Penn State vs. Boise State Parlay Picks & Predictions: CFP Fiesta Bowl SGP Odds

The Fiesta Bowl matchup between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Boise State Broncos has the second-highest O/U (53.5 points) of any of the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, which means there should be plenty of opportunities to help cash our three-leg same-game parlay.

• Penn State is an 11-point favorite, its second time being favored by nine or more in a CFP matchup
• This is Boise State’s first appearance in a CFP game
• Penn State’s college football championship odds are tied for the shortest of any of the four teams in its half of the bracket

As we continue our college bowl game predictions this week, my Penn State vs. Boise State parlay picks for the Fiesta Bowl back a three-leg parlay at +654 odds that would net $65.40 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

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Penn State vs. Boise State parlay predictions: CFP Fiesta Bowl

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites.

• Either player first touchdown scorer: Ashton Jeanty or Nicholas Singleton (+135) ⭐⭐⭐
• Drew Allar Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100) ⭐⭐⭐
• Ashton Jeanty Over 16.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Combined odds: +654 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 13.26%

SGP predictions for Penn State vs. Boise State

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Either player first touchdown scorer: Ashton Jeanty or Nicholas Singleton (+135) ⭐⭐⭐

This wager combines the two players with the shortest first touchdown odds into one wager that still pays +135 odds. It also covers the best running back on both teams, doubling our chances of cashing no matter which team is the first to find the endzone.

Getting coverage on a Boise State player to score first is important since Penn State has allowed the first touchdown in three of its last four games.

Meanwhile, Singleton was the first Penn State player to find the endzone for his team in two of his last three. 

Singleton is as consistent as they come in finding the end zone, as he has scored either a rushing or receiving touchdown in five consecutive games. 

Singleton is Penn State’s preferred early goal-line back, as his previous two rushing touchdowns have come from one and two yards away.

Drew Allar Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100) ⭐⭐⭐

Penn State would prefer to dominate opponents with its strong ground game instead of letting Allar chuck it all over the field. While weather played a part in the game plan, it was evident that the Nittany Lions did not want to ask too much of their quarterback in the first round, as he attempted just 22 passes.

As long as this game does not turn into a track meet, I am happy to back Allar's under for 1.5 passing touchdowns at plus-money odds. Allar has thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in three of the last four games and six of the previous eight.

While Boise State's defense entered the Mountain West Championship ranked 82nd in pass success, it was also a top-20 unit in terms of Havoc ranking. That could pose trouble for Allar, who was pressured on 30.5% of his dropbacks entering the SMU game.

Ashton Jeanty Over 16.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Penn State held SMU to 58 yards rushing and 1.6 yards per carry, improving upon its top-25 ranking in rush success defense and No. 4 ranking in line yards entering the matchup.

I expect Penn State to load the box and make Boise State throw early and often and for the game script to eventually force the Broncos to abandon the run earlier than they would like.

The Broncos will be sure to get the ball in their Heisman Trophy odds runner-up’s hands early and often, but will likely need to resort to using him as a pass catcher to be most effective. 

Jeanty has only gone over this projected total twice this season, while staying under 16 receiving yards in five straight. 

But this is a nice contrarian play to round out this parlay, especially for those who agree that Boise State will be trailing late and passing more to keep up.

Penn State vs. Boise State live odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

CFP Fiesta Bowl game info

• When: Tuesday, Dec. 31
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
• How to watch: ESPN
• Weather: Indoors
• Favorite: Penn State -11 (-110 via BetMGM)

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