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Penn State vs. Boise State Prediction & Picks: CFP Fiesta Bowl Odds

Rob Paul

Last Updated: December 30, 2024 4:53 PM EST • 3 min 47 sec read.

Penn State tight end Tyler Warren runs with the ball against SMU in the College Football Playoff. We're backing Warren in our Penn State vs. Boise State prediction.
Penn State tight end Tyler Warren runs with the ball against SMU in the College Football Playoff. Photo by Matthew O'Haren via Imagn Images.

After hammering SMU in the opening round of the College Football Playoff, Penn State has to slow down Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty and Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. at 7:30 p.m. ET on New Year's Eve.

  • Our Penn State vs. Boise State prediction for the CFP Fiesta Bowl expects the Nittany Lions' talent in the trenches to be the difference
  • Boise State (+8500) has the longest college football championship odds of the remaining eight teams
  • Jeanty was the Heisman Trophy odds runner-up while Penn State's Tyler Warren finished seventh

Our college football bowl game opt-out tracker has you covered with the latest opt-out news and the impact on the college bowl game odds. 

Penn State vs. Boise State prediction & best pick: CFP Fiesta Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Penn State -11 () vs. Boise State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Tyler Warren Over 76.5 receiving yards () ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Penn State vs. Boise State ATS prediction

Penn State to cover the spread: -11 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%

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No team in the country has truly been able to slow down Jeanty this season, but Boise State hasn't had to face a defender as dominant as Abdul Carter. He's the key to shutting down the Broncos' offense, and if they can't score, they'll likely fall behind and face a game script that keeps them from feeding their star.

Penn State's defense ranks No. 6 in the nation in and is allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game (100.4). It's not just Carter, either, as the Nittany Lions' dominant front seven also features NFL talent in Kobe King, Zane Durant, and Dani Dennis-Sutton.

If that group can slow Jeanty, the pressure will be on Boise State QB Maddux Madsen to keep this game close. Unfortunately for him, Carter and Dennis-Sutton are among the best pass-rushing duos in college football and play in front of a loaded secondary led by Jaylen Reed, so keeping up with Penn State just doesn't seem plausible.

It's Allar time

While Drew Allar has already announced he's returning to Happy Valley next season, his play down the stretch had him climbing the 2025 NFL Draft odds. He's arguably the most talented QB left in the CFP, and Boise State could be in trouble.

Behind Allar, the Nittany Lions are No. 2 in EPA per dropback on offense, and this is a Boise State defense that has struggled throughout the season. The Broncos are just 47th in on defense and 53rd in EPA per dropback.

Slowing Allar's efficiency on top of having to deal with Warren and the one-two punch of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen is a big ask for a Group of 5 team. If Penn State's talent shows out and covers, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

Penn State vs. Boise State best pick

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Tyler Warren Over 76.5 receiving yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Only two non-quarterbacks/running backs finished in the top 10 of Heisman voting: winner Travis Hunter and Warren. The Mackey Award winner has been unstoppable all year and will likely be a top-20 pick in April.

So how is Boise State going to stop a tight end who put up 84 receiving yards on Oregon? Warren can win vertically, after the catch, or in 50/50 situations - he's top three in the country in yards per route run (2.81) and contested catches (11) among tight ends and top 20 in YAC per reception (6.8), per .

His size and athleticism are going to be too much for a Boise State defense that allowed the third-most passing yards per game in the Mountain West (246.8). If Warren exceeds this total for the fourth time in six games, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

Penn State vs. Boise State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Penn State vs. Boise State live odds

Penn State vs. Boise State opening odds:

  • Penn State: -10 (-110)
  • Boise State: +10 (-110)

Penn State vs. Boise State injuries

CFP Fiesta Bowl game info

  • When: Tuesday, Dec. 31
  • Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: Indoors
  • Favorite: Penn State -11.5 (-108 via DraftKings)

College football betting odds pages

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Written By:
Rob Paul
Rob is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He’s been with the team since early 2024, with this being his first full-time role in the sports betting industry. Before joining 520ccc.com, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network. During that period, he spent five years working full-time as a local community journalist, after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history. He previously hosted an NFL draft and college football-focused podcast where he had the opportunity to interact with future NFL players such as Maxx Crosby and Quinn Meinerz. Rob has spent multiple years working as a freelance podcast producer for numerous sports-related podcasts while making guest appearances on several college football shows. He’s also made guest appearances on SportsTalk Mississippi on several occasions to talk all things NFL draft. Rob values the way sports betting acts as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball. He’s always been drawn to the more obscure teams and conferences in major college sports, but most of all, Rob loves using stats to find the best player props to back.