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Pittsburgh vs. Toledo Prediction & Picks Today: GameAbove Sports Bowl Odds

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 26, 2024 9:05 AM EST • 3 min 57 sec read.

Toledo Rockets wide receiver Junior Vandeross III against the Wyoming Cowboys as we look at our Pittsburgh vs. Toledo prediction.
Toledo Rockets wide receiver Junior Vandeross III against the Wyoming Cowboys. Photo by Mark J. Rebilas-/USA Today sports.

Two teams are hoping to end losing streaks to conclude the season when the Pittsburgh Panthers and Toledo Rockets meet at Ford Field in Detroit for the GameAbove Sports Bowl.

Pittsburgh surged to begin the campaign, starting 4-0 while ascending to 18th in the AP poll. However, the good vibes soon ended when the Panthers dropped their last four regular-season contests.

Meanwhile, Toledo was widely selected to take second in the MAC in the preseason poll. But then the Rockets stumbled and didn't get to the conference championship while finishing with a 7-5 record, going a disappointing 4-4 in conference play.

It's a matchup the Panthers have been thriving in historically while going 34-5 all-time against MAC teams.

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds.  

Pittsburgh vs. Toledo prediction & best pick today: GameAbove Sports Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Pittsburgh -6.5 () vs. Toledo ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Toledo team total Under 20.5 (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Pittsburgh to cover the spread: -6.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Seniors will lead Panthers

Several teams with plenty of transfers have produced subpar performances in their bowl games. However, Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi remained  that 90% of his seniors would play in this GameAbove Sports Bowl.

Pittsburgh’s season changed after quarterback Eli Holstein suffered an ankle injury. The Panthers were 7-0 heading into their top-20 showdown with SMU before that issue.

But Holstein only appeared in three games after that and didn't finish any of those contests. The team also lost five straight to end the season.

No confidence in Rockets' offense

For as bad as Pittsburgh looked at times without Holstein under center to end the season, Toledo was worse.

Any chances Toledo maintained of reaching the MAC Championship were vanquished when it totaled just 21 points in two losses to Ohio and Akron. The loss to the Zips was particularly surprising, as Akron hadn't beaten Toledo since 2013.

Toledo now faces a Pitt defense that's been living in opponents’ backfields all season. The Panthers rank third nationally in sacks (averaging 3.3 per game), and fourth in tackles for a loss (8.3 per contest).

The only player on defense in the transfer portal for Pittsburgh who played more than 115 snaps this year is defensive tackle Nakhi Johnson. The Panthers figure to boast an experienced unit ready to slow the Toledo attack.

Coaching matters in bowl games

Teams with experienced coaching staffs often get an advantage in preparation when given multiple weeks off to prepare for bowl matchups.

A Pittsburgh win would be its eighth this season, and head coach Pat Narduzzi already holds the most eight-win campaigns (five) of any Panthers head coach since 1990.

Since Narduzzi took over in 2015 he's guided Pitt to 46 ACC wins, trailing only Clemson and Miami during that span. 

I also don't buy into playing in Detroit favoring Toledo, as the Panthers are 2-0 in Detroit-based bowl games (1-0 under Narduzzi).

Panthers backers would be wise to head to FanDuel for their wager, as it's alone among our best sportsbooks while offering a spread lower than the key number of seven. Through its -115 odds, a $10 winning wager at FanDuel would pay out $18.70 for one of your college bowl game predictions this week.

Pittsburgh vs. Toledo best pick

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Toledo team total Under 20.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -102 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 50.50%

The Panthers boast the personnel to make Toledo a completely one-dimensional team in this bowl matchup.

The Rockets rank outside the top 120 in rush explosives, quality drives, and rushing success rate, and they face a Panthers defense sitting third in line yards.

Pittsburgh’s ability to stop the run will allow it to focus more defensive attention on Toledo’s wide receiver duo of Jerjuan Newton and Junior Vandeross, who have combined for over 1,700 receiving yards.

The Panthers should also utilize a more ball-control-oriented game plan offensively, especially if walk-on freshman David Lynch is under center.

The -102 juice FanDuel charges for this wager is a appealing compared to the -115 odds at DraftKings.

Pittsburgh vs. Toledo odds movement

The line for this tilt has commonly shuffled from -9.5 when it opened in early December with Pittsburgh as the favorite to now -7. A -6.5 spread was even available briefly a few days ago.

Meanwhile, the total has mostly shifted downward since the opening number of 51.5, though not significantly. It now rests at 50 at our best sports betting sites during the hours before kickoff. 

Pittsburgh vs. Toledo odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Pittsburgh vs. Toledo live odds

Pittsburgh vs. Toledo opening odds:

  • Pittsburgh: -9.5 ()
  • Toledo: +9.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Pittsburgh vs. Toledo injuries

GameAbove Sports Bow game info

  • When: Thursday, Dec. 26
  • Kickoff: 2 p.m. ET 
  • Where: Ford Field (Detroit, Mich.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Pittsburgh -7 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”