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SMU vs. Penn State Early Picks, Predictions & Odds: College Football Playoff

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: December 16, 2024 4:09 PM EST • 2 min 59 sec read.

Penn State tight end Tyler Warren runs for a gain against Oregon. We're backing the Nittany Lions in our SMU vs. Penn State early leans.
Penn State tight end Tyler Warren runs for a gain against Oregon. Photo by Robert Goddin via Imagn Images.

SMU had to sweat out the CFP Selection Show after losing the ACC Championship to Clemson. Though the Mustangs made the playoff field, they could struggle in the first round with the same thing that cost them against the Tigers.

Our SMU vs. Penn State early picks and odds envision a productive day for the explosive Nittany Lion offense. Penn State (-8.5) hosts SMU at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa. on Saturday at noon ET (TNT, Max).

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My early SMU vs. Penn State prediction: College Football Playoff

College football picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Penn State -8.5

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Heading into the ACC Championship, we backed an underdog Clemson side that we believed should have been favored against SMU. That was due to the Mustangs’ uninspiring efforts defensively any time they faced a capable offense this season.

The same concept applies as SMU travels to Happy Valley this weekend. SMU has faced three opponents (TCU, Louisville, and Clemson) that rank among the FBS top 25 adjusted offensive efficiencies, and allowed 34.3 points per game to those opponents. 

Penn State ranks 4th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, better than any SMU opponent to date. The Nittany Lions are also 12th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency - better than any SMU opponent to date.

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SMU vs. Penn State live odds

See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites for every college football bowl game.

Moneyline

  • Penn State best odds: -310 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 75.61%
  • SMU best odds: | Implied probability: 27.78%

With odds at -310, DraftKings provides a small edge for those looking to lay the heavy odds to back Penn State, or to include the pick in their parlays. Our other best sports betting sites list the Nittany Lions between -320 and -350.

Caesars, BetMGM and bet365 all list SMU at +260, slightly better than the +250 and +255 odds from DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively.

Spread

  • Penn State best odds: -8.5 (-110) via DraftKings
  • SMU best odds: +8.5 (-105) via BetMGM

The line opened at Penn State -8 at most of our best sports betting apps and has moved across the board to -8.5. As of Monday, the best odds you’ll find for betting the favorite are -110 at DraftKings, Caesars, or bet365.

Grabbing SMU +8.5 at BetMGM lands bettors improved -105 odds compared to between -108 and -110 at other shops.

As the week evolves, I look for the public to push its chips on home teams for the first round of on-campus playoff matchups in college football history.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds:
  • Under best odds: 54.5 (-115) via BetMGM

The number has ticked up since opening at 52.5. After both SMU and Penn State engaged in shootouts during championship weekend, we could see this number get pushed higher throughout the week.

For now, FanDuel is the best spot for value on the Over, with the number at 53.5 as opposed to 54 or 54.5 at other shops.

How to watch SMU vs. Penn State

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 21
  • Kickoff: Noon ET
  • Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa.
  • How to watch: TNT, Max
  • Weather: 27 degrees, 30% chance of precipitation, wind 12 mph NW
  • Favorite: Penn State -8.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.