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SMU vs. Penn State Prediction, Picks & Odds Today: College Football Playoff

Gabe Henderson

Last Updated: December 21, 2024 9:00 AM EST • 3 min 51 sec read.

Southern Methodist Mustangs defensive end Elijah Roberts in action against the California Golden Bears, and we offer our top SMU vs. Penn State prediction.
Southern Methodist Mustangs defensive end Elijah Roberts in action against the California Golden Bears. Photo by Jerome Miron via Imagn Images.

After an exciting opening day of College Football Playoff action, which featured Notre Dame holding on to beat Indiana, we roll on with this showdown between the SMU Mustangs and Penn State Nittany Lions.

Beaver Stadium plays host to this contest at noon ET (TNT/Max) on Saturday, and our SMU vs. Penn State prediction believes in the underdogs.

Penn State ranges from an 8-point to 9.5-point favorite at home against SMU, as our best college football betting sites aren't quite in agreement when it comes to this game. That tells us this could be tricky to predict, which is why we have you covered with the best advice as part of our College Football Playoff best bets for the opening round.  

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds. 

SMU vs. Penn State prediction & best pick: College Football Playoff

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread prediction: SMU +9.5 () vs. Penn State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Over 53.5 () ⭐⭐⭐

SMU to cover the spread: +9.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -125 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 55.56%

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The Mustangs' offense is explosive

SMU has one of the most explosive offenses in the country. The Mustangs rank sixth nationally in scoring offense (38.5 points per game), and they failed to score 28 points just once, at BYU early in the year.

Penn State has easily the best defense that SMU has seen to date. But the Mustangs showed in the second half of the ACC Championship Game that they can hang with the perennial powerhouses. Kevin Jennings and Co. are a big reason I believe the visitors can keep this contest close after hanging 31 on Clemson.

The Nittany Lions have struggled to cover the spread this year, doing so at a less than 50% clip (6-7). Meanwhile, Rhett Lashlee's men posted a 61.5% cover rate during their debut campaign in the ACC.

We're not brave enough to pick the Ponies outright given Penn State is 59-11 at home under James Franklin over the past nine seasons. However, we'll take SMU to cover, even if the price is juiced (-125). BetMGM is the only one of our best sportsbooks to offer the Mustangs at a 9.5-point spread.

SMU vs. Penn State best pick

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Over 53.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%

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What do you get when two top-25 offenses in college football clash? More often than not, a lot of points. This is what we'll hope for as we project SMU and Penn State to go Over 53.5 points.

SMU has been one of the country's better teams toward the Over with an 8-5 record. While Penn State leans under (7-6 to the total for the year), it's not enough to talk us off this prediction.

The offenses average 72.1 combined points per game despite playing in two of the country's toughest conferences. The Mustangs and Nittany Lions have also seen their games surpass the 53.5-point mark 13 times this year, including each of their respective conference championships.

Caesars offers this play at standard juice, which carries an implied probability of 52.38%. A $10 winning wager on the Over would profit $9.09.

College Football Playoff expert picks

SMU vs. Penn State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

SMU vs. Penn State live odds

SMU vs. Penn State opening odds:

  • SMU: +8.5 (-152)
  • Penn State: -8.5 (+105)

SMU vs. Penn State odds movement

This line has moved all over the place since opening. DraftKings has Penn State as an 8-point favorite while BetMGM has moved it to -9.5. 

The majority of the action has been on the favorite, though, contrary to our pick. 

SMU vs. Penn State injuries

College Football Playoff game info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 21
  • Kickoff: Noon ET
  • Where: Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.)
  • How to watch: TNT/Max
  • Weather: 27 degrees, 46% chance of precipitation, 16-mph wind NW
  • Favorite: Penn State -8.5 (-115 via BetMGM)

College football betting odds pages

Here are our best college football betting sites:

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Written By:
Gabe Henderson
Gabe Henderson is a sports betting writer from Houston, Texas. He graduated from Louisiana State University in 2022 with a bachelor's degree in Mass Communication. Gabe developed an interest in sports betting while in college due to its legalization in Louisiana. He turned his passion into a career shortly after, joining The Advocate/NOLA.com as a Sports Betting Content Coordinator, where he spent two years. Gabe wore many hats before graduating as he led FanSided's coverage of Chelsea FC as a Site Expert with "The Pride of London." He was also the Editor-in-Chief of the LSU Gumbo Yearbook for two years. Gabe became a part of the 520ccc.com team in late 2024. He brings with him an extensive knowledge of many sports, including — but not limited to — NFL, NCAA, MLB, NBA, soccer, and UFC. Sports betting has not yet been legalized in Gabe's home state of Texas, so he frequently takes trips to Louisiana when he has the itch to place futures. Outside of work, Gabe considers himself an old head as he used an AOL email account until 2022 and still collects vinyl records.