and weaknesses to accurately predict the outcome in certain betting markets before a game or event. He’s a daily bettor and tends to wager on FanDuel, with DraftKings and Hard Rock Bet as preferred sports betting app alternatives. An avid researcher, writer, editor, and podcaster, Matt is eager to dig into matchups to offer readers and subscribers value on his picks. He’s a big proponent of building bankroll by avoiding poor betting habits and tendencies, like chasing losses, placing too many wagers, and managing bankroll. His worst beats to date both came on two separate NFL parlays, losing due to Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown dropping passes. NRFIs have quickly become one of Matt’s favorite betting markets, recently diving into MLB game props.