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Penn State vs. Oregon Early Picks, Predictions & Odds: Big Ten Championship

Philip Wood

Last Updated: December 2, 2024 12:49 PM EST • 3 min 38 sec read.

Oregon inside linebacker Bryce Boettcher in a game against the Washington Huskies, and we offer our top Penn State vs. Oregon early picks.
Oregon inside linebacker Bryce Boettcher in a game against the Washington Huskies. Photo by Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard via USA TODAY NETWORK/Imagn Images.

The college football championship odds favorite Oregon Ducks meet the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday.

Based on the early Penn State vs. Oregon predictions and odds, our best sports betting sites expect the Ducks to claim the Big Ten title in their first year in the conference. However, it won’t be easy, as they’re favored by only 3.5 points over the 11-1 Nittany Lions.

The Ducks are 12-0, and only three of their wins have been by just one possession.

Can the Nittany Lions stay close in Saturday’s 8 p.m. ET (CBS) game at Lucas Oil Stadium, or will the Ducks add another blowout to their resume?

We're looking at this game so much more as part of our college football conference championship predictions.

Be sure to track any changes in this game with our updated Penn State vs. Oregon prediction.

My early Penn State vs. Oregon prediction for the Big Ten Championship

College football picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Under 49.5

Best odds: | Implied probability: 52.38%

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The Ducks’ offense has scored at least 30 points in all but two games this season. They just put up 49 against the Washington Huskies, and in their biggest challenge of the year, they scored 32 against the Ohio State Buckeyes. And yet, the Under is the right play in this game.

The Nittany Lions are allowing just 14 points per game. They have held five of their last six opponents to 20 points or fewer, and they’ve given up more than 20 just three times this season.

Additionally, even if the Ducks and their ninth-ranked scoring offense can put up points in this game, I’m not so sure the Nittany Lions can do the same.

Though the Ducks are known for their offense, their defense is allowing just 16.4 points per contest.

The Nittany Lions are averaging over 30 points per game, but they scored just 13 against the Buckeyes, and they managed only 21 against the Illinois Fighting Illini. Those are the only two ranked opponents that Penn State faced all year.

Either this is going to be a very close game, or the Ducks will blow the Nittany Lions out. In either scenario, the Under is the play.

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Penn State vs. Oregon live odds

See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites for every Week 15 game.

Moneyline

  • Oregon best odds: -162 via | Implied probability: 61.83%
  • Penn State best odds: +148 via | Implied probability: 40.32%

The Ducks’ price ranges from -162 to -175, and the Nittany Lions’ ranges from +136 to +148. I’m not expecting much movement, as I expect both teams will see their share of support on the moneyline.

Getting the Nittany Lions at +148 will be very enticing for some bettors, especially since the only loss they suffered this year was at the hands of Ohio State in a one-possession game.

Spread

  • Oregon best odds: -3.5 (-108) via DraftKings
  • Penn State best odds: +3.5 (-110) via BetMGM

At first glance, this spread seems way tighter than it should be. The Ducks have defeated eight opponents by at least 20 points this season, yet, in their only two games against truly formidable opponents, they won by a combined four points.

The Nittany Lions have exhibited similar dominance throughout much of the season, but I expect this spread to grow before kickoff. The main reason will be the battle between the quarterbacks. Dillon Gabriel has been in the Heisman Trophy odds conversation this season, while Drew Allar hasn’t done anything special. Gabriel’s performance this season will help this spread grow as large as 4.5.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 49.5 (-110) via BetMGM
  • Under best odds: 50.5 (-115) via

Four of the five best sports betting apps have this total set at 49.5.

FanDuel has it set at 50.5, but the price for the Under is -115, suggesting that this number will drop to 50 before long. Considering this game features two high-powered offenses and two top-10 scoring defenses, I’m expecting nearly equal support on both the Over and the Under.

Though I’d be surprised to see this drop below 49, I’d still get in on the Under now, as this becomes much less enticing at 48.5 or 47.5.

How to watch Big Ten Championship

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 7
  • Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • Where: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Oregon -3.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil has covered sports betting since 2016, and he has been with SportsBook Review since 2022. He previously hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast for CanesInsight.com. He is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is that if a line doesn't make sense just assume oddsmakers know something you don't. He also loves in-season futures. There is so much value to be had as the public overreacts weekly. Bettors tend to forget just how long NFL and college football seasons are. After all, the Green Bay Packers were 2-5 in 2023 and they made it to the Divisional Round. When deciding where to bet, it comes down to value over everything. +100 is always better than -110. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. He is also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and is willing to forgive Dan Campbell for forgetting that a kicker can be useful.