TCU vs. Texas Picks, Predictions College Football Week 11: Horned Frogs Look to Stay in CFP Contention
Last Updated: November 12, 2022 4:40 AM EST • 2 min 30 sec read.
TCU's record is still unblemished, but the Horned Frogs are sizable underdogs on the road in Austin. Read on for our TCU-Texas picks.
The sportsbooks seem to believe Texas is about to end TCU’s dream season on Saturday. The Longhorns are widely 7.5-point favorites over an undefeated team with a top offense.
Here are our TCU-Texas college football picks for Week 11 (odds via FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our college football Week 11 roundup, games to watch, and best against-the-spread picks.
TCU vs. Texas Game Info
Date: Saturday, Nov. 12, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Location: DKR Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Weather: 44 degrees, 0% Precipitation, 4-mph winds
TCU vs. Texas Odds
TCU vs. Texas Odds Analysis
Texas opened as 6.5-point home favorites over the unbeaten Horned Frogs. The number has moved further toward the Longhorns beyond the key number of 7, as Texas is -7.5 (-110) at both DraftKings and FanDuel. TCU is getting 58% of the cash and 69% of the tickets.
The total opened at 65 and remained there, with the Over priced at -105 through DraftKings. FanDuel lists the total at 65.5 (-110). Currently, 92% of the cash and 86% of the tickets are on the Over.
TCU vs. Texas Picks
TCU vs. Texas ATS Pick
TCU +7.5 (-110) ★★★
With College GameDay on campus in Austin, the Longhorns will burst the CFP bubble of their rivals from the north and win. But the Longhorns have only beaten one team (Oklahoma) across seven games against Power 5 teams, making the spread feel disrespectful to the accomplishments of the No. 4 team in the nation.
TCU possesses the offensive firepower to keep up with Quinn Ewers and the Texas attack. The Horned Frogs rank 11th in the country in offensive efficiency, and they haven't scored fewer than 34 points in any game this season.
If that consistency from TCU carries into this game, it will force the Longhorns to put up 40-plus points to cover this spread. The Longhorns own a top-tier offense that ranks No. 13 in efficiency. However, they've scored north of 40 points just once in seven games against Power 5 foes.
Barring a season-best performance from the Longhorn's defense, TCU should keep this game within a possession. The Horned Frogs are 3-0-1 on the season.
TCU vs. Texas O/U Pick
Under 65.5 (-110) ★★★
TCU is 6-3 to the Over on the season, with six of its eight games against FBS opponents clearing this total. However, the Texas defense could be a factor that helps the Under cash.
The Longhorns have allowed more than 30 points in a game only twice in 2022, and that hasn’t happened at all during a Texas home game. The Over has only cashed during four of the Longhorns' games in 2022.
Texas is allowing only 21.8 points per game. Though I like TCU to score above that total and keep the game close, a contest with two units that rank among the top 40 in defensive efficiency may not turn into a shootout. When 92% of the money is on one side, it could be time to fade the public.
TCU vs. Texas Prop Pick
Quinn Ewers Over 263.5 Passing Yards (-114) ★★★★
Quinn Ewers has cleared this passing total in two of his five full games in 2022. Though his yardage production has been inconsistent during Ewers' first college football season, the matchup against the Horned Frogs should provide opportunities to do damage.
TCU ranks 94th in the FBS in pass defense while allowing 255.4 yards per game through the air. Game environments against the Horned Frogs often lead to plenty of opportunities to throw, as teams attempt to play catch-up against them. Though that may not be our projected script for Saturday, the air is definitely the way to attack TCU regardless of the score.
Where to Bet on TCU-Texas Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
TCU-Texas picks made 11/12/2022 at 4:45 p.m. ET.
Brenden Schaeffer
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