Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Prediction & Picks: Liberty Bowl Odds

For Friday’s Liberty Bowl, Texas Tech and Arkansas will look like different teams than the ones we saw during the regular season.

Our Texas Tech vs. Arkansas prediction for the Liberty Bowl expects Arkansas to benefit from QB Taylen Green sticking around. Texas Tech (-1) and Arkansas face off in the Liberty Bowl at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tenn., on Friday at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).

The below picks are part of our college bowl predictions. 

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds. 

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas prediction & best pick: Liberty Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

• Against the spread pick: Arkansas +1.5 () vs. Texas Tech ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• My best pick: Over 51.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas ATS prediction

Arkansas to cover the spread: +1.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -112 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%

Though the Razorbacks have numerous key contributors either transferring or opting out of the Liberty Bowl, dynamic dual-threat quarterback Green should have a chance to shine.

Frankly, the Red Raider defense wasn’t good enough to slow down Green even before the opt-outs began to flow. Texas Tech ranks 111th in scoring defense, allowing 33.0 points per game.

Can Texas Tech still exploit Arkansas’ weakness?

Arkansas’ weakness defensively is in the secondary, but with Texas Tech QB Behren Morton out due to injury, we’re expecting a slight efficiency deficit for a Red Raider passing offense that ranks 10th nationally in yards per game.

After Arkansas opened as the favorite, the spread has jumped around leading up to this game. We’ll take advantage of the line movement, targeting the Razorbacks at FanDuel, where they’re +1.5. A winning $10 bet will profit $8.93. 

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas best pick

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Over 51.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

After opening at 59.5, this total decreased to 51.5 and 52 across our best sportsbooks—so now feels like a great time to jump in on the Over.

The Red Raiders average 37.4 points per game and should surrender more than their fair share against Green and the Razorbacks.

Quick pace should mean plenty of points

Texas Tech’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks outside the top 70, but the metrics don’t consider it a bad enough unit to produce such a brutal scoring defense—at least not on its own. The Red Raider offense is partially responsible because of the lightning-quick pace it plays with.

Tech runs a play every 22.7 seconds, the seventh-fastest pace in college football. That has been trimmed to a frenzied 20.1 seconds per play in their last three games (the 2nd-fastest in FBS).

Thanks to offensive-player portal attrition cooling bettors on this total, we’re ready to jump in, as two top-50 offenses in adjusted efficiency should push one another in a game that still has sneaky shootout appeal.

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas live odds

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas opening odds:

• Texas Tech: +2.5 (-110)
• Arkansas: -2.5 (-110)

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas injuries

Liberty Bowl game info

• When: Friday, Dec. 27
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Where: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tenn.)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: 58 degrees, 49% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph SSW
• Favorite: Texas Tech -1 (-110 via BetMGM)

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