College Football Futures: Win Total Bets For The 2022-23 College Football Regular Season

Which college football programs will exceed expectations in 2022, and which ones will let fans down? We've identified five win total markets to target heading into next year. Here are our college football futures win total bets for the 2022-23 regular season.

August is here, so college football season is drawing near. There's no better time to lock in your futures bets before all the value gets stripped off the board. Markets that once looked promising in early August could look very different by month’s end.

The books tend to overrate popular teams and underrate less popular ones because of where public money goes. As a result, I’ll play the Under on bad big-market teams and the Over on good smaller-market ones.

We’ll also fade teams with new coaches. Instead, we’ll target teams with coaches who have a year or two to build their program but who must improve to keep their jobs.

Here are my top regular-season win total picks for the 2022-23 college football campaign (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, Pointsbet, and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College Football Regular-Season Win Totals Futures Betting Picks

TCU Under 6.5 (+125 via FanDuel) ?????Baylor Over 7.5 (-145 via PointsBet) ????Utah Over 8.5 (-140 via PointsBet) ????Vanderbilt Over 2.5 (+145 via FanDuel) ????Florida State Over 6.5 (-130 via BetMGM) ???

What Are The Best College Football Regular-Season Win Total Bets For 2022-23?

TCU Under 6.5 (+125)

The markets don’t know what to do with the Big 12. Baylor, which leads in preseason polling, is a +600 underdog to win the conference. Its win total sits at 7.5.

In contrast, seventh-ranked TCU’s win total sits at 6.5, and you can buy the Under at plus-money.

The Horned Frogs scored an impressive home upset over Baylor last year, but they’ll face the Bears in Waco this season. Additional road matchups against Texas and Oklahoma State should end in defeat, as should the home matchup against Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs would need to beat two of Iowa State, Kansas State, and West Virginia to go Over this number, and I don’t see them doing that with turnover in the coaching staff and at quarterback.

Baylor Over 7.5 (-145)

The books are undervaluing Baylor. Preseason conference polling may not mean much, but it’s ludicrous for the current conference polling leader and defending champion to have a lower win total than Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. The Bears lost a pair of running backs to the NFL in the offseason, but their above-average offensive line will return four starters. I expect them to have an edge on the ground again.

Lincoln Riley’s departure from Oklahoma means Baylor could leave Norman with a win. But the Bears’ schedule doesn’t require such an upset for this bet to hit.

Baylor has home dates against Albany, Texas State, Kansas, Kansas State, and TCU, all of which should be wins. Its road trips to West Virginia and Texas Tech should end in wins, too. The Bears will need to beat just one of Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, BYU, or Oklahoma State to go Over this number.

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Utah Over 8.5 (-140)

We’ll head to the Pac-12 for a play that will be off the board by the time the season starts. The Utes’ win total sits at nine - with the juice on the Over - at most books. But PointsBet is behind the times, so we’ll play this market there.

The Utes have won at least nine games in all but two of their seasons since 2014, and that’s counting their 3-2 performance in 2020. Look for Utah to sweep its non-conference games against Florida, Southern Utah, and San Diego State. The Utes should also win their home games against Oregon State, Arizona, and Stanford.

Road trips to Colorado and Washington State should put them at eight wins, meaning the Utes will probably just need to beat one of UCLA, USC, and Oregon.

Vanderbilt Over 2.5 (+145)

OK, this is a bit of a homer pick, but Clark Lea could surprise some folks in his second season. Lea earned his undergraduate and graduate degrees from Vanderbilt, so it’s clear he doesn’t just see Nashville as a stepping stone. Furthermore, he landed one of Vanderbilt’s best recruiting classes in years.

The Dores are favored to win their opening matchup at Hawaii. Their home stand against FCS Elon, who went 6-5 last season, should be another win. Vanderbilt will probably then lose to Wake Forest at home, but beating Northern Illinois on the road - or a weak SEC team like South Carolina or Missouri - would be just enough for a +145 hit.

Florida State Over 6.5 (-130)

Few franchises have fallen more than the Florida State Seminoles. Before their 5-7 season in 2018, the Noles hadn’t recorded a losing record since 1976. They’ve yet to earn a winning record since.

However, third-year head coach Mike Norvell could right the ship in 2022. He improved from 3-6 to 5-7 last year, so another two-win improvement would cash this bet. Norvell will get most of his offensive linemen back, and the Noles added Bless Harris at tackle in the offseason. The unit should improve enough to power Norvell’s run-heavy offense to a seven-win season.

Look for Florida State to win its home stands against Duquense, Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Louisiana. Road trips to Syracuse and Louisville are also winnable. From there, the Noles just need to beat a bad Florida team at home. An upset road win against NC State isn’t unrealistic, either.

Where to Bet on College Football Futures Bets

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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