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South Florida vs. San Jose State Prediction & Picks Tonight: Hawaii Bowl Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 24, 2024 5:00 PM EST • 4 min 30 sec read.

San Jose State quarterback Walker Eget throws a pass against Oregon State. We're backing the Spartans in our South Florida vs. San Jose State prediction.
San Jose State quarterback Walker Eget throws a pass against Oregon State. Photo by Craig Strobeck via Imagn Images.

While some are anticipating Santa on Christmas Eve, others will be enjoying the Hawaii Bowl between San Jose State and South Florida at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) from the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu.

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds.   

South Florida vs. San Jose State line movement

San Jose State opened as 2.5-point favorite across our best sports betting apps, but saw the line move further in its direction with most books offering the Spartans at -4.5. That was until Nick Nash opted out, and the line came back down to -2.5.

Only 36% of the money is on South Florida to cover, with 64% backing the Spartans. The game total has risen to 64.5 with 54% of the money on the Over.

South Florida vs. San Jose State prediction & best pick: Hawaii Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: San Jose State () vs. South Florida ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: San Jose State to score the longest touchdown () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

South Florida vs. San Jose State ATS prediction

San Jose State to cover the spread: -3.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -104 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.98%

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San Jose State is more battle-tested

San Jose State did not drop off in its first season under Ken Niumatalolo. The Spartans won seven games, as they did in three of the last four years under Brent Brennan. The impressive part this time around was that San Jose State reached this mark with a tough non-conference schedule.

The Spartans lost one-possession games to Washington State (in double overtime) and Colorado State. They were also tied with College Football Playoff odds long shot Boise State at halftime and held a six-point halftime lead on then No. 24-ranked UNLV.

USF does not fare well against winning teams

South Florida may have six wins entering this game, but it has not beaten a team with a winning record in the last two seasons. South Florida lost by 26, 35, 35, 18, and 21 points against teams that ended the regular season above .500.

The Spartans' defense should be up to the task

South Florida has balance offensively, especially in the running game, with three players who have run for 414 or more yards. But San Jose State has faced several talented running backs, including Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty, and has held up considerably well with impressive metrics.

The Spartans entered their season-finale against Stanford ranked 77th in Rush Success, but 36th in Line Yards, and 37th in Pass Success. More importantly, San Jose State was 42nd in Finishing Drives and started the Stanford game strong with three turnovers forced and one field goal in the first four drives.

San Jose State has the experience of playing in the Hawaii Bowl last year, and this year, I expect it to avenge its 24-14 loss to Coastal Carolina. The Spartans thrived in non-conference games (5-0 ATS) as opposed to conference games (1-6 ATS), so I am backing them to cover the spread in this bowl matchup.

FanDuel has the best price among our best college football betting sites (-104).

South Florida vs. San Jose State best pick

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

San Jose State to score the longest touchdown ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -145 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 59.18%

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San Jose State employed an aerial attack in its last game against Stanford, allowing quarterback Walker Eget to chuck it 49 times. The aggressive gameplan resulted in three touchdown passes of 18-plus yards.

Eget has attempted 49 or more passes in two of the last three games, so the odds are high that the Spartans could break off a longer score than the run-heavy Bulls.

This is a four-star play, as San Jose State has scored the longest touchdown of the contest in nine of its 12 games this season, while South Florida only did so in half of its matchups. Through DraftKings’ -145 odds, a $10 winning wager would profit $6.90.

Our Gabe Henderson makes his best South Florida vs. San Jose State player prop picks.

South Florida vs. San Jose State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

South Florida vs. San Jose State live odds

South Florida vs. San Jose State opening odds:

  • South Florida: +2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • San Jose State: -2.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

South Florida vs. San Jose State line movement

The spread has gone on a bit of a journey after starting with San Jose State as the 3-point favorite. It fell to -6 at one point earlier in the week before gradually working back to now sit around -2.5 or -3.

Meanwhile, the total opened at 61.5 before falling to 60.5. But it's since rebound and then some while sitting at 63.5. 

South Florida vs. San Jose State injuries

Hawaii Bowl game info

  • When: Tuesday, Dec. 24
  • Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
  • How to watch: ESPN/ESPN+
  • Weather: 84 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, wind 8 mph ENE
  • Favorite: San Jose State -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

College football betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”