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Penn State vs. Oregon Player Prop Picks & Touchdown Prediction: Big Ten Championship

Philip Wood

Last Updated: December 7, 2024 12:03 PM EST • 3 min 40 sec read.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar drops back to throw a pass as we make our Penn State vs. Oregon player prop picks for Saturday's Big Ten Championship.
Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) drops back to throw a pass. Photo by Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

The Penn State Nittany Lions will look to pull off an upset of the Oregon Ducks in tonight's Big Ten Championship.

When making the best Penn State vs. Oregon player prop picks, it’s important to remember the defenses are as good as the offenses. Both teams average over 33 points per game, so it’s fair to expect some Overs to hit. But the defenses are holding opponents to fewer than 16.4 points per game.

The Ducks are favored by 3.5 points at the best college football betting sites leading up to the 8 p.m. ET kickoff (CBS) from Lucas Oil Stadium. Which players must show up to earn the victory and who needs to step up for the Nittany Lions to spring the upset?

Penn State vs. Oregon college football player prop picks: Big Ten Championship

Odds as of Friday and subject to change.

  • Tez Johnson touchdown prediction: Anytime touchdown scorer () ⭐⭐⭐
  • Jordan James Under 95.5 rushing yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Drew Allar Under 200.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Penn State vs. Oregon touchdown prediction

Tez Johnson anytime touchdown scorer (+110) ⭐⭐⭐

In what is sure to be a lower-scoring game than either of these teams is used to playing, fetching the right price for this prop is key. Tez Johnson is the only consistent scorer whose price is set above +100. Meanwhile, leading scorers such as Nicholas Singleton, Tyler Warren, and Jordan James, each have prices listed at -120 or worse with the best sports betting apps.

But Johnson has nine touchdowns this season, and he’s caught at least one in all but three of his games. While the Nittany Lions’ pass defense is excellent, Dillon Gabriel has thrown at least one touchdown in all but one of his games. If he throws one in this game, which I think he will, Johnson is the most likely recipient of that pass.

Prices for this prop range from -110 to +100 at the best sportsbooks. With Caesars currently offering the worst price, the sportsbook is implying there is a greater than 50% chance that Johnson scores. BetMGM's +110 odds, meanwhile, carry an implied probability of 47.62%.

Best odds: +110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 47.62%

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Best Penn State vs. Oregon prop picks

Jordan James Under 95.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Earlier this week, when I made my Penn State vs. Oregon prediction, I mentioned this prop as my best play of the game. Despite Jordan James being one of the most consistent backs in the country, this number is set too high.

James is averaging around 17 carries per game, but getting 17 carries in this contest likely won’t be enough to push him over this number, as the Nittany Lions’ defense allows just 3.1 yards per carry. James averaged 5.0 yards per carry against the Ohio State Buckeyes earlier this season, but he’s averaged fewer than that in two of his last three outings.

Every major sportsbook has this prop set at 95.5 yards. Two of the sportsbooks are offering -115 odds, while FanDuel is offering -114.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

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Drew Allar Under 200.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Drew Allar has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four games this season, including in his toughest matchup of the year against the Buckeyes. In that contest, he had only 146 yards through the air.

The Ducks are allowing just 171.8 passing yards per game, which is nearly 30 yards more than the Buckeyes, but it’s still top-10 in the country. Allar hasn’t faced a defense this good in a long time. While I don’t expect him to have a bad game, I think the Ducks hold him to around their season average, meaning this number is set about 20 yards too high.

Every major sportsbook has the same total listed, with FanDuel offering a slightly better price than the rest.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Penn State vs. Oregon game info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 7
  • Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Oregon -3.5 (-105 via FanDuel)

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.