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South Carolina vs. Illinois Prediction Today: Citrus Bowl Picks & Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 31, 2024 12:00 PM EST • 4 min 15 sec read.

South Carolina Gamecocks tight end Joshua Simon celebrates the touchdown as we make our South Carolina vs. Illinois prediction for the Citrus Bowl.
South Carolina Gamecocks tight end Joshua Simon (6) celebrates the touchdown. Photo by Steve Roberts-Imagn Images.

The South Carolina Gamecocks take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in today's Citrus Bowl. Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla., will play host to the contest, with kickoff set for 3 p.m. ET (ABC). 

Our South Carolina vs. Illinois prediction for the Citrus Bowl expects the SEC team in scorching form to continue its run. Our best sports betting sites list South Carolina as an 8.5-point favorite.

Both teams are searching for 10 wins today in their first-ever meeting. However, it's the Fighting Illini who will look to break a losing streak that's seen them go without a bowl win since 2011.

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds. 

South Carolina vs. Illinois prediction & best pick: Citrus Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: South Carolina -10 () vs. Illinois ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Joshua Simon anytime touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐⭐

South Carolina vs. Illinois ATS prediction

South Carolina to cover the spread: -10 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Illinois will not ground-and-pound against South Carolina

When Illinois had offensive success this year, it came with a successful ground-and-pound approach that kept it out of third-and-long situations. It will not have as much success doing that against a Gamecocks defense that ranked fourth in the SEC, with 106.3 rushing yards per game allowed.

Illinois’ only game throwing for over 250 yards was against 1-11 Purdue. Pushing the ball downfield becomes even more difficult in this matchup as the Fighting Illini are without their top wide receiver, Pat Bryant, who accounted for 38% of the team’s receiving yards and 48% of receiving touchdowns. 

Illinois becomes more susceptible to a pass rush without its top perimeter threat, and South Carolina is two sacks shy of tying its single-season record of 42 set in 2012. That does not bode well for Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer, who took 31 sacks this year.

Big step up in competition for Illinois

South Carolina has the 11th-ranked scoring defense (17.8 points per game allowed) in the country. While Illinois is comparable at 22.1 points per game allowed (26th), the Gamecocks did it in the SEC. The latter nearly cracked the top 10 in yards per play allowed despite playing a top-20 schedule, per Jeff Sagarin.

South Carolina finished the season on a six-game winning streak, which included three wins over teams ranked in the top 25 at the time of playing them (Texas A&M, Missouri, Clemson). Conversely, Illinois did not beat a single top-25 team this year.

Illinois also averaged 5.8 yards per play against Big Ten opposition. But it did not do well against Penn State and Oregon, scoring just 16 total points as Altmyer threw for one touchdown and three interceptions.

The Under has cashed in Illinois’ last six games against teams ranked in the AP top-15. While many signs point to the Fighting Illini struggling to score, I have enough faith in South Carolina’s offense that it will cover for the 10th time in 13 games. BetMGM offers this play at standard juice.

South Carolina vs. Illinois best pick

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Joshua Simon anytime touchdown scorer ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +220 via Caesars | Implied probability: 31.25%

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South Carolina is playing its first game without former offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains, but I expect the new play-caller to continue to get the ball in the hands of one of the team's most reliable pass-catchers.

Tight end Joshua Simon is currently tied with former Gamecocks tight end Clyde Bennett with six touchdowns, and one more will set the single-season school record for touchdowns by a tight end. Meanwhile, quarterback LaNorris Sellers needs 50 yards and three touchdowns to break Todd Ellis’ school freshman records.

Simon’s six receiving touchdowns are double what the next-highest Gamecocks pass-catcher has, and I expect the duo of Sellers and Simon will hook up one more time for a score.

The value on this wager at Caesars is tremendous, as Simon’s anytime touchdown odds are as low as +145 at FanDuel. Through Caesars’ +220 odds, a $10 winning wager would net $22 in profits.

South Carolina vs. Illinois odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

South Carolina vs. Illinois live odds

South Carolina vs. Illinois opening odds:

  • South Carolina: -11.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Illinois: +11.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

South Carolina vs. Illinois odds movement

South Carolina opened up as an 11.5-point favorite at BetMGM following the Gamecocks' College Football Playoff snub. The line was sitting around 10-to-10.5 points in the days leading up to kickoff. However, there has been a drastic shift in the spread today.

South Carolina is now just an 8.5-point favorite, and with all of the money at our best sportsbooks going to the Gamecocks, it seems some unknown personnel news impacted the line.

South Carolina vs. Illinois injuries

Citrus Bowl game info

  • When: Tuesday, Dec. 31
  • Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
  • Where: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Fla.)
  • How to watch: ABC
  • Weather: 78 degrees, 40% chance of precipitation, wind 14 mph WSW

College football betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”