Texas vs. Arizona State Prediction & Picks: CFP Peach Bowl Odds

The Texas Longhorns are the biggest favorite in any of the four College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups when facing the Big 12-winning Arizona State Sun Devils at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta.

• The Sun Devils won their first outright conference title since winning the Pac-10 in 1996
• Arizona State has won six games by one possession or less
• The Longhorns have the shortest college football championship odds entering the CFP quarterfinals

Our Texas vs. Arizona State prediction for the Peach Bowl agrees with the line movement toward the underdog Sun Devils. This pick is part of our college bowl game predictions this week.

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Texas vs. Arizona State prediction & best pick: CFP Peach Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Arizona State +12.5 () vs. Texas ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• My best pick: Sam Leavitt Under 0.5 interceptions () ⭐⭐⭐

Texas vs. Arizona State ATS prediction

Arizona State to cover the spread: +12.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

Arizona State has been defying odds all season

Arizona State went 3-9 in head coach Kenny Dillingham’s debut last year, and it was picked to finish dead last in the Big 12 preseason poll. However, all of the pundits underestimated how quickly the team could improve in one year, especially in the day and age of NIL. The Sun Devils brought in 23 transfers in the offseason, and 17 of them played in the Big 12 Championship Game. 

Arizona State’s offense is averaging more than 100 yards per game than it did last year. Defensively, the Sun Devils rank in the top 30 of SP+. 

This line feels disrespectful for a team that has continued to fly under the radar. It is also a tad inflated after Texas’ blowout win over a Clemson team that would not have even played for an ACC Championship had Syracuse not upset Miami in the final week.

Turnovers can loom large

Texas entered its game against Clemson ranked in the 99th percentile in havoc, passing success rate allowed, pass explosiveness allowed, and rush explosiveness allowed. It was also first in the country in yards per pass allowed.

However, the Longhorns aren't the only solid defensive team in this matchup - and turnovers can also be the great equalizer. Arizona State has forced 22 turnovers this season. As a result, the Sun Devils enter this game with a plus-14 turnover margin, boosted by a plus-3 margin against Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship.

Turnovers could impact the game heavily when facing Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, who has thrown four interceptions in his last three games, while Arizona State’s secondary has the fifth-most interceptions in the country.

Texas struggles away from Austin

Texas was rolling after a 34-3 neutral-site win over Oklahoma. However, that win lost a lot of luster when the Sooners finished with a losing record for a second time in three seasons under Brent Venables. Since then, Texas is 3-1 in road or neutral site games. But it only has a plus-20-point differential in those games, meaning it has won by an average of five points per game.

Arizona State is 4-0 against the spread versus ranked opponents this season, so I am backing the Sun Devils with four stars of confidence. DraftKings is the only top sports betting site where one can grab the 12.5-point spread at standard juice.

Texas vs. Arizona State best pick

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Sam Leavitt Under 0.5 interceptions ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +160 via bet365 | Implied probability: 38.46%

This could be the game that jumpstarts Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt’s 2025 Heisman Trophy campaign. Leavitt has completed 63% of his passes and has flashed big-play ability with an 8.82 yards per attempt (25% above expected). 

Leavitt entered the Big 12 Championship with just five interceptions on 287 pass attempts. He played turnover-free football again after posting an efficient 99.1 QBR against the Cyclones. While Leavitt will likely be asked to pass more in this game, he also has one of the best security blankets in the country in running back Cam Skattebo.

Skattebo’s 2,074 yards from scrimmage are a school record. He is also the only running back in college football to run for 1,000 yards and total 350 receiving yards. If Arizona State can get Skattebo going early, that will take a lot of pressure off of Leavitt.

Either way, getting a 38.46% implied probability for this wager at bet365 on a quarterback who has thrown just one interception in the last six games is a steal.

Texas vs. Arizona State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Texas vs. Arizona State live odds

Texas vs. Arizona State opening odds:

• Texas: -13.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
• Arizona State: +13.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Texas vs. Arizona State injuries

CFP Peach Bowl game info

• When: Wednesday, Jan. 1
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: Indoors
• Favorite: Texas -11.5 (-120 via BetMGM)

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